654
FXUS62 KFFC 041030
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Dry weather persists today under abundant high cloud cover
      before isolated to widely scattered rain chances begin to
      return on Sunday.

    - Despite chances for isolated to scattered showers and
      thunderstorms re-entering the forecast, meaningful rainfall
      is unlikely over the next seven days.

    - Warmer than average temperatures persist through midweek
      with seasonable temperatures returning post-front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Today brings a continuation of our ongoing dry stretch, though a
degree of moisture return will begin. The upper ridge axis remains
situated across the eastern U.S. and up the spine of the
Appalachians today with a gradual shift eastward toward the Atlantic
coastline through Sunday. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak lingering
CAD pattern will prevail today and Sunday as surface high pressure
centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly slides eastward.

Dewpoints and attendant PWATs today will begin to creep upward from
southeast to northwest as Atlantic moisture increases. Thus,
dewpoints in the 50s this morning will be replaced by 60s dewpoints
by this afternoon. Despite increasing moisture, little to no shower
activity is expected today even in southeastern counties as
midlevel ridging and dry air will act to suppress convection.
Highs will remain near seasonal norms this afternoon under
abundant high cloud cover, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Moisture return will continue in earnest on Sunday as onshore east-
southeast flow continues. Low temperatures Sunday morning will run
several degrees warmer than this morning as a result, only dipping
into the 60s for most. Despite the return of anomalously moist PWATs
on Sunday (1.5 to near 2"), shower and isolated thunderstorm
coverage appears to remain relatively scarce with higher
concentration farther south of our area closer to the lingering
baroclinic zone situated from the northern Gulf across Florida.
The highest chance for isolated to widely scattered activity will
be across Middle Georgia, and even in these areas QPF looks rather
meager, likely under a tenth of an inch for any areas that
receive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Moving into Monday and the start of the extended range, a surge of
moisture rounding the western periphery of vertically-stacked
ridging situated just off of the Eastern Seaboard will overspread
much of the Southeast. Resultant modest increases in PoPs will
follow suit (15-30% chances), distributed primarily across areas
along and south of a line extending from Columbus to Macon to our
border with WFO Columbia. To the north, the final vestiges of
subsidence under the ridge will preclude more than perhaps a passing
shower.

Mid-level flow is progged to become quasi-zonal Tuesday into
midweek, with a frontal boundary trekking eastward ahead of an
advancing surface high. As it does so, chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to portions of north
and north central Georgia. Ensemble guidance suggests that the front
will stall out across the midsection of the state by late Wednesday,
leaving some uncertainty regarding convective trends for the
remainder of the period. Concurrently, expect the aforementioned
surface high to slide into place across New England, setting the
stage for wedging to build in across our typical zones (generally
portions of north and east central Georgia, reflected well in our
temperature forecast). The combination of the stalled front and
drier air filtering in with the wedge airmass will likely serve to
focus any lingering rain chances south of the Metro, but
currently remain low to round off the work week (<20%).

Rainfall totals are likely to be less-than-meaningful areawide --
with 5-day amounts (Sunday through Thursday) less than a tenth of an
inch across north Georgia, and between a quarter and three-quarters
of an inch for far southeast central Georgia. Most locations are
likely to remain mostly if not fully dry, not conducive to any
strides made in improving our worsening drought conditions.

Expect afternoon highs in the 80s through midweek, slipping back
down into the 70s on Thursday and Friday post-front. Morning lows
will follow a similar trend, in the 60s through midweek (as much as
12 to 18 degrees warmer than average for early October), before
dropping into the 50s to round off the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. BKN
high cirrus will prevail with FEW/SCT cu in 4-6 kft range by
afternoon. Patchy MVFR clouds are possible by 12Z Sunday, mainly
MCN/CSG. Winds will remain E 8-12 kts with gusts 15-20 kts during
the late morning and afternoon.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  61  78  64 /   0   0  10   0
Atlanta         79  65  79  67 /   0   0  10  10
Blairsville     74  57  74  60 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    81  64  81  66 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        83  67  83  69 /   0   0  20  10
Gainesville     78  63  78  65 /   0   0  10  10
Macon           81  66  81  67 /  10   0  20  10
Rome            84  64  84  68 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  80  63  80  65 /   0   0  10  10
Vidalia         84  67  84  69 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...RW