671
FXUS65 KFGZ 120745
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1245 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooling, but still mild temperatures
will continue before breezy and cool conditions set in by Friday.
An incoming storm system is then expected to bring much colder
temperatures along with chances for rain and high elevation snow
for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...High pressure begins to
gradually shift eastward through the rest of the work week. As a
result, cooler (but still above normal) temperatures look to
remain through the coming days. Increasingly breezier conditions
also look to develop ahead of an approaching storm system, with
gusty southwest winds expected on Friday. Dry conditions look to
prevail through much of the short-term period, however an
isolated shower or two over western Arizona can not be totally
ruled out on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...A closed low looks to develop off the
southern California Coast, and then slowly make its way eastward
across the southwest over the weekend. Model guidance has trended
significantly slower with this system over the past 24 hours. Much
of the GEFS, EPS, and CMCE support the bulk of the precipitation
moving into northern Arizona late Saturday into Sunday. As such,
PoPs were modified to follow suit, since the default NBM is
lagging behind.

QPF with this system also looks to have decreased with the track
in the latest runs. Most guidance suggests a tenth or two for the
lower elevations to upwards of a half inch to an inch for the
higher terrain. Some locally higher amounts will still be possible
in the typical upslope areas.

With this current track of the low, 700 mb temperatures look to
largely remain -2C to +2C. This would largely keep snow levels at
or above 8000 feet through much of the event, potentially dipping
slightly to near 7000-7500 feet on Sunday as cold air advection
begins to increase aloft a bit. Thus, for the vast majority of the
area, rain is expected for this event.

Monday onward...Unsettled weather looks to continue into next
week, with the potential for another storm system moving into the
southwest. Model solutions diverge significantly behind the
initial system, so confidence in any impacts with this secondary
system remains low. Some guidance does show a much colder system,
thus a greater potential for snow in the higher elevations,
however exact snow levels still remain unclear. Nevertheless,
continued cool, unsettled and breezy conditions look to remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/06Z through Thursday 13/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions with local haze/smoke from prescribed burns across the
area. Winds light and variable at 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/06Z through Saturday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds south at 5-15 kts gusting to 20 kts on
Thursday strengthening to 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts on Friday.
A slight chance of showers developing after 12Z Friday, mainly
west of a KPAN-KPGA line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry with temperatures 10
degrees above average. Afternoon winds mainly S-SW 5-10 mph
today, S-SW 10-15 mph Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25%.

Friday through Sunday...Unsettled and cooler weather arrives late
Friday and continues through the weekend. The highest
precipitation chances are from late Saturday through Sunday,
primarily rain with snow levels down near 8000 feet by Sunday.
Winds SW-W 10-15 mph Friday, SE-S 10-20 mph on Saturday, SW 15-25
mph Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff