189
AXPZ20 KNHC 222106
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell over the northern waters:
A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 28N117W. The pressure
gradient present across the offshore waters W of the Baja
California Norte is supporting near gale force winds W of the
low. The low will shift further eastward through the weekend
while weakening. This will loosen the pressure gradient and
further diminish winds. This system has ushered in a large set of
NW swell. Very rough seas greater than 12 ft are currently N of
25N between 118W and 126W. These rough seas will subside below 12
ft tonight. Seas are currently peaking near 14 ft.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N103W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N103W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 12N between 116W and 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

An area of low pressure is over the Baja California Norte waters
with fresh to strong winds prevailing N of 24N. Fresh to strong
N winds are also noted over the northern section of the Gulf of
California and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-14 ft range W of Baja
California Norte. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range over
the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will shift across the
Baja California Norte waters through tonight, generating fresh
to strong NW to W winds with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of Baja California Norte. Large NW swell
accompanying this low will spread over the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo
Islands through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N
gap winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds to strong are over the Papagayo region, with
moderate winds downstream of Papagayo to near 91W. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected to
pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region into early next
week, except pulsing to strong Sun night. Moderate or lighter
winds are forecast elsewhere during the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

Aside from the winds and seas associated with a low pressure
center over the northern waters, the pressure gradient between a
1027 mb high pressure centered near 36N136W and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh winds N of the
ITCZ and W of 120W. Outside of the large swell area described
above, NW swell is propagating across the waters N of 15N, with
seas in the 8-12 ft range W of a line from 26N114W to 14N140W.
Seas of 8-10 ft are also over the waters N of the ITCZ to 15N
and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft
prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters.

The low will progress eastward into the Baja California Norte
waters through tonight, with fresh to strong winds following the
low. Rough seas of 8 ft or greater generated from this system
will propagate across the area, covering much of the discussion
waters N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend before starting to
slowly subside early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue over the waters N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 110W
through the middle of next week.

$$
ERA