444
FXUS63 KFGF 160004
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
604 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are low chances for precipitation next week, with the
  chance for advisory impacts from either snow accumulation or
  light freezing rain less than 10 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The surface high continues to slowly inch towards our area as
winds continue to diminish. Midlevel clouds exist across
southeast North Dakota and may impact low temperatures tonight,
however confidence in how much is low. For this reason, the
forecast remains on track. Regardless of changes in temperature,
impacts overnight will remain the same.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...Synopsis...

The synoptic pattern continues to favor split flow for the Northern
Plains in the coming days, with uncertainty following as we had into
next week. Clear skies prevail today into Sunday with low
chances for precipitation returning on Monday night into
Tuesday, mainly south of Highway 200. By mid week, ensembles
show a large degree of disagreement regarding the progression of
the H5 pattern. The GEFS favors prolonged split flow and a
continued dry pattern, with the ECMWF favoring measurable
precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Heading into next
weekend, precipitation signals remain very weak, with a slight
trend toward cooler temperatures.

...Wintry Precip Chances Next Week...

Monday night into Tuesday, an upper low moves across parts of the
Central Plains and into the Midwest. The northern reaches of this
system could bring a mix of rain and snow into southeast North
Dakota and west central Minnesota. QPF potential is quite low with
this system, and widespread impacts are not expected. Looking into
Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance has been quite variable in
the previous several days. This is mainly due to the low
predictability of split flow pattern timing. The GEFS suite of
ensembles favors a drier setup, with about a 10-15% chance to see
measurable precip in parts of northwest Minnesota Wednesday
night into Thursday morning; however, the ECMWF and AIFS show a
slightly better chance, roughly a 30-40 percent chance of 0.1
inch of liquid precip. Temperatures at the time are expected to
be right at or just above freezing at the surface, with
temperature profiles aloft just as uncertain as the pattern
itself. At this time, there is a slight favoring of light rain
and/or freezing rain, with a lower chance for snow; however, we
should better model convergence as the system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Low aviation impacts are expected for the TAF period. VFR
conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies and no
visibility reductions expected to develop. Winds will diminish
to light and variable this evening and remain below 8 knots
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux