Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
771 FXUS64 KEWX 240551 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1151 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over the Coastal Plains east of the Austin area Monday afternoon to evening, with large hail the primary severe hazard. - Locally heavy rain possible in thunderstorms through Monday. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving, with patchy morning freezes possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Main focus in the short term is on a Pacific front that will move east across South-Central Texas Monday, accompanied by a line of showers and storms whose southern end dips into our area. The front is forecast to move across the southern Edwards Plateau during the early morning, reaching the Hill Country by about mid to late morning and then pushing across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains in the afternoon and evening. Before the front arrives, steady northward advection of moisture and a thickening stratus deck will likely produce some mist and reduced visibilities overnight, especially at higher elevations. Our region is expected to be offset from the strongest forcing and remains located under higher convective inhibition. Thus, overall rain coverage is expected to be more sparse than areas farther north closer to San Angelo and Waco, especially during the morning hours. Latest CAM simulated reflectivities across the board have depicted a narrow and generally muted band of moderate showers with isolated lightning activity during the morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. That said, the atmosphere is still supportive of an isolated stronger to possibly severe storm (with large hail the primary severe hazard) should an updraft sustain over these areas this morning, and regional soils remain sensitive following last week`s rains. Rain and storm chances increase heading into the afternoon mainly over the Coastal Plains starting near the Austin area as the front encounters warmer and less stable air, supporting a southward buildup of storm activity. A few storms could be strong to severe. The SPC continues to highlight a portion of the CWA mainly east of I-35 and north of US-290 under a Level 2 (Slight) of 5 risk for severe weather Monday. The primary severe threat is large hail, though a low chance for a brief isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. The front is expected to exit the Coastal Plains Monday night, though a few light post-frontal showers could linger into Tuesday morning before fading away. A much drier and slightly cooler airmass will spread across the area behind the front, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s for most of South-Central Texas with some dips into the upper 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau pre-dawn Tuesday. Dry and sunny conditions will allow the anomalous warmth still residing aloft to mix to the surface, leading to a warm Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 A surge of colder air is forecast to arrive from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold-core high pressure region sloshes across the central and southern US, delivering much more fall-like weather. Highs Wednesday could stay in the 60s across most of the region despite clear skies. Wednesday may also be quite breezy as the tight pressure gradient associated with the cooler airmass moves across the area. Wind speeds could reach the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts up to 35 mph, making for a brisk autumn day. Thanksgiving morning will likely be the coldest part of this brief cooler stretch. GEFS and ENS ensemble temperatures and some of the statistical guidance have become a little more mild. Considering the typical difficulties these models have with handling airmasses like this one, I would still lean towards cooler values. Patchy freezes remain a possibility for the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, with the latest forecast lows ranging from the 30s north of I-10 to the 40s in urban locales and areas southward. At this range, Thanksgiving Day looks about as seasonable as one could expect, bringing sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to low 70s right around average. Ridging over the Beaufort Sea and northern Pacific is expected to come into phase at the end of the week, resulting in amplified troughing over the western US heading into the weekend. This forces the jet stream to flex southward into our area, leading to a warming and moistening trend to end the week. Our next potential rainmaking disturbance could come in the form of a shortwave embedded within the broader troughing. This general setup leads to an increase in rain chances this weekend, mainly towards the east, though the window of opportunity for rain is very broad and ill-defined this far out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 I-35 terminals will catch mostly a minimal impact from frontal related convection for Monday. Prevailing IFR cigs should cover most of the overnight hours with a few pockets of LIFR and MVFR skies possible. Lowest CIGs and VSBYs might be found at DRT where the BL nocturnal winds will be lighter. Mixing to MVFR should occur along I-35 by around 15Z as some light drizzle or SHRA could form in advance of the cold front. The front is continuing to run slow in subsequent model runs so will expect the eastward push will be a struggle to reach I-35 by early afternoon and may not clear the low stratus until after 21Z. With AUS being farthest NE and being able to catch deeper moisture and more dynamics aloft, a PROB30 for TSRA was allocated for the early to mid afternoon. Fair skies should reach all TAF sites close to 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 76 55 79 / 30 60 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 77 53 78 / 30 60 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 76 54 81 / 20 40 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 72 51 75 / 40 70 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 81 52 80 / 30 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 74 52 76 / 30 70 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 75 50 83 / 20 40 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 77 53 81 / 20 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 82 58 79 / 20 70 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 76 55 82 / 20 40 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 78 57 83 / 20 30 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...18