Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
039 FXUS64 KFWD 041035 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week with little chance for rainfall. - A weak cold front may approach our region towards the middle of next week which could result in low rain chances (20%) by Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 117 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025/ /Through Tonight/ The presence of upper ridging with anomalously high heights will result in another warm and dry day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. With moderate subsidence overhead, the diurnal cumulus field will be unable to deepen and mature into rain showers despite daytime heating and destabilization. A dry low- level fetch and strong mixing of surface dewpoints will result in low humidity this afternoon, keeping heat index values near or even slightly below ambient temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 117 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ The warm and dry weekend continues on Sunday as an increasingly diffuse Gulf low allows dry ESE winds to prevail through the low- levels. As this feature finally lifts off to the northeast heading into the workweek, a more favorable fetch of low-level moisture will resume, which will increase humidity and cloud cover heading into Monday. This could also open the door for some afternoon seabreeze convection to encroach on our southeastern zones. By Tuesday, a deepening mid-level trough across the Northern Plains should be capable of dragging a weak surface cold front southward into North Texas, increasing low-level convergence. The upper ridge axis should be far enough displaced to our south to allow for scattered disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of this boundary both Tuesday and Wednesday. However, temperatures are likely to remain near or above normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s without significant temperature contrast accompanying this frontal zone. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ VFR and light southeast winds of 5-10 kts will prevail through the period with daytime cumulus near 6 kft. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 68 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 Waco 90 65 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 5 20 Paris 87 63 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 Denton 89 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 89 65 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dallas 90 68 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 88 64 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 89 66 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 90 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 5 20 Mineral Wells 89 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$