257
FXUS65 KFGZ 022158
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
258 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry weather continues today. Another weak
weather system brings a chance of light rain and snow showers from
late tonight into Wednesday night, mainly from the Mogollon Rim
north and east. Fair weather returns Thursday with a warming
trend beginning on Friday and lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Some mid to upper-level clouds are passing
through today as a subtle shortwave moves past Arizona. The flow
aloft remains primarily northwesterly, and it will remain dry
enough in the sub-cloud layer to keep precipitation away. Expect
near normal temperatures otherwise.

Tomorrow...By early tomorrow morning, a more robust shortwave dives
down into northern AZ. The current trajectory will keep the majority
of precipitation to our north and east, however there will be enough
moisture to support cold and showery conditions tomorrow. Current
timing suggests showers beginning in far northern AZ tomorrow
morning, moving southward through the day, then clearing out by
Thursday morning. Snow and QPF totals have trended slightly higher
than previous runs. The current forecast calls from a dusting to an
inch or two of snow generally above 6000`, with the best confidence
for accumulating snow in sites north of I-40.

This leans more towards the higher percentiles of ensemble guidance,
but still falls below the Minor Impact stage on the Winter Storm
Severity Index. The primary impacts at this time look to be slick
road conditions in the early morning and through the evening where
showers are present.

Thursday and beyond...A dry northwest flow returns after the trough
exits. Chilly daytime temps will linger on Thursday, then gradually
warm to above seasonal normals by the weekend. Quiet weather is
expected through at least the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 02/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, but areas of CIGS BKN7-11kft AGL slowly spreading south
through the period. ISOLD -SHSN possible over higher terrain from the
KFLG terminal northward later tonight and early Wednesday. Daytime
sfc winds SW-W5-15kts, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/18Z through Friday 05/18Z...Areas MVFR along
and north of the I-40 corridor through 08Z-10Z Thursday, then VFR.
Flight restrictions due to VIS/-SHSN/-SHRA/CIGS. Sfc winds not
expected to impact flight operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Colder conditions arrive
for Wednesday as chances for rain and snow showers develop, mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor. Drier air follows this system
for Wednesday night and Thursday, with cool temperatures continuing.
Winds will stay generally light, but will switch northwesterly for
Wednesday, then northerly to northeasterly on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with temperatures gradually
rising into the weekend. Winds will remain light and mostly variable.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff