667
FXUS63 KFGF 092327
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
527 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very difficult travel conditions today into tonight due to
  snow and ice covered roads, reduced visibility from heavy snow
  rates and blowing snow, as well as gusty winds. Lingering
  impacts from snow showers and blowing snow are expected
  tonight into early Wednesday.

- Winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 50 mph or higher,
  in far southeast North Dakota. Areas with newly fallen snow
  on the ground, or actively falling, will see visibility
  reductions. Icy roads combined with strong winds may make for
  very hazardous travel within portions of eastern North Dakota.

- Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 80
  percent chance for wind chills to drop to -30 or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A heavy snow band is working its way through Grand Forks to
Crookston right now and is dropping visibilities to between
1/4SM to 3/4SM. An additional few inches are expected over the
next several hours across the heaviest snowfall bands. Further
south, a transition from freezing rain to snow is ongoing,
particularly at FAR where freezing rain changed over to snow at
the observation station. The heaviest snowfall rates should
start to diminish around midnight, but horizontal convective
rolls are still expected to develop but we don`t know how
widespread they will be. As a result, no headline changes on
this update.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...Synopsis...

After the passing of the current stronger clipper, the large scale
pattern continues to be dominated by northwest flow with an
additional (weaker) clipper passing through the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. This brings medium chances for light snow and
lower probabilities for minor (advisory) impacts as probabilities for
3"+ snowfall are less than 20%. Falling heights/deepening mid/upper
lows in Canada towards Hudson Bay will bring a series of arctic
fronts through the region during the second half of the week into
the weekend along with the coldest air of the season so far.

...Winter Storm Impacts Ongoing...

The current strong clipper continues to bring impacts resulting in
difficult travel across our CWA. The mid level wave is centered over
our CWA, with the surface low over SE ND/NE SD while places the
stronger gradient and speed max to our west and south through this
evening. This has also resulted in much lower winds than previously
forecast across our north, with the best potential for higher gusts
closer to the SD state line this evening. Max Tw aloft is below
freezing where most precipitation is occuring, though far southeast
ND is still warmer with a rain/snow mix and a narrow corridor where
freezing rain may still be lingering (southwest of Cass County). The
most organized area of snow and embedded heavy snow banding is
extending from northeast ND into northwest and towards west central
MN currently, with decreasing trends to the west of this. Heavier
rates within this area are ranging from 0.5 to 1.5"/hr based on radar
estimates. As the mid level wave continues southeast the stronger
forcing will exit the region resulting in decreasing intensity of
lingering snow.

The general progression favors this more organized
area of snow weakening through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening, however CAA and speed shear aloft in the mixed layer will
keep lingering snow showers over the region. Wind impacts and the
threat for widespread blowing snow/whiteout is greatly diminished
due to the current track for much of our area, however, visibility
reductions are still anticipated just where snow showers track and
rates still potentially approach 0.5/hr. The coverage of which may
continue to decrease after midnight becoming less and less of a
concern as winds continue to decrease through Wednesday morning.
Weather related impacts thus may linger, though the impact/risk may
eventually be more in line with advisory (minor) or sub advisory
categories overnight into the morning hours Wednesday. We`ll monitor
and adjust products accordingly dependent on coverage.

...High winds/slick travel impacts...

Where higher winds actually occur in the far southeast (towards the
SD border) there is a risk for increased travel impacts especially
where roads are already slick as higher profile/light weight
vehicles may be prone to jostling on the slick roads. This is
something to keep in mind if you are traveling this afternoon
through this evening when winds begin to increase.

...Arctic air and cold/wind chills impacts...

Late this week arctic air begins to arrive and the cold air mass
over the weekend will support lows in the negative teens and 20s,
and there is a strong signal for at least advisory (-30) wind
chills. Depending on wind speeds warning criteria (-40) may be met
with increasing chances particularly north of Highway 2.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Snowfall will continue to impact visibilities over the next
several hours to as low as 1/4SM at times, particularly at GFK.
Snowfall rates should diminish as we progress closer to 06z,
although snowfall will continue through the overnight hours and
allow for periodic IFR visibility reductions. Regardless of
snow, ceilings will remain MVFR to IFR through the majority of
the TAF period.

Winds will start to increase this evening from the northwest for
all TAF sites, with the strongest winds expected to remain south
of FAR. Blowing snow may accompany this increase in winds,
especially at GFK/TVF where snowfall was the heaviest and
temperatures remained below freezing.

Expect aviation conditions to slowly improve after 18z as
ceilings rise slowly with diminishing precipitation.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008-
     015-016-026-027-029-030-054.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-
     014-024-028-038-039-049-052-053.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ038-049-052-
     053.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004-
     007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-
     006-009-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Perroux