Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
012 FXUS64 KFWD 212327 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 527 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain is expected late Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main threat. - The middle and end of next week including Thanksgiving Day looks cool and dry, with highs in the 50s and 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Showers and isolated storms in Central and East Texas will dissipate and/or move out of our area this afternoon. A weak front currently moving through the Texas Panhandle will slide across the region this evening. There is a <20% chance of a shower along the leading edge of the front in our far southeastern counties, but otherwise the front will move through quietly with a wind shift to the northwest along with slightly drier and cooler air behind it. A little bit of fog may develop in our southeast counties this evening and overnight before the front clears that area, but widespread dense fog is not expected at this time. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s. Tomorrow will be a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, highs in the 60s and lower 70s, and light north winds. Upper level ridging temporarily builds over the region Saturday night ahead of our next upper level system. Cloud cover will overspread the region overnight, and some showers may occur in our far western counties before daybreak on Sunday due to weak isentropic lift. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Sunday through Monday, our next storm system, an upper level trough, will swing through the southern Plains bringing heavy rain and storms back to North and Central Texas. Rain and storms chances increase during the day on Sunday, in particular across North Texas, and then spread east through the rest of North and Central Texas Sunday night through Monday. Flash flooding and flooding will be the main concerns as this next storm system comes close on the heels of our most recent heavy rain maker that produced widespread 1-4" of rain across the region. The heaviest rainfall most recently occurred along a line from Comanche and Eastland counties into the DFW Metroplex counties, stretching northeast into Hunt and Delta counties. This broad area will be the most susceptible to flash flooding from additional heavy rainfall with the late weekend system. The most likely timing of the threat for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall will be Sunday night into Monday. Showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers, just like earlier this week, and widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" are currently forecast. The highest rainfall totals are currently forecast along and north of I-20, and this area is also where there is a low (10-20%) chance of a few areas receiving 4-5" totals, in particular where training of storms may occur. In addition to flash flooding, stream and creek rises are likely and some river flooding into the minor or moderate category is also expected. One additional thing we need to keep an eye on is the low potential for strong or severe storms in our western counties on Sunday afternoon-evening. SPC has a MRGL risk covering that area for elevated storms producing hail, but the latest model runs have limited MUCAPE despite decent shear and okay lapse rates. The rain will move east of the region Monday evening-night, and then a stronger cold front will drop through the state on Wednesday, bringing noticeably cooler weather just in time for Thanksgiving Day. We will end the week with highs in the 60s, and overnight lows will fall into the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 No significant changes over the next 24 hours with respect to aviation concerns across North Texas. Light westerly winds will become northwest around 10 kt later tonight with VFR generally prevailing through the period. There is some low potential for fog mainly from Waco southward...but drier air should filter in overnight and reduce this threat by morning. We`ll also be watching a bank of MVFR cigs to the north of the Red River which will spread southeast with time. These clouds should remain out of the D10 airspace but may clip areas to the northeast during the mid morning hours. Otherwise, no major aviation concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 50 67 50 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 77 51 68 49 / 50 0 0 0 Paris 75 48 65 47 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 75 45 67 44 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 76 47 66 46 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 76 51 67 50 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 77 49 67 48 / 30 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 54 70 51 / 50 0 0 0 Temple 79 50 70 49 / 60 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 79 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLDunn LONG TERM....JLDunn AVIATION...Dunn