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000
FXUS63 KFGF 192031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH.  BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND.  ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN.  GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN.  NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

EXPECT CONTINUED WIDESPREAD IFR-LOW END MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO SEE HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE DRY SLOT WILL GET INTO WESTERN MN AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA
SHOW AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS.  SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INTO FARGO
AREA LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO COULD LEAD TO SOME EVE TSTMS.  REST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.  AS FOR PRECIP DO
EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP AT GFK-TVF-BJI IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE NEXT BATCH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.  BUT TIMING THE PRECIP BREAK ALWAYS SUSPECT.  DVL REGION
MOST PRONE TO REMAIN IN IFR AND RAIN THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF NO RAIN IS PSBL THERE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LESS
CERTAIN.  WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT MOST SITES...BUT MAY TURN
A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST AT FARGO AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH AS SFC LOW
WOBBLES TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BTWN BIS/ABR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT
800 AM HAS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN ISOLATED
AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SAW FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN DOES FALL...IT MAY
PUSH SOME FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN BACK ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. NCRFC MODEL INPUTS BRING SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AND RATE OF RAINFALL.
SOME OF THE RIVER POINTS HAVE BEEN DELAYED WITH RESPECT TO
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF RISES...AND HAVE BEEN COVERED BY A FLOOD
WATCH. THE NEW RIVER POINT FORECASTS ALSO BRING EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO AND CROOKSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SINCE THE FORECAST
DOES NOT BRING LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE FOR ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...ISSUED A NEW RIVER FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THOSE POINTS AS
WELL. WILL MONITOR RIVER STAGES CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE
PRODUCTS AS REQUIRED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS