Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 022012
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

FOR TONIGHT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS REGION. SHEAR A BIT STRONGER WITH SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AT THIS POINT. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM INTO EARLY EVENING. DID VERY LITTLE TAMPERING WITH POPS
AS MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA
AND AGAIN SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REACHING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
WED EVENING. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP ORGANIZE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH E-W BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MN. 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT
DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL CIN AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE VCNTY BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING NNE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM FAR SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. ANOTHER RAIN AREA TO
WATCH WILL BE ALONG NORTHWARD EXTENDING BOUNDARY FROM E SD SURFACE
LOW TO SECONDARY LOW OVER S MB. BASED ON LOW POSITION FAVORED RAIN
AREA WILL BE ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE EAST THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE DRY
SLOTTING THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. WITH WRAP AROUND COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY/WINDY
FROM VALLEY WEST DURING THE DAY.

ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...WILL KEEP A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT
COULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S...LIMITING DAY TIME HIGHS TO
AROUND THE 70 MARK. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL SUNDAY AND
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE GULF FOR
SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND GIVE THE AREA ITS NEXT
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO MN EARLY THIS AFTN AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO BJI/TVF AREAS. FAR WILL BE SCT-BKN THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON AS SOME VFR CIGS TO THE NORTH COULD SINK INTO
THEIR AERODROME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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