113
FXUS65 KFGZ 050516
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1016 PM MST Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Southwest winds will decrease over eastern Arizona by
late this afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry and cooler weather this
weekend. Overnight low temperatures tonight and Sunday night will
produce some freezing temperatures in the high country, check your
local forecast for details. After fair and somewhat warmer weather
early next week, expect a chance for showers to return late next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent low to our north has taken its time moving
through Utah today, prolonging windy conditions over the eastern
zones. The trough axis has moved through the Four Corners and is
about to move through Window Rock this afternoon. Winds behind this
axis should drop relatively quickly, hanging on the longest in the
southeast pocket of our CWA.

Behind this trough, cool and dry air will bring a pair of cold
mornings to our area, especially above 7000 feet. The first freeze
is likely tonight in the high pockets, such as the Grand Canyon
Airport and out here in Bellemont. The overall pattern will be
typical of early fall through Wednesday though, a slow daytime
warming trend, average southwesterly breezes in the afternoon and
cool nights.

By the end of the coming week, things get more complicated as
deepening low pressure off the west coast interacts with both sub-
tropical moisture and potential hurricane activity. There are large
differences in solutions as a bunch of phasing must occur to bring
this all together. At the very least, expect a windier, wetter and
cooler pattern toward the end of next week, but it is too early to
jump all over tropical activity and forecast a major event. Stay
tuned on this one.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 05/06Z through Monday 06/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions under clear skies. Light winds are forecast through
the morning hours, becoming SW 5-15 kts gusting 20 kts after 18Z.
Wind become light again after 01Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/06Z through Wednesday 08/06Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds SW 5-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts
each day. Winds light and variable or terrain driven during
overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...High temperatures 5 degrees
below average with dry conditions and no precipitation expected.
Minimum RH values will be 15-25% Sunday and 10-20% Monday. SW winds
10-20 mph both days.

Tuesday through Thursday..High temperatures return to seasonal
averages through the end of the week. There is a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday along the AZ/NM border. A slight chance of
showers or thunderstorms returns to the higher elevations Thursday
afternoon, and a chance of showers area wide Thursday night into
Friday morning.  Minimum RH values 10-25% Tuesday and Wednesday,
rising to 20-35% Thursday. Daytime winds will be S-SW 10-20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff