015
FXUS63 KFGF 200105
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
705 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the
  predictability of specific impacts is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Band of rain continues to extend from Upper Red Lake to just
northeast of Fargo, so adjusted POPs accordingly. Still getting
a few areas of light rain further west that are not showing up
on radar, but overall should see a decrease in the more
measurable rain and possibly a bit of fog/drizzle setting up
behind it. At this point not seeing too much in the way of
visibility reductions in our area, but will continue to monitor
as the evening progresses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...Synopsis...

Currently, surface low pressure is traveling across southern Canada.
To its south, a broad area of isentropic lift has sparked off
showers/light rain. Rain should end from southwest to northeast this
afternoon/evening. Stratus will remain, and with the
atmospheric column saturated from the surface to 800 mb, pockets
of drizzle will develop tonight on the MN side of the FA.
Thereafter, we will remain drier into the weekend as northwest
flow takes a firm hold over the region. There are hints of a
very subtle/weak shortwave Friday night into Saturday, but any
precipitation would be extremely light with no impacts.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain anywhere from a few
degrees above average to nearly 20 degrees above average. For
reference, average high temperatures are in the lower 30s pretty
much area wide by this time of November.

...Active and Cooler Next Week...

A pattern shift arrives early next week, with a trough digging over
the northwestern and eventually north central US. In turn, this will
bring a major cool down in temperatures. High temperatures from
Monday to Wednesday are forecasted to drop from the 40s to the
20s.

While there is high confidence in temperatures cooling down
substantially, the signal for snow is less clear. Ensembles are in
good agreement that the first period of interest for snow is Tuesday
into Tuesday night, as a surface low tracks somewhere along the
International Border. A track such as this has major implications as
for how much snow we receive, as our FA remains on the edge.
Therefore, a track just a bit more to the south would increase
snow in our northern FA. Being nearly a week out, there is
plenty of time to watch how this feature evolves.

As the low departs, drier weather will build in for Wednesday
into the Thanksgiving holiday. Even though it will be dry,
conditions will be breezy and cool. Confidence in the synoptic
pattern from Thanksgiving onwards is low, as ensembles show a
wide variety of scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings with light rain in some spots, with best
chances at the MN airports. The MVFR to IFR ceilings will
continue for much of the night, and there is some indication of
fog or mist formation behind the main rain that is currently
exiting the forecast area. Model ensembles have around a 30 to
40 percent chance for visibility less than half a mile in
western MN after midnight. However, at this point highest probs
are not at the airports, so will keep vis in the TAFs at 1 mile
or above for the time being. Should see improvements to vis as
winds shift to the northwest around 10 kts later tonight and
tomorrow morning. Eventually ceilings will improve also, with
most sites VFR by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...JR