952
FXUS65 KFGZ 282009
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
109 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are
expected to continue through much of the weekend. From late
Sunday through early Monday, cooler temperatures and slight
chances for rain and high elevation snow return to the forecast,
primarily across far northeastern Arizona. Fair weather returns
on Tuesday, with the potential for a return of unsettled weather
during the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather and unseasonably warm temperatures will
continue through Saturday. On Sunday, southwest wind speeds
increase and daytime temperatures cool a few degrees ahead of an
approaching 500 mb shortwave trough. This trough remains on track
to cross northern Arizona from late Sunday into Monday, but
impacts associated with this weather system are expected to be
minor. The current forecast calls for a 20-30% chance of light
snow in the Chuska Mountains of far northeast Arizona, with only a
10-20% chance elsewhere. In areas that do receive light snowfall,
forecast accumulations are an inch or less. That said, the
snowiest model solutions predict 2-3 inches of snow over the
higher terrain of eastern Arizona, including the Chuska Mountains.
Although only minor winter weather impacts are expected,
travelers should exercise caution if traveling along northern
Arizona`s high elevation roadways Sunday night and Monday morning
in northeast Arizona, including Buffalo Pass. Otherwise, expect a
noticeable cool down, with a round of below normal daytime
temperatures on Monday.

A return of fair weather is likely on Tuesday, but longer range
models forecast the passage of a second low pressure system again
during the second half of the week. Significant model spread
exists regarding the track, timing and strength of this second
system. Confidence is high that the second half of the week will
see below normal temperatures associated with this unsettle
pattern, but how this will play out in terms of the potential for
rain and snow is still hard to say. The current forecast calls for
a 10-40% chance of light rain/high elevation snow.

The bulk of the model solutions indicate less than 0.10 inches of
liquid precipitation and only light snowfall. The wettest model
solutions show a stronger low developing off the coast of southern
California capable of drawing deeper moisture into the state from
the south. In this case, models suggest 0.25-0.75 inches of
liquid precipitation along and south of the Mogollon Rim, with
accumulating snow in the 1-3 inch range over higher terrain from
the Mogollon Rim northward. All in all, this will most likely be
another very low impact system, but if the wetter model solutions
verify, we may see at least minor winter weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/18Z through Saturday 29/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW 5-10kts daytime,
light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/18Z through Monday 01/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation Saturday, slight chance of rain and high
elevation snow showers northeast Arizona Sunday night into Monday
morning. Winds light and variable Saturday, becoming SW 10-20kt,
gusts to 25kts Sunday, N 5-10kts Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry and mild weather will
continue through Saturday and most of Sunday. Sunday evening into
Monday morning could see a 10-30% chance of rain and high elevation
snow showers over northeastern Arizona as a weak weather system
brushes by, with the Chuskas being the area favored best for
precipitation. Precipitation amounts will be low, generally less
than 0.10".  Winds will be variable at 10 mph or less on Saturday
but increase out of the SW 15-20 mph, gusting 25 to 30 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Apart from a couple isolated rain or snow
showers over the White Mountains before noon, things will be dry
Monday and Tuesday. Another weather system approaches on Wednesday
bringing a slight chance of rain and high elevation snow showers by
Wednesday evening. Winds N 10-20 mph Monday, SW 10-15 mph on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff