200
AXPZ20 KNHC 212117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell over the northern waters:
A cold front enters the discussion waters near 30N119.5W to
25N126W to 25N140W. The front has ushered in a large set of NW
swell. Very rough seas greater than 12 ft are currently N of 27N
and W of 122W, and will shift SE across the waters N of 25N and
W of 117W through Sat before subsiding below 12 ft. Seas will
peak near 17 ft tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N120W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted N of 05N and E of 85W, and from 06N to 08N and W of
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A cold front is analyzed from 30N117W to 23N130W to 24N140W.
Moderate NW winds are noted on either side of the front, while
fresh SW winds prevail in the northern Gulf of California waters.
Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the rough range N of 27N, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
Slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a secondary push of cold air accompanied by an
area of low pressure will quickly follow the cold front tonight
through Sat night, generating fresh to strong NW to W winds with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of Baja
California Norte. Its associated front will usher in a set of
large NW swell, which will spread over the waters west of the
baja California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo
islands through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N
gap winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Sat
night to Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are
expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds continue to pulse over the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the moderate range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected to
continue pulsing over and downstream of the Papagayo region into
early next week. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast
elsewhere during the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A 1009 mb gale-low is centered N of the area near 31N122W. A
cold front extends from 30N117W to 23N130W to 24N140W. Strong to
near gale winds are noted in the southern quadrant of the low,
reaching the waters N of 28N between 120W and 130W. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail N of the front. A 1032 mb high pressure is
centered near 35N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 21N and W of 130W.
Seas over these waters are in the rough to very rough ranges.
Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

The cold front will progress quickly southeastward today, and is
forecast to dissipate by Sat morning as it reaches 20N. Strong
to near gale winds will follow the low pres as it moves into the
waters W of the Baja California Norte on Sat, and dissipates on
Sun. Rough seas of 8 ft or greater generated from the frontal
system will propagate across the area, covering much of the
discussion waters N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend before
starting to slowly subside early next week. The area of high
pressure northwest of the discussion waters will weaken tonight
and Saturday. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the
tradewind zone, with the trades diminishing.

$$
ERA