Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
499 FXUS64 KFWD 161140 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain may increase the threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A weak cold front is slowly moving southward across Oklahoma and will arrive in North Texas later this morning. Although this front will not bring us rain chances today, it will knock off a few degrees from this afternoon`s temperatures compared to yesterday. Today`s highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Texas with mid 80s in Central Texas. With no substantial cold air in place, the "cool" shallow air will mix out this afternoon and allow for southerly winds to return to the region this evening. The tranquil weather conditions will continue into the night as overnight temperatures drop to the 50s west of I-35 and 60s along and east of I-35. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Our warm and rain-free conditions will come to an end next week as a series of weather systems lead to periods of enhanced forcing for ascent. The first system will miss North and Central Texas completely as it lifts from Arizona to Colorado and eventually into the Central Plains. Although the greatest forcing for ascent will remain well north of our region, this system will lead to lee cyclogenesis across Colorado and a northward migration of moisture out of the Gulf across our region. Given the increasing moisture and weak warm air advection, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out as early as Tuesday, however, this potential will remain below 10%. Another weather system will be migrating eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. This system will be taking a more southerly track compared to the previous, increasing it`s influence on our weather across North and Central Texas. Confidence continues to increase that this system will take its time moving eastward, thus, placing North and Central Texas in a favorable region for multiple waves of ascent to move overhead. The first wave of stronger ascent will arrive Wednesday morning, increasing rain chances to around 40-60% through the afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles continue to produce around 1500 J/Kg of instability with around 30 kts of deep layer shear. This should be enough to produce a few stronger storms capable of small hail and gusty winds. The next wave will be much stronger as the parent shortwave inches closer to our region on Thursday. Rapid pressure falls will lead to increasing forcing for ascent as moisture continues to be drawn northward. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across western North and Central Texas, then move eastward through the day. Similar to Wednesday, the parameter- space does not support widespread severe weather, however, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. The main difference between Wednesday and Thursday will be a slight uptick in deep- layer shear as the lower-levels respond to the passing shortwave. In addition to the severe weather potential, there will be a threat for flooding with Thursday`s precipitation. With nearly unidirectional flow from the surface to 500mb, thunderstorm training will lead to areas of heavier precipitation. Placement and timing of those heavy precipitation bands remains uncertain this far out. There continues to be agreement in the guidance that rainfall amounts will most likely range between 2-4". Given the potential for training storms, a few locations may pick up more than 4" of rain by Friday. As the system gradually pulls away, it will send a cold front across North and Central Texas on Friday bringing temperatures closer to seasonal normals. By next weekend, another system may approach our region and once again increase rain chances for parts of North and Central Texas. Make sure to stay tuned to the forecast if you have midweek or weekend plans! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions are ongoing across North and Central Texas, however a shroud of MVFR cigs is ongoing just southeast of KACT. Given the proximity of the reduced ceiling heights and the potential for the clouds to shift north, a TEMPO of BKN015 will continue for KACT through 13z. Beyond 13z, we`ll monitor a cold front that will lead to northerly winds below 10 kts across North Texas between 14-16z. The front will reach KACT closer to 20z. The northerly winds will be shortlived as winds return out of the southeast by the evening hours. VFR will prevail tonight with continued southeasterly to southerly winds. Ceiling heights may become a concern just beyond the scope of this TAF`s valid period for both North and Central Texas. There is medium confidence that MVFR will impact KACT closer to 12z Monday as another swath of moisture streams northward. More details to come in subsequent TAF issuances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 63 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 85 65 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 81 63 82 66 / 0 10 10 10 Denton 79 58 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 82 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 82 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 83 63 85 66 / 0 10 0 10 Corsicana 87 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 87 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 84 56 91 63 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez