659
AXPZ20 KNHC 180941
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 09N115W to
08N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N125W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 07N E of 82W, and
from 01N to 11N between 126W and 140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 13N between
112W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A former stationary front dissipated and its remnants are
analyzed as a surface trough from 26N112W to 17N126W. A new cold
front is now sinking into the Baja California Norte, stretching
from 30N117W to 25N125W to 25N136W. Recent scatterometer data
show moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is
also bringing rough seas to 11 ft in long-period NW swell, which
will start affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia this morning.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are also ahead of the front in the
northern Gulf of California where seas are up to 4 ft. A weak
pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds
with moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the
remainder Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong
speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold
front today and then again tonight. Seas will build to 6 ft
during the strongest winds. The cold front will move SE,
reaching Punta Eugenia this evening while gradually weakening,
and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the
wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters
N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Otherwise, a new cold front is
forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu
night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to 12 ft to the
waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 88W. Elsewhere across the Central America
offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to
locally moderate from the south, however seas are slight to
moderate.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to
prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of
Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at
night. Seas are forecast to build to 5 or 6 ft with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A former stationary front dissipated and its remnants are
analyzed as a surface trough from 26N112W to 17N126W. A new cold
front is now sinking into the Baja California Norte, stretching
from 30N117W to 25N125W to 25N136W. Recent scatterometer data
show moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is
also bringing rough seas to 11 ft in long-period NW swell, which
are already affecting the waters N of 25N between 120W and 133W.
Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 127W, a surface ridge prevails,
being anchored by a 1026 mb high center located near 32N138W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
present.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through
early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long
period NW swell. This swell will propagate across much of the
waters N Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Thu. High pressure in
the wake of the front will support fresh to locally strong winds
and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through
Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the
NW waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and
rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure
is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by
Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be
associated with this low.

$$
Ramos