087
AXPZ20 KNHC 191524
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N120W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection prevails across the Panama Canal. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from 30N113W to just south of
Punta Eugenia to 24N123W. A surface trough continues to weaken
ahead of the front from 25N116W to 20N127W. Behind this front, a
1012 mb low is analyzed near 30N120W, with trough extending from
the low to 28N129W. Scattered showers are ongoing across the
northern Baja California and its offshore waters as well as the
Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail behind
the front with rough seas in long-period NW swell. In the
northern Gulf of California, the front is supporting moderate to
fresh SW winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient elsewhere support mainly gentle winds with slight to
moderate seas in NW swell, except for slight seas in the
remainder Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE while gradually
weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by tonight. Rough
seas in the wake of the front will continue to propagate across
the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu
morning. A new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja
California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large
swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Cabo San Lucas
through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 89W along with moderate seas. Elsewhere
across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds
and slight seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf
of Panama. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate S
winds prevail with moderate seas. Scattered moderate to strong
convection prevails in the Panama Canal due to the proximity of
the monsoon trough to the N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate
seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night.
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front extends from 30N113W to just south of
Punta Eugenia to 24N123W, then it becomes even weaker to 21N140W.
A surface trough continues to weaken ahead of the front from
25N116W to 20N127W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh NW winds behind the reinforcing front between 120W and
127W. Seas are rough in long-period NW swell N of 24N between
118W and 130W. A surface ridge is across the remainder
subtropical waters behind the fronts, supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E winds elsewhere between the ITCZ and 25N to the W
of 125W.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE while gradually
weakening, and dissipate along 25N by this afternoon. The swell
associated with the front will propagate across much of the
waters W of Baja California before subsiding Thu. High pressure
in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone through Thu. The
next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters tonight into
Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low
pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move
southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong
winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with the
low.

$$
ERA