Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
817 FXUS64 KEWX 230007 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 607 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday, with higher chances across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 There is a deep upper level low moving onto the Baja Peninsula from the Pacific with a low amplitude ridge extending from the Gulf to southern Colorado. The flow over Texas is turning from the southwest to west. At the surface, the front that moved through South-Central Texas yesterday is stalled near the coast. The winds behind the front are mainly light from the northeast over our eastern counties turning to the southeast near the Rio Grande. A drier airmass has moved in with dewpoint temperatures 10-20 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. The upper low will move toward the northeast to the Four Corners region and then the central plains by Monday morning. The low level flow will become southeasterly bringing the frontal boundary back northward as a warm front. This boundary will move across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande region bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. Rain chances will begin over the southwestern counties and spread northeastward through the night. The warm front will move slowly toward the east during the day Sunday spreading rain chances to the central part of the CWA. Sunday night another Pacific cold front will move into West Texas pushing into our western area by Monday morning. This will bring a better chance for rain to most of the CWA. PW will still be moderate as will rainfall totals. There is some chance that a few storms could be strong to severe, but our confidence is low. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 The cold front will push through our CWA during the day Monday. The PW will be bit higher and there may be some locally heavy rain, but our confidence in this is also low. The best chances for more significant rain look to be farther north. The front will move away Monday night/Tuesday and there may be some lingering showers over the east Monday night. This front will stall near the coast and there will be a slight chance for showers along our southern border Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind the front we should see some real fall-like weather. Cooler, drier air will move in for the second half of the week. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s, and lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Some of the more favored locations could see a brief freeze Thanksgiving morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for all local terminals at least through the overnight. MVFR low cigs are forecast to first impact KDRT around 10Z Sunday with some showers and even a thunder or two possible. For the San Antonio airports, MVFR cigs are forecast to impact the sites around 12Z Sunday and stay that way through at least 17Z Sunday. For KAUS, both cigs and vsbys remain VFR through the forecast cycle. VFR cigs return around 18Z for KSAT and KSSF under a northeasterly flow around 8 to 10 knots. The wind shifts to a more southerly direction for the I-35 sites mid afternoon while wind stays out of the east and east-southeast at KDRT. Low clouds linger across KDRT all day and through Saturday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 54 74 66 79 / 0 10 40 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 75 65 79 / 0 10 40 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 55 75 65 80 / 10 10 30 70 Burnet Muni Airport 51 69 62 74 / 0 20 60 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 71 64 81 / 30 60 50 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 48 71 62 77 / 0 20 50 90 Hondo Muni Airport 59 73 64 79 / 20 30 40 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 54 75 64 81 / 0 10 40 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 53 77 65 82 / 0 10 20 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 59 74 67 79 / 10 20 40 70 Stinson Muni Airport 60 76 68 81 / 10 20 30 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran/33 LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17