165
FXUS63 KFGF 020944
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and gusty winds from this evening into early
  Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions,
  particularly within the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, along with snow chances after Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...Synopsis...

The general upper air pattern has not changed much the past few
days, and looks to remain similar throughout the next seven
days. It can be summarized as a large upper level trough over
the eastern CONUS, which leaves the Northern Plains stuck in
northwest flow, riding a wavering baroclinic zone throughout the
entire forecast period. Embedded within northwest flow, there
will be several waves. Each wave will bring a brief warmup out
ahead of them in a WAA regime, followed by a period of light
snow over some/all of the FA, and finally a reinforcing shot of
cold air. This general pattern rinses and repeats through
multiple cycles by early next week.

...Tuesday into Wednesday Snow and Wind...

A shortwave upstream over the southern Canadian Prairies is
propagating towards our FA this morning on water vapor imagery. With
a surface low over Saskatchewan and a warm front draped to the south
over western ND, a broad area of mid level WAA resides across
North Dakota into southern Manitoba. Radar returns have broken
out within this WAA regime from near Minot and points to the
north. Dry air at the surface is limiting much from reaching the
ground on the US side of the International Border at this time,
but as the atmospheric column saturates, snow will begin. First
in the Devils Lake Basin, pushing south and east Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

Snowfall totals will be light (a few tenths of an inch) due to the
weak and transient nature of the forcing at play. Totals will be
highest in northwestern MN, where the WAA regime will last a little
longer compared to the rest of the FA. Even here in northwestern MN,
snowfall totals wil likely struggle to exceed an inch.

As the cold front swings through Tuesday evening, a bubble of cold
air advection will propagate through the FA from northwest to
southeast. Breezy winds out of the north are forecasted to persist
into Wednesday morning, with sustained winds approaching 25 mph
within the Red River Valley. With a blowable snowpack on the ground
in the southern Red River Valley, the blowing snow table gives
patchy blowing and drifting snow for Wednesday morning.

...Continued Cold and Late Week Snow

Our active northwest flow pattern will continue beyond Wednesday, as
ensembles indicate yet more wave(s) from Friday into the
weekend. At this time, the evolution of each wave is highly
uncertain, as ensembles placement of synoptic features varies
from run to run. This period will need watching as it
approaches, but due to the low predictability at this range
from the wide spread in potential scenarios, no major changes
can be made to the going forecast that contains a spattering of
low snow chances and cooler temperatures from late week through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across eastern ND with
mid level clouds (10000 FT AGL) starting to move into the region
from the northwest. MVFR stratus over northwest MN has eroded
some on the western edge of the cloud deck, but has generally
held firm as the main shift in BL flow is still to the west in
ND and the Red River Valley. Guidance supports IFR ceilings for
a period of the morning hours before sunrise Tuesday within this
region of stratus, with improvement to VFR favored mid to late
morning as low pressure finally shifts east.

A mid level wave
will bring light snow to the region from the northwest to
southeast, with the best chances for light accumulating snow
and visibility reductions in northeast ND and northwest MN. Low
pressure and a cold front passing through the region also bring
widespread stratus and shifting and increasing winds from the
south to west then northwest Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR