025
FXUS65 KFGZ 020911
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
211 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry weather continues today. Another weak
weather system brings a chance of light rain and snow showers from
late tonight into Wednesday night, mainly from the Mogollon Rim
north and east. Fair weather returns Thursday with a warming
trend beginning on Friday and lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow will continue today, with
temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday. By late tonight
through Wednesday, a shortwave will dive southward into the state
bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of light snow showers
(rain showers below 5000 ft). While most of the heavier precipitation
is forecast to stay north and east of Arizona, there should still
be enough moisture around for some showers. Low levels are starting
out very dry, so this will limit amounts. NBM PoP forecasts seemed
to be too low for Wednesday from the Mogollon Rim northeastward
so we bumped these up quite a bit (still only 20-30%). Current
forecasts are still calling for less than 1" of snow above about
6000 feet, and much of this is forecast to fall during daylight
hours which limits road impacts. The better chance for any slick
roads would be early morning Wednesday in northeast AZ, and again
closer to sunset in areas where showers linger. The disturbance is
forecast to exit the state quickly Wednesday evening, with
precipitation chances ending by midnight.

Thursday through the weekend - dry northwest flow is expected,
with cold daytime temperatures Thursday, gradually warming to
several degrees above normal by the weekend. Ridging will continue
off the west coast keeping the storm track north of our region.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 02/06Z through Wednesday 03/06Z...VFR
conditions are expected. Winds generally light and variable less
than 10 kts except local gusts from the northeast of 15-20 kts
south of the Mogollon Rim including KSEZ through 12Z. Southwest
winds at 5-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts develop after 18Z,
mainly downwind of terrain features, persisting through Tuesday
evening.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...VFR
conditions are forecast through 12Z Wednesday. After 12Z Wednesday
local MVFR conditions possible in isolated -SHRA/-SHSN. VFR
conditions are forecast to return and -SHRA/-SHSN chances end by
12Z Thursday. Winds west to northwest 5-15 kts on Wednesday
becoming north to northeast on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry today, then slight chance
for rain and high-elevation snow showers on Wednesday, mainly from
the Mogollon Rim and northward. Winds southwest/west 5-15 mph today,
becoming west through north on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and cool conditions. Daytime winds
north/northeast 5-10 mph on Thursday, shifting north/northwest on
Friday, then becoming west on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff