330
FXUS63 KFGF 140123
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
723 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain is possible Friday night into Saturday morning;
  however, there is minimal impact potential.

- There is a signal for precipitation chances heading into next
  week. At this time, the chance for minor winter impacts is
  around 10 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper ridge axis is building eastward into the Northern Plains,
downstream of an upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest
and southern Canadian Rockies. This is helping shift the surface
ridge eastward, while also gradually increasing the surface
pressure gradient tonight. This will slowly increase winds to
around 10 mph overnight.

Otherwise, expect high level cirrus/cirrostratus clouds, and
temperatures within the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface ridge remains in place today, with the axis moving into the
Ohio Valley by late Friday. A cold front pushes through the area
Friday night into Saturday morning, with a low chance for light rain
as this happens. Temperatures look to remain warm enough to support
mostly liquid precip ahead of the front. Heading into Saturday, H5
upper low moves east across Manitoba and brings northwest flow to
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be cooler
than on Friday, but still above average for early to mid November.
This pattern continues into Sunday, with highs in the 30s to low 40s
and lows in the teens and 20s.

...Precip Chances Next Week...

An amplified, but narrow, H5 ridge builds into the area Monday and
Tuesday, with precip chances increasing on the upstream side as it
moves east. Ensemble guidance is showing a wide range of potential
scenarios for the period covering Tuesday through Thursday. At this
time, the probability for minor winter impacts is roughly 10
percent; however, this may change drastically as guidance is
updated. The larger than average ensemble spread shows a large
degree of uncertainty, thus confidence in any single solution is
very low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Light and variable winds are expected to slowly increase late
this evening and overnight, with a few gusts to near 20 knots
possible Friday starting around 16Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ/Lynch