Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
638 FXUS64 KEWX 152336 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 536 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of rain (20-40%) increasing for Tuesday into Wednesday - Well above normal temperatures expected by late week into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Cooler temperatures continue for this afternoon as we remain influenced under surface high pressure. As this high pressure slides off to the east we will see winds switch back from the south helping to boost temps somewhat. For tonight with the increased southerly flow expect temps to remain slightly warmer and above freezing for all areas with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s west and upper 30s to low 40s east. By Tuesday expect highs to be about 10 degrees warmer than today with many seeing low to mid 60s especially in the southern parts of our area as southerly low level flow continues to bring in moisture. In fact several hi-res models and cam solutions are suggesting that we could have enough moisture to wring out a few showers and even some isolated thunderstorms for Tuesday evening as a shallow trough works its way from Mexico eastward across the area. Additionally our previous cold front looks to move back up into our area as a shallow warm front also helping to enhance any precip chances. We arent expecting a lot of rain with this due to how shallow this disturbance is however some areas could see a tenth to maybe a quarter of an inch especially under any thunderstorms. Lows tuesday night will be significantly warmer with the abundant moisture and abundance of clouds with many areas seeing lows dip only into the 50s and even some low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 The long term can be categorized as abnormally warm with a few brief cool downs. With westerly zonal flow aloft and increasing southerly flow from the surface to 700mb we should have no trouble rapidly warming up through the period especially for Thursday. Until then temps will continue there slow warming trend with Wednesday`s highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Tuesdays. Thursday we really heat up with many areas approaching 80 degrees before a weak cold front looks to impact the area by Thursday afternoon. This front will bring nothing more then a wind shift causing winds to switch to the north before southerly flow once again takes hold by late afternoon early evening Friday. Highs on Friday look to cool into the 70s in the wake of this front before ramping up and once again and approaching the 80 degree mark for Saturday and beyond. Lows during this period also will remain much warmer with many staying in the 50s and 60s each night. Additionally, beyond Wednesday we continue to remain dry as most of the systems continue to remain well to our north as we look to stay in this zonal pattern for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Mid to upper level clouds have been on the increase throughout the day as a storm system takes shape over the Desert Southwest. This will be responsible for the rapid increase in low to mid level moisture, resulting in a scattered layer moving in after midnight, and filling in as a BKN to OVC layer at 2500 feet by mid to late morning at SAT and SSF. It will take a bit more time for MVFR ceilings to reach AUS, likely in the late afternoon to early evening timeframe. Have introduced PROB30s at AUS and SAT for SHRA and increasing confidence in rain at terminals after 00Z Wednesday. Ceilings will also begin to fall after 21Z Tuesday, with the HREF indicating a 50-80% chance of ceilings less than 1k feet after 00Z Wednesday at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Have left ceilings above 1k feet for now out of the prevailing categories as AUS and SAT, but that may need to be introduced with the 06Z TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 42 62 55 70 / 0 0 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 63 54 69 / 0 0 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 40 62 54 69 / 0 0 30 30 Burnet Muni Airport 42 61 52 68 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 46 63 50 71 / 0 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 41 63 53 68 / 0 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 42 60 51 72 / 0 10 40 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 40 63 54 69 / 0 0 40 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 39 64 56 70 / 0 0 30 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 44 61 55 70 / 0 10 40 30 Stinson Muni Airport 44 63 56 71 / 0 10 40 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...MMM