Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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662 FXUS63 KFGF 170943 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 343 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for hazardous weather is low through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...Synopsis... 500 mb split flow over the area from this past weekend into early this week. Upper level ridging over Saskatchewan into North Dakota with an eastward moving 500 mb low moving from Utah/Colorado into Nebraska tonight and into Iowa Tuesday. Sharp cutoff to the main moisture to the north, with main rain chances well south of the fcst area across southern/central SD into southern MN. Overall trend continues to be taking the higher rain chances south. However, NAM 12k and a couple of the NSSL cams indicate a small zone of potential light rain/sprinkles developing this aftn from southeast ND into central ND. This seems to be tied to an area of 700 mb convergence noted in the wind field from Jamestown to Garrison ND. Pops not showing up in the NBM, WFO BIS added some low pops for this scenario this aftn/eve and did blend with them for the most part indicating a low chance for -ra far SE ND to Valley City area then west. Overnight tonight it appears chance of any precip does drift into north central ND west of DVL. Sharp cutoff in mid level moisture tdoay and tonight with a sunnier day today in northwest MN with clouds increasing elsewhere. East wind 10 kts today. Surface temps shows highs today upper 30s to mid 40s and evening temps in the 30s so if any precip occurs it would be light rain. Split flow becomes more zonal flow after this wave for mid to late week with main jet in Canada. 500 mb low drops well south into southwest Arizona and northwest Mexico mid week. With the main jet north of the border there will be a stronger short wave Wednesday thru central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba with a weak surface trough moving thru the forecast area Wed evening. Chance of light rain is forecast with this, very light amounts if any. Again temperatures warm enough for liquid rain. 500 mb zonal flow sags a bit south to along the International border Friday into the weekend. At this time other than periodic high and mid clouds, a dry period is expected with contdinued above normal temps. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions should persist for the entire TAF period. Where clouds exist, isolated MVFR cannot be ruled out but this appears to be fairly unlikely due to how dry we are right now. Regardless, aviation impacts will remain limited as winds will generally remain below 12 knots, with a few isolated gusts by tomorrow afternoon around 15-20 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Perroux