140
FXUS62 KFFC 291747 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1247 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Dry conditions (in addition to hazardous fire weather
   conditions) will persist today.

 - Scattered to widespread rain is expected Sunday through
   Tuesday, with the possibility (30-40% chance) of a light wintry
   mix in the mountains Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

 - Another wave of rainfall is expected on Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Current satellite loop shows mostly high clouds streaming across
the area this morning. We will continue to see mostly high clouds
across the area today with dry and cool conditions continuing
through tonight. The over all flow becomes more East to
Southeasterly today so will see slightly increased moisture
levels. Relative Humidity levels do dip to near fire danger
critical thresholds but not expecting the duration to be long
enough to warrant a statement. Will definitely need to monitor
this today but this should be that last day we have to be
concerned with these extremely dry conditions for a while.

The high pressure ridge that has kept us dry for the past few
days is currently centered over the Mid Atlantic states. This
ridge will push off the eastern seaboard later this afternoon into
the evening hours creating a weak wedge setup across NE GA
tonight. At the same time the developing closed low center over
OK/KS moves E to NE today becoming centered over IA/IL by 00z Sun.
While the better dynamics, deeper moisture, and better
instability indices move NE with the low center, the associated
cold front pushes through the Mid to Lower MS river valley Today.
It begins to push decent moisture into NW GA just before sunrise
Sun so we will start to see some light showers between 06z-12z
Sun. This front begins to bring deeper moisture into the area Sun
morning/afternoon as it taps into Gulf moisture from the tail end
of the front Sat night. This front moves slowly SE through the
state Sun bringing mainly showers to the area. Instabilities stay
weak through the day Sun so not expecting any thunderstorms. Most
locations will see 0.25" to 0.75" of precipitation through Sunday
evening. Portions of North GA could see some mixed wintery
precipitation Sat night/Sun morning at the onset with temps near
freezing. Any accumulations would be light and only minimally
impactful (if at all). Any impacts should be relegated to
elevations of 2500 feet or higher.

High temps today will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s with some
40s across the NE GA maintains. Lows tonight dip back down into
the 30s and 40s with near freezing temps expected across extreme N
GA. Highs Sun will climb into the 50s across North GA to near 70
across central portions of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

As the extended period begins on Sunday night, a weakening cold
front will be exiting the forecast area to the south and east.
Scattered light showers and drizzle will be ongoing on the back
side of the front, with chances diminishing to around 10% or less
after midnight. Low temperatures early Monday morning are expected
to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s to the north of I-85 where
cold advection and northwesterly flow will have been ongoing for
the longest amount of time. Wind chills will further drop into the
teens to mid 20s in these locations. Elsewhere, lows will range
from the mid 30s along the I-85 corridor to the mid 40s in east-
central Georgia. Over the course of the day on Monday, surface
high pressure will move across the Ohio Valley region and towards
New England. During the afternoon, A CAD wedge will develop along
the Appalachians and into north Georgia, with low level winds
shifting to northeasterly. High temperatures on Monday will
largely be limited to the upper 40s and low 50s across north
Georgia, and rise into the mid 50s to low 60s in central Georgia
to the south of the wedge.

Any break from precipitation on early Monday should be short-
lived. A shortwave trough will swing through the Great Plains
towards the middle Mississippi River Valley region on Monday,
amplifying southwesterly upper level flow over the Southeast and
pumping moisture into the region, which will increase dewpoints
and precipitable water values. By Monday afternoon, a mid-level
disturbance and developing surface low will be positioned near the
west Louisiana coast. As this disturbance traverses the
southwesterly flow aloft, it will phase with the aforementioned
shortwave, with the surface low intensifying and becoming more
organized. Showers will increase from west to east across the area
ahead of the low starting Monday afternoon, becoming widespread
overnight through Tuesday morning as the low advances into and
through the CWA.

Rainfall totals associated with this system are fairly consistent
with previous forecasts, and are anticipated to range from 1-2
inches across the area, with the highest totals roughly along the
I- 85 corridor. Recent dry conditions should largely inhibit flash
flooding concerns, though nuisance ponding of water could occur
in low-lying areas and (unique to this time of the year) where
ample leaf litter is clogging drainage systems. As such, there is
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall per WPC
through 7 AM Tuesday. Temperatures at the ridgetops could drop as
low as the mid 30s early Tuesday morning, so it cannot be ruled
out that freezing rain could briefly mix with rain showers in the
pre-dawn hours at the highest elevations of far northeast Georgia.
However, measurable ice accretion is not forecast at this time.
With high temperatures being limited to the upper 40s to low 50s
in north Georgia within the wedge and under overcast skies,
convective activity is not expected in these areas. Temperatures
rising into the low to mid 60s in east-central Georgia and
increased low-level shear ahead of a cold front trailing from the
low. Severe weather is not anticipated with any isolated storms
that are able to develop.

Rain will begin to diminish from west to east on Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the low and trailing cold front move away
towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. Low temperatures on Wednesday are
forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s in north Georgia and
mid to upper 30s in central Georgia. Ridging over the east CONUS
and surface high pressure moving across the Southeast will promote
clearing skies and benign conditions on Wednesday. Behind the
cold front, highs on Wednesday will be about 5-10 degrees below
daily normals, in the low to mid 50s across the area. The shallow
ridge will quickly move away to the east on Wednesday night into
Thursday, with southwesterly flow setting up across the Southeast
once again through the end of the period. Another disturbance
moving from the far northwest Gulf through the Southeast will
bring the next round of precipitation Thursday night into Friday,
though there is much uncertainty on the development and evolution
of this feature at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail until around daybreak
tomorrow (Sunday), after which point CIGs will drop to MVFR/IFR
ahead of and with a front moving through. SHRA (with possible
reductions in VIS) associated with the front will begin across
metro Atlanta and at AHN around mid-morning. The potential for TS
is essentially zero. Winds will be E to SE at 5-10 kts through
early this evening, with gusts up to ~20 kts. Winds will go light
to calm overnight, remaining light and potentially variable in
direction tomorrow as the front moves through.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  35  51  37 /   0  10  40  20
Atlanta         51  39  53  36 /   0  10  40  20
Blairsville     44  31  48  25 /   0  40  60  10
Cartersville    51  38  50  28 /   0  20  60  10
Columbus        58  43  66  43 /   0   0  30  20
Gainesville     48  36  49  35 /   0  20  50  20
Macon           57  39  66  43 /   0   0  20  10
Rome            55  41  54  31 /   0  30  60  10
Peachtree City  53  37  57  34 /   0  10  40  20
Vidalia         59  41  70  48 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Martin