Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
533 FXUS64 KEWX 110012 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 612 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freezes could be possible Tuesday morning within low- lying valleys and rural areas near the escarpment, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Prairies - Critical fire weather conditions across majority of South- Central Texas on Tuesday; elevated within Dewitt, Karnes, and Lavaca counties - Warming trend ahead of a weekend storm system that brings medium (20-50%) rain and storm chances && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Surface high pressure builds into the region today, providing a cool, clear afternoon with the wind speeds on the decrease. This surface high then gradually shifts eastward tonight with winds starting to turn more southerly. Locations farther away from the high and in a closer proximity to a developing weak surface low across the Texas panhandle will see an increase in the southerly flow overnight into Tuesday morning, especially the ridge tops within the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. The overnight lows tonight will be warmest in these locations. Whereas, protected valleys and rural areas generally along and east/south of the Balcones Escarpment where winds become the lightest, will be the coldest locations entering Tuesday morning with the radiational cooling. A light freeze is likely within the coldest of these locations, such as at Austin Bergstrom International (AUS). The freeze potential is too limited to where majority of the area in each county will not reach freezing, thus will hold off on the issuance of any freeze warnings at this time. The southerly low-level flow intensifies and begins to mix more to the surface into and through Tuesday afternoon with the diurnal heating. This results in a milder day with moderate to breezy southerly winds. With the residual dry airmass in place, the increased flow will result in critical fire weather conditions for majority of South-Central Texas. The only exception will be our southeastern most counties where fire weather conditions are to trend more in the elevated range than critical as a result of slightly higher humidity levels closer to the gulf waters. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 114 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Warm conditions prevail during mid to late week under the weak ridging to zonal pattern aloft, and light to moderate southerly flow. Afternoon highs return to the mid 80s and overnight lows bounce back into the 50s, even the low 60s for some into early Friday. The slight increase in humidity and with the milder air should allow for some return of morning low cloud cover by the week`s end. Rain chances are minimal through Friday. Medium range guidance continue to come into better agreement in regards to the arrival of an upper level storm system from the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this system, expect for increasing southerly flow from Friday night through Saturday. This draws in enough warm, moist air advection across the area to result in returning low end (20-30%) rain and storm chances beginning Saturday. The highest (30-50%) rain chances then likely arrives during Saturday night through early Sunday as the upper level storm system and it`s associated cold front advances across the region. A drier and cooler air mass arrives heading into the beginning of next week with the northwesterly flow. Concerns regarding fire weather could be renewed following the front pending on the amount of rainfall that falls. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Expect another TAF period of clear skies at all area terminals. Winds overnight will be light and variable becoming southerly Tuesday morning. Wind speeds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 A dry airmass will maintain today through tomorrow with minimum RH values between 15 and 25 percent. For today, the winds will be light as speeds diminish through the afternoon with surface high pressure. The surface high slides east into Tuesday, with the returning and increasing southerly flow. Speeds into and during Tuesday afternoon will reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This combined with the low humidity will result in critical fire weather across majority of South-Central Texas. The only exception will be our southeastern most counties where fire weather conditions are to trend more in the elevated range than critical as a result of slightly higher humidity levels closer to the gulf waters. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 9 AM through 6 PM on Tuesday for most. Higher moisture levels will be returning Wednesday through Friday with the moderate to breezy southerly flow. An upper level storm system arriving towards the weekend could bring some chances for wetting rain but also the arrival of another front that could result in fire weather concerns early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 60 40 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 32 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 35 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 37 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 35 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 34 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 33 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 35 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 38 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 38 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>221-223-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...05