Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
968 FXUS64 KFWD 041133 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 533 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Today will be cool and cloudy behind last night`s cold front. Occasional light rain and drizzle are expected across much of the area today. Some patchy fog will continue across portions of Central Texas this morning. - Near-normal temperatures return Friday and continue through the weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will return mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Patchy light rain and drizzle continues across the region, with some lingering patchy fog across our southern zones this morning. Scattered showers have moved into western North Texas early this morning, so PoPs were expanded a bit further north to account for this activity. Fortunately, temperatures are well above freezing across the entire forecast area, so any wintry precipitation will remain to our north/northwest. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains in good shape. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Occasional light rain, patchy drizzle, and patchy fog will continue across the region for the remainder of the night, with drizzle/light rain expected to expand in coverage as we get closer to daybreak. Dense fog has been very isolated, so we`ll continue to hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory and monitor trends through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front will continue moving southward, with northerly winds becoming breezy over the next several hours. While temperatures may get relatively close to the 32 degree mark in western North Texas, they should stay comfortably above freezing, keeping a cold rain or drizzle as the predominant precipitation type. Persistent isentropic ascent over the shallow, cold, post-frontal airmass will allow rain and patchy drizzle to continue through much of the day. The cold air combined with overcast skies will make for a rather chilly and dreary day, with high temperatures remaining in the 40s areawide. Any ongoing rain/drizzle this afternoon will gradually end from west to east as drier air finally filters into the region. Low clouds will persist into the evening, likely not clearing out for most areas until after sunset. However, dense cirrus will keep skies cloudy through most of the period. A light freeze is expected across much of North Texas Thursday night into Friday morning, with the exception of the DFW Metroplex. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s near the Red River to upper 30s in the Brazos Valley. Light southerly winds will return on Friday, with cloud cover sticking around for much of the day, especially across Central and East Texas. This will result in a decent west to east temperature spread Friday afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s in Central and East Texas and in the upper 50s/low 60s across our western zones. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A bit of a temperature rollercoaster is expected this weekend through mid to late next week, but rain chances will remain near zero. Sunny skies will return on Saturday, with a brief warm up expected as high temperatures climb into the upper 50s to upper 60s. A few locations in western North and Central Texas could even see highs in the low 70s. This warm up will be short-lived, as another cold front will move through the region Saturday night. A dry frontal passage is expected with the weekend front, as moisture will not have sufficiently recovered. Cooler temperatures in the 50s to low 60s are expected both Sunday and Monday behind the front with low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s likely for much of the area Monday morning. Temperatures will moderate from Tuesday onward, with afternoon highs returning to the 60s and low 70s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 IFR ceilings have lifted to MVFR across North Texas as expected. VFR has been intermittent at a few of the terminals over the past hour or two, but still expect MVFR conditions to prevail through the morning and part of the afternoon. Patchy rain/drizzle has been slow to develop across North Texas and has been rather hit- or-miss in Central Texas. However, we`re starting to see a slight uptick in this activity, so we`ll keep DZ/VCSH in the TAFs for now. LIFR and DZ/RA continue at KACT, but ceilings should lift to MVFR later this morning, likely when any precip comes to an end. Guidance has trended a bit more optimistic with ceiling trends this afternoon, but kept TAFs slightly on the pessimistic side for now. Ceilings will see some improvements around midday/early afternoon, with VFR expected to return sometime between 21-00Z at all terminals. North winds around 15 knots this morning will weaken through the afternoon, becoming light this evening. Light southerly winds are expected to return Friday morning, with wind speeds at or below 5 knots. Guidance still keeps any ceilings well east of the terminals tonight/Friday morning, so VFR is expected to continue through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 34 54 40 / 30 0 0 0 Waco 49 37 52 42 / 40 0 10 0 Paris 44 31 49 35 / 40 0 0 0 Denton 44 29 54 35 / 20 0 0 0 McKinney 44 30 52 38 / 30 0 0 0 Dallas 47 35 54 41 / 30 0 0 0 Terrell 47 33 52 39 / 40 0 0 0 Corsicana 49 37 53 43 / 50 10 10 10 Temple 50 37 54 42 / 40 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 47 30 60 36 / 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes