Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 310001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





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