910
FXUS64 KFWD 172032
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Low-level moisture and instability will surge northward over the
next few days, resulting diurnally-driven chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. The moisture plume is located below
700 mb, underneath an area of mid/upper-level subsidence. These
counteracting forces (low-level lift & mid/upper-level subsidence)
will keep the coverage of precip isolated and the thunderstorm
chances low. The exception to this will be across the southeastern
third of our area where 30-40 kts of southeast flow aloft will
result in an enhanced seabreeze moving into the area late in the
afternoon. Even then, storms should be quick-moving and largely
confined to outflow boundaries. Convective activity should wane
with the loss of heating each evening, resulting in mild and humid
nights.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will be making its way inland along the
Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday night with its associated plume of
tropical moisture surging northward into North and Central Texas.
Notable warm/moist advection will result in increasing showers and
isolated storms beginning Tuesday night and continuing through
Thursday as the system slowly moves west/northwest over the
course of a couple of days.

Not much has changed regarding the expected precipitation totals
for our region, with the bulk of the precipitation and
significant rainfall totals still expected to remain to our south.
Average rainfall totals through Thursday will range from 1-3"
across Central Texas and near 1/2" or less across North Texas.
It`s worth noting, however, that some areas will receive no
measurable rainfall and others will receive more than the average
amounts mentioned above. The latter is especially true for
Central Texas where slow-moving and/or training showers and
thunderstorms may produce isolated rainfall totals between 3-5".
The most likely area for these higher rainfall totals will be
south of a line from Cisco to Palestine. While there is medium
confidence these higher-end rainfall totals will occur
somewhere across Central Texas, confidence in a precise
location(s) and frequency is quite low at this time. Hopefully,
this will come more into focus over the next couple of days.
Regardless, these higher end totals will certainly cause flood
impacts. While flooding will be less likely across North Texas,
PWATs are expected to reach 2-2.5" across various portions of the
forecast area on Wednesday. Therefore, any showers and storms that
develop in North and Central Texas collectively will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall. The NAM is currently
forecasting PWATs near 2.40" for portions of North Texas, which
would exceed our daily maximum PWAT (for June 19th) of 2.22". With
all of this in mind, ensure you keep a close eye on the forecast
for the latest information throughout the week.

The tropical disturbance will move further west on Thursday,
eventually bringing an end to our rain chances from east to west.
Rain-free weather is expected through the weekend, but hot
temperatures are expected with heat index values potentially
returning to the triple digits. Low rain chances look to return
early next week as we enter the final week of June.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

A scattered Cu field over the area will continue through the
afternoon before dissipating this evening. Isolated showers will
continue, with the highest coverage remaining across Central and
East Texas. The coverage of precip will be lower in/near the D10
terminals, therefore no wx groups were added to the D10 TAFs.

MVFR will surge north tonight, overspreading all terminals in the
few hours straddling midnight. The stratus will linger for much of
the morning, slowly lifting/scattering into a Cu field by the
early afternoon. South flow will prevail through the valid TAF
period.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  92  75  83  74 /   5  10   5  30  30
Waco                75  90  74  81  74 /   5  20  10  60  50
Paris               72  90  72  86  72 /  10  20   5  20  20
Denton              74  92  74  82  72 /   5  10   5  30  30
McKinney            74  91  73  82  72 /   5  20   5  30  30
Dallas              75  92  75  82  74 /   5  20  10  30  30
Terrell             73  90  73  83  72 /  10  20  10  40  30
Corsicana           75  92  74  81  74 /  10  20  20  50  40
Temple              75  92  74  79  73 /   5  20  20  60  60
Mineral Wells       75  92  73  82  72 /   0  10   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$