127
AXPZ20 KNHC 100725
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over the eastern slopes of Mexico and lower
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Recent ASCAT scatterometer passes missed the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec but did show fresh to strong winds extending well
away from the source region to 13N98W. The area of high
pressure will weaken by sunrise, which will loosen the pressure
gradient and diminish winds below gale-force. Very rough seas,
peaking around 12 or 13 ft, will start to subside by sunrise as
the winds gradually diminish. Please read the latest High Seas
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N103W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N103W to 10.5N116W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 98W and 106W, and from 05N to 12N between 122W
and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N
between 113W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec until
around sunrise today. Please see the Special Features section
for more information.

Aside from conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a ridge
extends from high pressure located N of the area to across the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is
supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of California as
depicted in recent ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometer passes.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period NW swell
are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish by early this morning, with fresh to
strong winds continuing though the end of the week. Winds over
Tehuantepec will diminish on Sat before strengthening again on
Sat night, possibly reaching gale-force again Sun night. Moderate
to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will gradually diminish
through Wed night. Fresh N winds may develop near Cabo
Corrientes today through tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo per recent
ASCAT data, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 06N, except
locally moderate in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to locally
moderate southerly winds prevail S of 06N. Seas are mainly
moderate in mixed SW and NW swell, with exception of slight seas
nearshore from Colombia northward, while seas are moderate to
locally rough well offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing to
moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong at
times. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough.
Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama. Seas across
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, generated
by a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, will
subside later this morning. Otherwise, moderate seas in mixed SW
and NW swell are expected over the regional waters through the
week and into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the
monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 115W, except fresh to strong from
13.5N to 20N and W of 135W as noted in recent ASCAT data. Seas
are in the 5 to 8.5 ft range over these waters per recent
altimeter data, highest S of 18N and W of 122W. Moderate winds,
and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the discussion
waters.

For the forecast, little change to the synoptic pattern and
marine conditions are expected through the middle of the week,
with winds weakening somewhat later in the week as the pressure
gradient weakens. A new set of long period NW swell is forecast
to reach the NW part of the forecast region by this evening,
building seas to 8 to 9 ft over these waters before subsiding by
the end of the week. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient may
tighten again by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky