Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
990 FXUS64 KFWD 072358 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will usher in well below normal temperatures starting Saturday Night. Freezing temperatures are expected across much of North and Central Texas Sunday night. - There are no rain chances through the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) A weak cold front is now making its way southeastward across North Texas, however, no major sensible weather change is expected from this front. Winds are switching from southwesterly to northwesterly with wind speeds the rest of today around 10 mph. Even with northwesterly winds in place, temperatures today will manage to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Given the shallow nature of this front, winds will gradually become southerly once again tomorrow and remain out of the south through the early afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the area starting tomorrow afternoon, leading to a stark change in temperatures behind the front. With minimal moisture return out ahead of the front, this frontal passage will remain precipitation-free with just a few clouds accompanying the cold front. Although the wind shift will arrive during afternoon hours, the true cold air will be slightly delayed, arriving late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s with the coolest temperatures in the north. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) The tightening pressure gradient between an area of high pressure in the Rockies and the trough near the Great Lakes will lead to increasing cold air advection during the day on Sunday. Highs will only be in the mid 50s along the Red River, near 60 degrees along the I-20 corridor, and the mid 60s in Central Texas. Along with the cooler temperatures, breezy northerly winds near 20 mph with gusts between 30-35 mph will make for a chilly day for anyone that plans on spending time outdoors. As the winds subside Sunday evening, clear skies will persist through the night, providing excellent conditions for efficient radiational cooling. A large portion of North and Central Texas will experience their first freeze of the season, marking the end of the growing season. Temperatures in North Texas will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s with Central Texas ranging from 30 to 35 degrees. The well-below normal temperatures will continue into Monday as temperatures across the entire region remain in the 50s. Wind speeds on Monday will be much lower compared to Sunday with winds below 10 mph in the afternoon. In typical Texas fashion, another transition will take place Monday into Tuesday as winds respond to an approaching system along the Rockies. The northerly winds will become southwesterly by sunrise Tuesday, and given the rapid tightening of the surface pressure gradient, another windy day is expected. Winds out of the southwest will push afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s west of I-35 with relative humidity dropping between 15-20%. The combination of warm weather, low relative humidity, and windy conditions will yield to an elevated fire weather threat on Tuesday for areas west of I-35. Wind speeds will subside during the evening hours, marking a diminishing threat for additional fire starts/spread. The rest of next week will remain precipitation free with continued above-normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight temperatures in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions will continue at airports this TAF period with northerly winds around 6 knots anticipated tonight. Winds will veer to southerly/southwesterly on Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon but remain light at 5 knots or less. Another fropa will bring northwest/north winds around 10 knots to D10 airports in the 20-21Z timeframe and ACT around 22Z, with north winds increasing significantly after the current TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots Saturday evening/night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 80 49 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 81 53 62 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 49 78 47 56 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 47 79 44 57 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 49 79 47 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 55 81 51 60 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 52 81 48 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 56 83 52 62 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 52 83 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 49 83 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Shamburger