Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
119 FXUS64 KFWD 191748 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1148 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms (20-30% coverage) return later this afternoon and evening. Storms this evening will have a low severe threat. - Widespread showers and storms should move across North and Central Texas tonight/tomorrow morning, then again tomorrow afternoon/night. The main threat with this activity is heavy rain and flooding, particularly for locations that receive both rounds of heavy rain. - Additional storm chances return late this weekend into early next week that could lead to additional flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Today will be the start of a relatively active 48-hour stretch, characterized by multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The main hazard will be heavy rain and localized flooding, mainly for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain tonight and again tomorrow. There is also a low severe threat, mainly across Central Texas this evening and tomorrow afternoon. It`s important to recognize that our forecast confidence regarding the coverage and timing of showers/storms is low, especially for today and tonight`s activity. We have high confidence in multiple rounds of showers and storms, high confidence that the storms will have potential to produce heavy rain, but since there is not a well-defined source of low-level ascent (i.e. a strong cold front or dryline), the models will struggle to accurately capture each round. We have a little higher confidence regarding tomorrow`s forecast since the forcing will be better organized, but there is still wiggle room regarding the specifics. A flood watch will likely be issued this afternoon, but we are still discussing the exact locations that need to be included in the watch. Basically, we`re mulling over if we should only include Western Central Texas where we have more confidence of receiving multiple rounds of rain, or if we should expand it all the way into East Texas where some of the high-res guidance has another bullseye of high rain totals. Synoptic Setup... - A deep mid and upper-level trough to our west is starting to eject east over the SW part of the CONUS. This is resulting in strong height falls overspreading the Southern Plains over the next 36 hours or so. In the low-levels, we have been in a southerly flow regime, so plenty of warm/moist air from the Gulf has been transported into the region to "prime the pump." When transient leading shortwave troughs move through, they will be able to readily tap into the favorable low- level conditions and develop several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There are a couple surface boundaries out there to mention. A weak front stalled to our north in Oklahoma and a dryline in far West Texas. These boundaries are projected to stay north and west of our forecast area until Friday afternoon, and therefore not be a major factor in our weather for this event. This Afternoon and Evening... - Warm/moist advection this afternoon should support isolated to scattered showers through the rest of the day. Given the nebulous forcing and the abundance of dry air aloft (for now), most of the activity during daylight hours will just be showers with a low threat of lightning. Things change this evening and tonight as the low-level winds ramp up along with a mid-level shortwave trough moving through. There is a small window of time this evening when we may see an isolated discrete supercell with the potential to produce marginally severe hail. There is a non-zero threat of a tornado in Central Texas if a supercell develops, but the low- level wind field is not too favorable, so we`d need things to line up just right to materialize a tornado threat for just a brief window of time. Tonight and Tomorrow Morning... - The coverage and intensity of precipitation will increase across the region tonight. We generally expect most of the storms to move from the southwest to northeast, but the exact location of this is still largely unknown, even at this time. The convective mode should be messy, with clusters of multicells that don`t support an organized severe threat. However, the disorganized nature will increase the threat of flooding if multiple storms move over the same locations. The morning guidance is still dispersive (some have a rain bullseye over SW Oklahoma, some have it SE of the Metroplex), and although we`re not confident where this will be...we are confident in some locations receiving up to 2-3 inches of rain with this first round. Some spots in our area will remain dry, and most of the area can expect between ~0.25-0.75" of rain. Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening... - As tomorrow morning`s round of activity moves east in the late morning/early afternoon, round two will be ongoing across West Texas and the Big Country. Expect a broken line/cluster of storms to move into our area in the mid-afternoon and slowly move from west to east across all of North and Central Texas through the afternoon and evening. It should move into the eastern parts of our forecast area overnight and slowly move south/east by Friday morning. The forcing aloft will be stronger tomorrow, so we have more confidence in this round occurring. Most of the guidance is showing similar rain totals for tomorrow`s event, but a few have a rain bullseye up to 4". Any locations that have overlap between tonight`s and tomorrow`s heavy rain will have the potential to see flash flooding, while the remaining areas (i.e. most of the area) that receives only one round of heavy rain will have a threat of urban flash flooding and minor flooding in flood prone locations. - Similar to today, there is a non-zero threat of severe weather tomorrow afternoon across Central Texas. The wind field/shear profiles look more favorable than they do today, but instability is lacking. If things line up just right in the afternoon, with the help of diurnal destabilization, there may be a brief window of time that supports isolated severe weather (mainly a low tornado threat) along the leading edge of the line/cluster. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 By Friday morning, the dryline (or Pacific cold front if you choose) briefly alluded to above will be moving through North and Central Texas, so expect all precip to move out of our area by the afternoon. Because of this, Friday is shaping up to be a pretty nice day with mild/warm temperatures and low humidity. Slightly cooler air should arrive Friday night, allowing for Saturday to be an even better weather day. Unfortunately, the nice weather comes to an end Saturday night into Sunday morning when another deep mid- and upper-level low moves over the Southern Plains late this weekend into early next week. Once this occurs, another series of shortwaves will trigger more showers and storms across the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the specifics (exact precip locations/rain amounts, surface features, etc.) that will be consequential to the final forecast/impacts. Due to the uncertainty, we are still in the "be aware" stage of this event. What we do know is that the soils will be more prone to flooding with this next round of precipitation with even less rainfall. I`d caution against looking at any single model`s rain forecast at this time since the exact amounts will largely depend on where/if surface features develop in our area. If we were to have a surface low develop nearby, we`d have higher rain totals. If there is no surface low in the area, we`d have less. Time will tell, but stakeholders should keep an eye on it. We`ll be monitoring it closely over the next few days, particularly Friday and Saturday once we get past this first system. Bonnette && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Multiple rounds of showers and storms are forecast to move across the region over the next 24-36 hours along with intermittent MVFR ceilings. South flow and ILS conds should prevail through tonight and tomorrow. Precip Coverage Discussions: This afternoon...There will mainly be isolated-scattered popup showers, with a low threat of thunderstorms. We only included VCSH in the ACT TAF for this activity, but there is also a 20-30% chance of showers at the D10 terminals this afternoon/evening with a 10% chance of thunderstorms before 06Z. Tonight...A more robust cluster of showers and storms is expected to develop in the region, but our confidence regarding where it will be is still quite low. We included a -SHRA VCTS line in all TAFs in early morning hours tomorrow, but the timing of this could be moved up or back by several hours. Tomorrow...There should be a lull in activity at the TAF sites in the late morning into early afternoon before another (and more robust) line moves into the area tomorrow afternoon/evening. The onset timing is low confidence, but we have high confidence of showers and storms moving into the area late in the day into tomorrow evening. Due to this, we only included -SHRA/VCTS in the extended DFW TAF, but expect additional details to be included in future TAFs. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 Waco 82 68 75 62 / 30 70 80 80 Paris 82 66 75 61 / 10 70 80 90 Denton 82 63 74 56 / 20 80 90 80 McKinney 83 66 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 Dallas 84 67 75 62 / 10 80 90 90 Terrell 83 66 76 62 / 10 70 80 90 Corsicana 84 69 79 65 / 20 70 70 80 Temple 82 67 77 61 / 30 60 80 80 Mineral Wells 85 64 76 56 / 40 80 90 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette