Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
030 FXUS64 KEWX 012324 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm days and mild nights continue through the middle of next week. - Low chances (15-30%) for isolated showers or thunderstorms Friday through next week, mainly over the Coastal Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Mid-level ridging centered west of Texas brings dry, northwesterly flow over the area through tomorrow. Thursday, this ridge amplifies with more northerly wind seen aloft. At the surface, wind remains light under this regime with mostly clear/sunny conditions and warmer than normal October temperatures. Highs today and tomorrow peak in the upper 80s and low 90s for the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with the mid 90s for most other locations. Lows will continue on the mild side each night in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Mid-level ridging elongates and shifts slightly west Friday as an upper low also shifts west towards Texas along the Gulf coast this weekend into early next week. This mid-level low will aid in increased moisture gradually building back towards the area day by day leading to some low rain chances returning into the forecast. Any isolated showers or thunderstorms are favored over the coastal plains, but the vast majority of the area will remain dry through the period. According to global ensembles, the probability for 24 hour rain totals of a tenth of an inch or greater is not significant for the majority of the area (less than 10 percent). Highs and lows continue to be a bit above normal for early October through the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Wash, rinse, repeat. VFR ceilings and light winds less than 10 kts will prevail through the period. A slight shift to southerly is possible on Thursday, but otherwise, no changes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Fuels are forecast to be dry to critically dry across the majority of South Central Texas. With minimum RH values from 20-30 percent through Saturday, locally elevated fire weather conditions may be seen each afternoon. East to southeast surface winds will generally be less than 10 mph limiting critical or near-critical fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 68 96 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 96 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 65 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 65 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 97 65 94 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 96 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 95 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 69 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...MMM