Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
368 FXUS64 KFWD 131827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue into early next week, with highs in the 80s expected. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday onward. The highest chances will be during the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Upper-level ridging will continue to dictate our regional weather through the rest of the workweek, keeping North and Central Texas abnormally warm and rain-free. Afternoon highs today will be able to peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s with abundant sun and persistent southerly winds. With the region remaining planted on the western periphery of the low-level ridge as we head into the weekend, the northward surge of increased Gulf moisture will allow for another night of low stratus clouds and patchy, sometimes dense, fog. Best chances for low clouds and fog will again be in Central Texas, like this morning. However, increased nocturnal low-level winds and 24 hours of additional moisture being pumped into the region will increase the chances of foggy and cloudy conditions in portions of North Texas during the morning commute on Friday. Any stratus or fog will gradually erode over the mid- late morning hours, making way for another sunny and warm afternoon with highs in the 80s. A lee-side surface low will develop tomorrow, leading to stronger winds and gusts over the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Our forecast will continue to be bland through this weekend into the first part of next week. Broad troughing will eventually move onshore the western CONUS this weekend, with the first of multiple shortwaves ejecting from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains as we near Monday. Unfortunately, latest guidance continues to keep this shortwave and its lift removed well to our north, and will not do much for our regional weather. A deeper, stouter shortwave will swing across the Plains eastward toward midweek, but will be located further south. This will spread stronger forcing for ascent across North and Central Texas midweek, leading to increasing rain chances. PWATs near or above 1.5", which is near the climatological maximum value (according to SPC`s sounding climatology)and long, skinny CAPE profiles would promote the potential for heavy rain during this time. Additionally, the latest GEFS and Euro ensemble guidance are both showing enough instability and shear to keep an eye on any severe potential. Bottom line: it is too early to go into any specifics regarding rain amounts or severe risks and threats, but make sure to keep an eye on the forecast as we head into the weekend and next week as more details will become available the closer we get to the time in question. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 BLUF - VFR the rest of today; low cigs and patchy BR/FG possible again Friday morning; gusty winds tomorrow afternoon. D10 - After a nice rest of today, flying conditions become a bit more uncertain near daybreak Friday. Another surge in low-level stratus is expected tonight through Friday morning, but there are better chances for impacts in D10 between 11-15Z this round. There is still enough uncertainty to forego a mention of MVFR or lower cigs at this time, but the potential will need to be closely watched the rest of today for any future inclusion. Any stratus that occurs will erode over the late morning, with VFR and strengthening southerly winds/gusts expected tomorrow afternoon. ACT - Another round of MVFR or lower stratus is expected overnight, with greatest chances of impacts to the terminals between 12Z-16/17Z. Similar to this morning, there could be even lower ceiling heights, but this will need to be watched for more agreement in guidance and how the clouds develop overnight. Any stratus or mist will gradually erode after daybreak, with increasing southerly winds and VFR expected to prevail tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 62 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 60 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 58 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 63 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 60 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 62 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 59 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 57 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater