Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
377 FXUS64 KFWD 122335 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through this weekend, with highs in the 80s expected. - Showers and thunderstorm chances return Monday onward, with the highest chances near the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 It`ll be fairly tranquil through mid-late week as upper-level ridging spreads eastward across much of the CONUS. Underneath the subsident airmass, southerly winds and mostly clear skies will keep the warming trend going. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will peak in the 70s and 80s. Better Gulf moisture will begin to be pulled northward over the next couple of days as North and Central Texas become entrenched within the western periphery of the low-level ridge. This will promote a higher potential for both an overnight surge in low-level stratus and fog formation in portions of the region going into the Thursday morning commute. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Upper-level ridging will continue to be the main driver of our local weather as we head into this weekend. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to back off on any weekend/early week rain chances, and are now highlighting the expected pattern shift to occur next week. A cut off low will be located in the Desert Southwest this weekend and will gradually eject into the Central Plains early next week. The main lift from this system is now placed further to our north, limiting much of the previously forecasted rain chances. A deeper trough will become established to our west towards mid-late next week and will advance east, shunting a cold front through the region. Higher rain chances are more likely with this mid-week system, but there is still uncertainty on exact timing. Continue to check back through the rest of this week for more details as they become available. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR will prevail through most of the period with southerly winds continuing overnight and into Thursday. Increasing low-level moisture will support a gradual rise in humidity across the region, with some guidance continuing to hint at a brief period of low stratus or patchy BR across parts of the airspace near daybreak. Confidence in low ceilings impacting the D10 airports remains low as deterministic and MOS guidance keep probabilities of MVFR cigs below 20%, and low-level winds are expected to veer south- southwesterly toward sunrise. This pattern is not strongly supportive of widespread stratus moving into the Metroplex, however a narrow window for brief MVFR cigs or light BR between roughly 13-17Z cannot be ruled out, especially across southern and southeastern portions of the airspace. Given the low confidence and expected short duration, the D10 TAFs remain VFR at this time and any development will be addressed with amendments. At KACT, deeper boundary-layer moisture supports a higher probability of MVFR cigs and some light BR between 11-15Z, so the TEMPO group has been maintained here. Conditions should improve by mid to late morning as mixing increases. Beyond Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected areawide with southerly winds increasing to around 12-15 kts and occasional gusts up to 20 kt through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 58 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 54 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 51 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 54 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 58 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 55 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 59 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 55 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 51 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12