338
FXUS63 KFGF 131205
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
605 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this week.

- Low confidence/high uncertainity in regards to precipiation
  chances early next week. Probability of wintry impacts less
  than 10 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A few high and mid clouds over the area, with the thicker mid
clouds exiting the southern Red River valley. Clear upstream. No
fog has formed as airmass low levels are quite dry and temp/dew
pt spread in most areas remain 2-5 degrees F.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Sfc high ridge axis extends from the high in western Kentucky
northwest into central Minnesota. Winds have turned light
southerly in E ND/RRV with a more light west to southwest wind
east of the RRV in Minnesota. Patch of mic clouds is exiting SE
MN and west central MN slowly with thinning of the cirrus noted
as well over the area with clear sky upstream. So NBM sky cover
idea of less clouds as we go thru the morning seems reasonable.
Sfc pressure gradient remains weak thru the day with wind speeds
under 10 mph today all areas with wind direction eventually
becoming southeast. Did blend in some NBM75/90 highs in for
today to go just a tad warmer. We have been running higher on
temps the past 2 days than what strict NBM was giving. Highs
today mid 40s northeast to mid 50s southwest parts of the fcst
area. No fog noted as low levels are quite dry early this
morning. Scattered cirrus tonight with a south wind 10 kts
helping to keep temps a bit warmer with lows low to mid 30s Fri
early AM.

Friday will see the south winds increase but 925-850 mb winds
are higher in Manitoba than here so winds will be breezy but
well below any advisory potential.

Low pressure moving ENE from NE Alberta into far northern
Saskatchewan and then northwest Manitoba into Friday will have a
cold front south from it and this cold front will move quickly
east thru the area Friday evening. Mid clouds will increase and
could see spotty sprinkles/light shower, but for the time being
NBM pops used are blo 15 pct.

Breezy WNW wind Saturday with high pressure building into
Saskatchewan and then into Manitoba Sunday with ridge axis
southeast. Cooler temperatures, but still about 4-8 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Dry this weekend with
sunshine. Maybe a period of lower clouds up around Lake of the
Woods Saturday but upper level low/trough is considerably far
north and wraparound stratocu may just brush LOW region. But
some chance there will be a bit more cloud cover than fcst shows
Saturday in NW MN.

Next Mon-Wed period is highly uncertain with low confidence in
how any precipitation chances and precipiation types work out.
ECMWF which had been more aggressive with upper loow and sfc low
moving more north toward our area has backed off a bit and
weaker. More like GFS/Canadian global. This would mean some low
pops Monday late thru Tuesday but very light QPF and while ptype
is uncertain between light rain or light snow any wintry
impacts are well under 10 pct as shown by WSSI-P from WPC. From
NBM precip types freezing rain pops were near zero so did remove
fzra from the derived ptypes in our forecast for early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Not much wind today as compared the past 2 days. Light winds,
mainly southerly or southeast 4 to 9 kts. VFR sky and vsby thru
the period with patchy cirrus or mid clouds.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle