Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
449 FXUS64 KEWX 291800 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and east of I-35 tonight. - Strong cold front tonight bringing gusty winds and colder air. - Wind chills as low as the 20s forecast Sunday morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. - Cool temperatures continuing into the workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Some drier mid-level air is moving over the preexisting stratiform clouds over South-Central Texas as a mid-level shortwave axis passes across the area as indicated on water vapor imagery. This has allowed for more broken to scattered cloud cover compared to previous days, supporting warmer temperatures this Saturday afternoon. Over the Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor, a few bands of convergence are noted within the axis of greater onshore flow and greater instability, which are already supporting light to moderate showers. Further development of isolated to scattered showers and storms is expected mostly after sunset as ascent increases ahead of an approaching cold front and slight interaction with the diurnal seabreeze occurs. A few storms could produce locally heavy rains and become strong to marginally severe, with isolated potential for large hail and wind gusts up to about 60 mph. There is also a low-end potential for a brief tornado or two. The SPC has highlighted a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) risk for severe weather along and east of the I-35 corridor, though the modeled environment suggests slightly higher severe potential for the Coastal Plains into East Texas compared to what will likely be the western fringes of activity along the I-35 corridor. Somewhat slow storm motions and 1.0-1.4" PWATs imply the potential for locally heavy downpours, though the more favored locations have more receptive soils and thus the risk of flash flooding appears isolated and limited at this time. A strong polar cold front is barreling southward and is forecast to accelerate through South-Central Texas tonight. The leading edge of the front could reach the northern Hill Country as early as 7-8 PM, surging across the US-90 corridor close to midnight and sweeping across the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains in the wee hours of the morning. Showers are possible along the front itself, though the strong winds and cold air arriving behind the front will tend to keep that activity weak, in addition to weakening and pushing the preexisting showers over the Coastal Plains south. Speaking of those winds, a chilly and strong north wind is anticipated through Sunday morning. The HREF and REFS short-range ensembles are in good agreement that gusts will likely exceed 35 mph across most of the region (above a 60 percent chance for most), and the strongest gusts could be in the 40-45 mph range over the Coastal Plains and in the foothills of the southern Edwards Plateau. The wind will magnify the spread of cold air across the area. Temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 30s north of I-10, but wind chills could dip into the 20s over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and north of the Austin area close to sunrise. Dress warmly and make sure any loose outdoor objects and holiday decor are secure. Clouds are expected to remain draped across the area Sunday afternoon, keeping temperatures cool. Forecast highs are only in the 40s and 50s, and most areas outside of the Rio Grande Plains will likely be spending most of the day below 50 degrees. Breezy conditions are expected to continue through Sunday, but winds will gradually subside in the afternoon and evening. Lows are forecast to drop back into the 30s to low 40s throughout the area Sunday night into Monday morning, though winds will be much lighter than Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Generally cool to cold weather is expected to continue as a broad troughing pattern persists over CONUS. A pair of upper-level disturbances will promote development of a coastal low on Monday and chances for rain mainly for the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. Patchy freezes remain possible each morning mainly for low-lying areas between at least Monday and Wednesday, though persistent clouds could limit radiational cooling and gradual upward trends in low temperatures have been noted in the latest model guidance. Rain chances increase later in the week as troughing amplifies over the Intermountain West and promotes divergent flow aloft over Texas. A slight warming trend heading into next weekend is depicted in the current NBM, though intervening shortwaves embedded in the persistent longwave trough could bring brief pushes of cooler air late in the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Lingering MVFR ceilings across the region improve to VFR levels in the next few hours and will continue to remain VFR at least through sunset. A strong cold front then plunges southward before midnight with a short opportunity for some showers and perhaps an isolated storm at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). The thunder probabilities are higher east of the terminals and will keep any mention of thunder out of the TAF package for now. MVFR ceilings do return along and in the wake of the front from the overnight into Sunday morning. VFR conditions return towards or beyond midday Sunday. Winds decrease temporarily just ahead of the front. Once front moves through, winds turn northerly and increase to much breezier levels with gusts persistently in the 30 kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 43 47 40 47 / 40 10 30 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 42 47 39 48 / 50 10 30 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 49 40 48 / 50 10 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 39 44 38 48 / 30 10 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 49 51 44 59 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 40 47 38 48 / 40 10 20 40 Hondo Muni Airport 46 52 42 55 / 20 10 30 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 43 48 40 48 / 50 10 30 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 44 48 41 48 / 80 10 40 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 46 51 42 51 / 40 10 30 40 Stinson Muni Airport 48 52 43 50 / 40 10 30 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62