116
FXUS65 KFGZ 202102
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
202 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers will come to an end this
evening. Cold and generally dry conditions are expected expected
on Friday, outside of a few isolated showers possible across
southwestern Yavapai County. Another disturbance will pass through
the state this weekend, bringing showers to much of northern
Arizona. Mild and dry conditions return for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The trough of low pressure that brought the recent
precipitation is filling (weakening) and moving quickly to the
east as the next trough in line deepens and dives southward along
the California coast. Rain and high elevation snow showers will
come to an end this evening across northern AZ, with generally
cloudy skies and colder overnight lows. Expect some areas of fog
overnight, as well as some icy roads at the high elevations.

As the trough deepening off the coast of California dives far
to the south (west of Baja) on Friday, it will have little impact
on northern Arizona. We`ll see generally dry, cloudy, and cool
conditions through Friday night. As this system `turns the
corner` on Saturday and starts on a NE trajectory toward AZ,
we`ll see a copious amount of warm and moist air surge into the
area and expect rain showers to move northward into northern AZ on
Saturday. The associated warm air with this system will cause the
snow levels to rise, and could reach upwards of 8000-9000` (from
west to east across N. AZ) by Saturday night when the bulk of the
precipitation is over the area. Snow levels will fall late
Saturday night and early Sunday, and we could see some light snow
accumulations down to ~7000 on Sunday morning at the tail end of
the system.

This storm will move through relatively quickly - with most
precipitation over by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation
is currently anticipated to be along and south of the Mogollon
Rim (east of I-17), where 0.5-1.0" of rain is anticipated. About
half that amount is expected elsewhere.

There is some uncertainty with the system this weekend. The ECMWF
ensemble model members are indicating a more northerly track of
the low pressure, leading to lower snow levels and heavier snow
accumulations (2-4") around 7000` by Sunday afternoon. We`d place
the probability of this solution around 10-20% at this time -
certainly something we`ll be keeping our eyes on.

In the extended forecast, dry northwest upper-level flow will
return on Monday, with dry and seasonable weather forecast
through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 20/18Z through Friday 21/18Z...Scattered
SHRA/SHSN with MVFR/IFR conditions through through around 00Z,
mainly east of KGCN-KFLG-KPAN. Isolated -SHRA/SHSN 00Z-07Z. Patchy
BR/FG developing mainly 05Z-15Z. Winds generally west to
southwest 5-10 kts, diminishing to light and variable after 01Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 21/18Z through Sunday 23/18Z...Isolated to
scattered SHRA/SHSN with local IFR/MVFR conditions are expected along
and south of the I-40 corridor through Saturday afternoon.
Saturday evening through Sunday, coverage of RA/SN and MVFR/IFR
conditions is forecast to increase, especially SE of a KPRC-
KFLG-K0V7 line. Winds generally light at 10 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...Look for scattered showers,
becoming more isolated as the day progresses. The snow level will be
around 6000-7000 feet today. On Friday another storm approaches but
will track further south with any shower activity located south of
the I-40 corridor. The Snow level will range from 6000-7500 feet on
Friday. Winds west to southwest at 5-15 mph today, east to southeast
at 5-10 mph Friday.

Saturday through Monday...The chance for showers will continue
through the weekend, primarily south of the I-40 corridor on
Saturday then spreading area wide on Sunday. The snow level will
range from 7000-8000 feet. Drying out Monday as the weekend storm
system moves east. Winds east to southeast at 5-10 mph on Saturday,
west to northwest at 5-10 mph on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff