498
FXUS63 KFGF 210033
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend with
  slightly below average temperatures next Wednesday and beyond.

- A more active pattern by early next week in the northern
  plains brings increasing snow chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A bit of clouds lingering over Wadena county, but otherwise our
forecast area has cleared out with mainly southwest to westerly
winds. Think the winds, although fairly light, should provide
enough mixing for fog formation. HREF only has a few spots will
around 10 to 15 percent probability for visibility under half a
mile, so impacts don`t look likely but will continue to monitor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...Synopsis...

A somewhat complex upper air pattern will continue to bring
mainly above average temperatures and dry weather to the region
through the weekend with low amplitude ridging in the central
plains keeping highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s in the coming
days. While also being positioned on the eastern periphery on
this ridging we find ourselves in gentle NW flow with weak
shortwaves traversing the flow and bringing minor precip
chances, one wave looks clipper esque on Saturday but looks to
miss us just to the north. Beyond this a baroclinic zone (fancy
word for temperature gradient) will become more pronounce ahead
of an early week system that could bring wintry impacts to the
region. Behind this wave persistent NW flow aloft will tap into
much colder canadian air bring temps below average with highs in
the 20s for the remainder of next week.

- Early week system

The main challenge of the forecast will be a wave interaction across
the northern plains early next week. Scenarios while certainly still
showing their differences offer some guidance on the likely
evolution. A northern wave will meander east out of the southern
canadian rockies early next week with the cutoff low over the 4
corners area ejecting northeast towards the great lakes. A faster
ejecting cutoff low looks to allowing western ridging to become less
amplified and take the northern low on a more southerly track while
a slower cutoff low would lead to a slightly more northerly track.
These waves are expected to eventually merge somewhere in southern
Ontario/Great Lakes vicinity with this deepening wave taking on a
negative tilt as it moves east around the southern Hudson Bay and
into the northeastern US. Synoptically speaking the faster ejecting
low would lead to more impacts in our region as the respectively
more southerly tracking northern shortwave would have more
interaction with the southern cutoff low with higher QPF resulting
across the forecast area. With cold air (cold enough to support snow
processes) on the backside of this system there is certainly the
possibility for accumulating snow but overall synoptic
predictability remains low where snow could fall or how much.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

MVFR ceilings exiting the southeastern corner of the forecast
area and have already cleared out of the TAF sites. Conditions
should remain VFR throughout the period. Probabilities of any
fog formation look low with southwest to westerly winds at 5 to
10 kts eventually becoming light and variable.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR