199
FXUS66 KEKA 170849
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1249 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and gusty winds are forecast to continue through
Monday. Breezy winds, scattered showers, and isolated
thunderstorms in Mendocino County are possible through the day
Monday. An extended period of cold overnight lows with widespread
frost and interior freezing temperatures could begin overnight
Monday. Additional rain possible Wednesday or Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Periods of moderate to heavy rain (rates of 0.3 to 0.5
inches an hour) occurred late Sunday night for mostly Humboldt
and Del Norte counties. This prompted a Flood Advisory for mostly
urban and small stream flooding for these counties. Persistent
moderate to heavy rain in southern Lake County has also prompted a
Flood Advisory for urban and small stream flooding. The minor
flooding threat is expected to subside for the area early this
morning. Storm total precipitation amounts range from 1-2 inches,
with localized areas of over 2.5 inches in the higher terrain.
Snow levels are forecast to drop this morning to 4500-5000 ft,
which may bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to Highway 3 at Scott
Mountain Pass.

Behind the front that moved through the area early this morning,
northerly winds will continue to increase through the day today.
They will especially increase along the coast and at higher
elevations, with gusts generally from 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 40
mph for higher terrain areas. Increasing instability will support
wind gusts of 25-35 mph along the coast into Monday afternoon and
evening. Instability could support isolated thunderstorms in the
waters and for the coastal areas south of Cape Mendocino. Winds
could exceed 40 mph around these thunderstorms, should any develop.

Behind the front a much colder and drier airmass will be over our
area. Widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures can be
expected Monday night and Tuesday night if cloud coverage holds off.
NBM shows high chances (>=50%) for temperatures below 36F in
Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and northern Lake counties. Chances for
freezing temperatures of 32F or less are ~30-50% in the coldest
valleys of Trinity County. High temperatures will also be cooler,
with even the warmest valleys struggling to reach 60. Overnight lows
will remain chilly through next week as values begin to align closer
to seasonal norms.

Most ensemble members are in agreement in an additional system
arriving mid to late this week, returning wet weather to the area.
Confidence on impacts is low at this point, but rain, gusty winds,
and mountain snow are all possible. Stay tuned. JB/JJW



&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...A strong front brought in moderate to heavy
rainfall and gusty southerly winds. A sharp windshift occurred to
start the breezy northerly winds. The heaviest rainfall wrapped up
with the passing of the front early Sunday morning. IFR to TEMPO
LIFR CIGS and VIS occurred with the heavy band of frontal rainfall.
The northerly winds will increase Monday afternoon while light rain
and light showers maintain chances for MVFR CIGS. Winds will ease
Monday evening when a general trend to VFR takes place. JJW


&&

.MARINE...Gale conditions developed in all zones Sunday
evening. A strong front brought a burst of strong southerly winds
followed by a sharp switch to gale strength northerly winds. These
winds will continue to produce gale strength gusts into Monday
night with a tight pressure gradient against a developing low to the
south. Thunderstorms are forecast across mainly the southern waters
around Cape Mendocino and southward. A building long period
northwest swell will combine with the steep northerly short period
seas to create significant waves height upwards of 17 ft . and
hazardous seas. Conditions expected to briefly calm into Wednesday,
but another potent storm may crank the southerly winds back up later
Wednesday. JJW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450-470.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM
     PST this evening for PZZ450-470.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png