Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
735 FXUS64 KFWD 131827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and rain-free weather will continue through much of this week, with a low chance for storms returning on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ A broad ridge remains the controlling influence across North and Central Texas, while a weak shortwave lifts across West Texas into Oklahoma. Subsidence on the southern flank of this disturbance will keep our area dry today. Expect passing cirrus across parts of North Texas to continue to erode through the early afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as modest southeast winds near 5 to 10 mph prevail. Lows will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight with a subtle backing of surface winds to the east. This stagnant pattern warrants a persistence forecast for Tuesday: mostly sunny and dry with highs generally hovering within a degree or two of 90 degrees and light east to southeast winds. 12 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Late Tuesday Through Sunday/ High pressure aloft will center overhead midweek, maintaining a quiet and warm pattern with little day-to-day variability. Expect afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and morning lows in the mid 50s and 60s. Late week, a large scale trough moving across the southern Rockies into the Plains will lead to tightening of the surface pressure gradient, drawing higher dewpoints back into North and Central Texas by Friday. This will set us up for returning low (20-30%) rain chances across North Texas late Friday and early Saturday, spreading across the remainder of the region Saturday afternoon and overnight into early Sunday as the amplifying trough drives a cold front southeastward through the region. The better instability will likely be focused from the Ark-La-Tex into the Lower Mississippi Valley during peak heating on Saturday. If the current timing of the cold front verifies, local impacts may be limited to increasing clouds, breezy prefrontal southerly winds, and low storm chances in advance of the front, mainly near and east of the I-35 corridor. Ensemble spread on frontal timing remains on the order of 12 to 24 hours, which will continue to shift rain coverage with the potential for some areas to miss out on receiving measurable rainfall altogether. While this front may not deliver the fall-like cool down that so many of us where hoping for, this pattern change should be enough to nudge temperatures towards climate normals late this weekend into early next week. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail at all TAF sites with southerly winds gradually backing to the east-southeast late this afternoon and through the evening. Speeds will remain at or below 10 kts through the end of the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 67 88 65 87 / 0 5 5 0 0 Waco 87 62 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 87 62 88 61 86 / 0 5 5 0 0 Denton 88 62 88 60 86 / 5 5 5 0 0 McKinney 88 63 88 60 86 / 5 5 5 0 0 Dallas 90 67 90 65 88 / 0 5 5 0 0 Terrell 88 62 89 60 87 / 0 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 90 63 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 88 60 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 90 62 90 59 89 / 5 5 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$