Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
193 FXUS64 KFWD 081112 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 512 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will usher in well below normal temperatures on Sunday. Freezing temperatures are expected across much of North and Central Texas Sunday night, and a Freeze Watch is in effect. - There are no rain chances through the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Some very patchy fog has attempted to develop mainly in East Texas where moisture was not effectively scoured by yesterday`s weak cold frontal passage. Light northwest winds and modest dry advection should prevent fog from becoming widespread or dense, but sheltered low-lying areas could experience minor visibility reductions through the morning. After sunrise, low-level flow will already recover to southwesterly, but this will be short- lived as our much-anticipated stronger cold front arrives later in the day. Veering southwesterly winds and warm advection prior to the boundary`s arrival will send highs well above normal, with most areas reaching the upper 70s and 80s. The front`s initial wind shift this afternoon will occur with a prefrontal trough which will outpace the boundary`s actual baroclinic gradient by several hours. More pronounced changes in sensible weather won`t become tremendously noticeable until later this evening and overnight, and with dry air preceding the frontal passage, precipitation chances are nil. Strengthening low-level flow and cold advection will become established overnight into Sunday morning, while momentum from 30-40 kt winds in the 925-850 mb layer is mixed to the surface. This will result in a much cooler Sunday (by 20+ degrees for many locations) with breezy north winds of 15-20 mph and gusts near 30 mph. These speeds are largely expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, with wind chills in the upper 40s and 50s for a majority of the daytime. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 With this morning`s forecast issuance, a Freeze Watch has been issued for a majority of the CWA, with the exception of our far western zones (which already experienced a freeze in late October) and a few of our southwestern zones which are presently forecast to hold at lows of 33-35 on Sunday night. For the rest of the forecast area, the arctic air intrusion coupled with favorable radiational cooling conditions with very low dewpoints and lessening wind speeds should result in low temperatures as low as the mid 20s by early Monday morning. Spatial adjustments to this product may still be necessary in the next 36 hours while transitioning from the Watch to Warning time period. The small bit of good news for Monday morning is that wind speeds will have greatly subsided, so wind chill values won`t be much lower than actual temperatures to begin the workweek. Following the cold start to the week, a steady warming trend will ensue for the following several days. Flow will return to southerly on Tuesday, and highs will rebound to near or above normal through the rest of the workweek. Moisture recovery will be slow however, and this will result in zero rain chances through the remainder of the seven day forecast. Low rain chances may return sometime next weekend at the absolute earliest. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 Nearly calm winds currently prevail at the airports, with light south/southwest surface flow resuming after 14z this morning. Patchy fog has also developed in eastern portions of D10, but should remain east of DAL before mixing out after sunrise. Later this afternoon, a cold frontal passage will shift winds to northwesterly, and this should occur around 20z at Metroplex TAF sites and closer to 22z at Waco. Post-frontal wind speeds will initially be around 10 kts, but will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts this evening which will continue into Sunday. Aside from some passing cirrus, mostly clear VFR skies will prevail through the entire forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 49 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 82 51 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 79 47 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 80 44 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 46 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 51 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 82 48 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 84 51 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 83 50 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 84 44 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-144>148-159>162-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley