878
FXUS62 KFFC 171905
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Critical fire weather conditions, due to low humidity, will
   continue into this evening.

 - Above normal temperatures will stick around into next week,
   with several daily record highs likely (70% chance) between
   Wednesday and Friday

 - Light rainfall is possible in north Georgia Tuesday night and
   region wide on Saturday, but improvements to the ongoing
   drought situation are unlikely as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the region
with a developing frontal boundary moving east out of the plains and
into the upper to mid MS river valley. THere is also a weakening
high pressure ridge centered over central KY that is expected to
move SE off the NC coast Thu afternoon. This ridge will still be
nosed down across SC/GA through Tuesday evening as the frontal
boundary pushes east mainly into the Great Lake states. The tail end
of this boundary does push slightly into N GA Tues evening/night but
the ridge keeps the deeper moisture/dynamics well north of the
state. We could still see some light showers across North GA Tuesday
night but not expecting any thunder. at most we could see 0.10" of
precip or less across north GA Tue night.

Low temps tonight will cool near seasonal norms with lows mainly in
the 40s and some upper 30s in the North GA mountains. Temps will
warm substantially Tuesday with high in the 70s to near 80 Tues
across north and central GA. These temps will be about 5 to 10 deg
above normal values for this time of year. With the increased cloud
cover Tuesday night temps will only dip down into the 50s to upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025


The primary focus of the longer term forecast remains centered on
the next opportunity for widespread appreciable rain. After a system
Tuesday night that looks like a dud for most of the state, the next
opportunity for rain should arrive over the weekend. Guidance from
the GEFS and EPS has narrowed down the timing of this system over
the last 4 runs. As a result the ensemble consensus favors rainfall
starting Friday night and lingering into the day on Saturday (high
confidence in the timing, >80%). With the core of the system likely
tracking through the Ohio Valley, the higher rain chances and
largest rain amounts are favored in the northern half of the
Georgia. Unfortunately the rain amounts with this system don`t look
terribly robust. The mean expected rainfall for Atlanta is hovering
near 0.25 inches in both the GEFS and EPS. Expanding to look at the
rest of the state, the odds of 0.5 inches are below 50% for all
areas except the mountain peaks in north Georgia. In central Georgia
the odds of 0.25 inches are below 50%. So the moral here is that
this system continues to trend towards the "drier than we would
prefer" side of the equation. Looking further out for significant
rainfall is equally disappointing. One or two opportunities for
rainfall may materialize after Wednesday of next week (per GEFS and
EPS guidance), but there are no indications of significant
widespread rainfall that would impact the drought in a positive way.
As such drought conditions will likely linger or worsen through the
end of November.

One thing that is consistent in the long term forecast is a trend
towards continued above average temperatures. This is largely due to
the ensemble guidance continuing to lean toward ridging in the
Southeastern U.S. The warmth should be particularly pronounced
during the latter part of this week (Wednesday-Friday), when
temperatures will be flirting with record highs for three straight
days. If rain doesn`t materialize on Saturday, then near record
highs will likely continue for a fourth day. A couple of daily
records will likely (>80%) fall during this period, with the the
current records being most in jeopardy on Thursday. In terms of
sensible conditions on the ground, near record warmth in late
November will translate into afternoon highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Any cooling over the weekend should only bring values
back to the 70s and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Mostly clear skies with no precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs
expected at the TAF sites. Winds are mainly out of the N to NW
this afternoon in the 6-12kt range. Will see winds go light and
variable over night the pick back up out of the SE in the 4-8kt
range Tues after sunrise. Winds will continue to turn to the SW
through 18z-20z Tues.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  70  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         44  73  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     39  65  49  71 /   0   0  30  10
Cartersville    40  73  55  78 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus        44  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     42  69  54  76 /   0   0  10   0
Macon           40  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            40  75  58  81 /   0   0  20  10
Peachtree City  40  74  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         43  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...01