Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011517
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGES MADE. QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z
JUST AHD OF SFC LOW. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA....BUT
15Z TEMPS SLREADY AROUND 60 IN FAR SE ND. SO 70 SEEMS REASONABLE.
WARMEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS RAP/HRRR SHOWS MID 70S IN THE RRV AND
HELD OFF OF THAT MUCH WARMTH DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS. SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV MID AFTN. STRONGEST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WRN FCST AREA BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON LOW END
OF ANY WIND ADVISORY AND FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE.
RED FLAG OUT FOR FAR WRN FCST AREA MAINLY FOR FUELS AND WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY OUT AND WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA MUCH LONGER. WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNFICANT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WINDS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN GO DOWN A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS





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