794
AXPZ20 KNHC 071601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 19.8N 110.1W at 07/1500
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with
gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Abundant convection
is noted within 210 nm in the northwest semicircle of the
hurricane, and within 180 nm in the southeast semicircle. A
continued northwestward motion is expected over the next couple
of days, followed by a turn toward the north Thu night or
Fri. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected
to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of west- central
Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
Additional strengthening is expected, and Priscilla is forecast
to become a major hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to
begin on Wed and continue through the rest of the week.

Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact portions of
Baja California Sur today into Wed. Its moisture will lead to
heavy rainfall across west-central Mexico from today into
Thursday morning and across the U.S. Desert Southwest from late
this week into this weekend, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Swells
generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions of the
coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are
likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.7N 119.1W at 07/1500
UTC, moving east-southeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active within 120 nm in the southwest
semicircle of the storm. Little change in strength is expected
through tonight, followed by gradual weakening and dissipation by
late Thu as Octave moves to about 120 nm to the south of Socorro
Island.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla and Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1008 mb
low pressure near 13N91W, then on to 15N98W. Another segment
continues from 13N124W to 11N135W. The ITCZ extends from 11N135W
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
03N to 06N east of 82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active from 10N to 15N between 87W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

An outer rain band associated with Priscilla extends from the
southern Gulf of California to across the southern tip of Baja
California. This is likely bringing very rainfall to the area
around Los Cabos. Farther south, dangerous marine conditions are
impacting the waters from Michoacan to Jalisco and toward
Socorro Island and Los Cabos. Farther south, scattered
thunderstorms, moderate to fresh winds and building seas are
likely across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, associated
with a 1008 mb low pressure area off the coast of Guatemala.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between both hurricanes
Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave, and a broad ridge extending
SE to near 120W is supporting moderate NW winds and moderate seas
in NW swell off Baja California. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 20.5N 111.2W this evening, 21.5N 112.5W
Wed morning, and 22.6N 113.8W Wed evening. Priscilla will weaken
to a tropical storm west of Cabo San Lazaro near 23.7N 114.9W by
Thu morning, then continue to 25.1N 115.4W Thu evening, and
26.3N 115.5W Fri morning. Priscilla will weaken to a remnant low
near Punta Eugenia by early Sat. Farther south, Tropical Storm
Octave is about 300 nm to the southwest of Clarion Island, near 15.7N
119.1W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving east-southeast at 6 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Octave is forecast to still
be a small tropical storm around 120 nm south of Socorro Island
Thu afternoon, before weakening to a remnant low and dissipating
by Fri morning. Looking ahead, the area of low pressure is
expected to become better organized off the southern coast of
Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more favorable for gradual development of this system
later this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the weekend while moving west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, near
or parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Interests along the
coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 48 hours, and high chance through the
next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. A 1008 mb low pressure area
continues to become more organized off the coast of Guatemala.
North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and moderate
seas are noted, except moderate S to SW winds in the Nicaragua
offshore waters near the low pres. Moderate southerly winds and
moderate seas prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the north of
it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region
bringing moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 15.3N 118.2W this evening, 15.3N 116.7W Wed
morning, 15.9N 114.6W Wed evening, 17.0N 112.2W Thu morning,
weaken to a tropical depression near 17.9N 110.0W Thu evening,
and dissipate by late Thu night into Fri morning. Farther south,
southerly swell to 8 ft will impact waters near the Equator
between 95W and 120W through Wed. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

$$
Christensen