Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
901 FXUS64 KEWX 141748 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm through next week, record highs possible Sunday through Tuesday. - Rain chances return (30-60%) for middle to late next week however confidence continues to remain low on timing. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Quiet in the short term as our area remains under decent upper level ridging through the period. it will remain warm and muggy as low level southerly flow continues to pump in moist air from the Gulf with dew points in the low to mid 60s likely. This humid airmass will likely keep low temps elevated several degrees above seasonal averages for this time of year with many areas remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s, some 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will similarly be nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal with many locations feeling like a second summer out there with highs well into the 80s. We don`t cool off much as the combination of upper level ridging and decent southerly flow help to keep all the moisture locked into place over our area. Expect lows Saturday night to be similar to tonights with many remaining in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Looking ahead, by sunday the upper-level ridge stays in our area to start the weekend before elongating and shifting east by Monday ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the Intermountain West. This allows for our area to really heat up as warm mid level southwesterly flow helps to boost temperatures area wide as a weak surface trough develops over TX and OK. Temperates under this scenario could really heat up with several daily highs being tied or broken Sunday through Tuesday(records in the upper 80s). Along with really moist air, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s it`l feel very summery out there. By mid week global models are suggesting that as the upper level ridge flattens out and pushes off to the east an incoming trough digs its way down into the desert southwest and eventually makes its way east somewhere across TX or OK. Right now model consistency form run to run is quire poor thus any solution could pan out with some models bringing the trough north and eastward swinging it through northern TX into OK. Other models and ensemble members suggest a more zonal faster approach with the latter solution becoming very favorable for the possibility of heavy rainfall and even severe weather. Regardless, there remains uncertainty among the models and their respective ensembles and AI versions with respect to the timing, track, and strength of a mid level trough and its attendant surface cold front. It likely won`t be until possibly next week that the initial impulse is first sampled and observed by upper-air stations on the West Coast. Once this happens we will likely have a more confident forecast in how this trough and scenario evolves. For now have gone with a more blended approach by capping pops in the 30- 60% range. Continue to check back often as these details become clearer in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Thick stratus are hugging the escarpment at TAF issuance time, so another hour of MVFR skies are expected for SAT, while AUS/SSF/DRT have broken out to VFR. Mixed winds from aloft will keep a few hours of SW wind components across I-35 with late day directions swinging back to true S or SSE. DRT winds will continue to follow typical diurnal trends of SE daytime to E nighttime. A good ridge amplitude from TX into the central CONUS means the pressure gradient will be light to moderate, leading to more hours of early to late morning cigs for Saturday. Some occasional ceilings from 500 to 900 FT AGL are possible close to daybreak. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 62 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 60 84 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 57 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 62 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 62 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...18