Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
526 FXUS64 KFWD 190727 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return later today. Initial storms in our northeast will have a threat for isolated large hail. - Showers and storms will continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. - Additional storm chances return late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A weak front is currently draped near the Red River. This front is not really expected to move much further south into North Texas as its upper-level support continues to race off to the east/northeast CONUS. Otherwise, with cloud cover expected to continue to spread across the region this morning, expect morning lows to only dip into the mid 50s to mid 60s. The closed low responsible for our midweek pattern shift is currently just off the coast of southern California, and will continue to swing east into the Desert Southwest as we go through today. As this low gets closer, the weak front will be shunted back northward, with a dryline setting up just to our west. Over this afternoon isolated warm-advection showers will begin to develop, but more focused development is expected near the front and dryline in our west/northwestern zones early this evening. These initial storms will be more discrete in nature, and would have a threat for large hail given the > 7 degC/km lapse rates in place. The threat of tornadoes with these initial discrete storms is low, but non-zero, owing to less conducive low-level wind fields and some increased surface CIN in forecast soundings. However, there are two factors to watch: 1. wind speeds in the low-levels of the atmosphere are expected to increase Wednesday night, and 2. if surface winds become more backed compared to the low-level winds. If these things occur during the time of the more supercellular storms, this could locally increase the tornado threat. This will be something we`ll keep an eye on over the next 24 hours. Coverage of precipitation will increase overnight through Thursday as the upper low finally swings into the Southern Plains, spreading increased lift across the region. Showers and storms are expected on and off throughout the day, though storm mode would be a bit messier with lines and clusters expected. The overall severe threat for Thursday is on the lower end owing to a lack of substantial instability, however, there remains a potential for strong wind gusts with any better organized clusters or bowing segments that are able to develop. The biggest threat Thursday into Friday will likely transition to more of a hydrologic one as PWATs > 1.5" and long, skinny CAPE profiles continue to promote periodic heavy rain during this time. Flooding concerns will increase, particularly in areas that experience training showers/storms, and/or are in flood prone, low-lying spots. In total, most likely precipitation amounts continue to be a widespread 1-2" with isolated higher amounts up to around 4". The low will finally swing off to our northeast on Friday, shunting the Pacific front and rain chances further east/southeast, and eventually bring the cold front south through North and Central Texas. This will bring a general end to this round of showers and storms before our next system arrives later this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Behind Friday`s cold front, we`ll see cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. Highs on Saturday will peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Light rain will likely return during the day Saturday as increasing isentropic ascent spreads atop the post-frontal airmass ahead of an incoming upper level low off the coast of Southern California/Baja California. This low is progged to swing northeast into the Southern Plains as we end the weekend and go into next week, which will result in increasing rain chances. Exact rain amounts and locations of highest amounts remain uncertain this far out in time, as well as any specifics on the potential for severe or flooding. Continue to keep an eye on the forecast this week as more details will become available. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will stick around through early next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Concerns: MVFR cigs at ACT this morning; Increasing showers/storms tonight along with more MVFR cigs at all sites. Southerly winds will persist at all TAF sites through the next 24-30 hours. A surge in MVFR stratus is expected to move into Central Texas this morning, impacting ACT between 13-17Z, with patchy BR possible at this time. The stratus should remain south of the D10 sites, but this will continue to be monitored. Any cigs will lift over the morning, with VFR returning the rest of today. Out ahead of an incoming storm system, very isolated late afternoon showery development is possible, though is too isolated to include in the TAF at this time. Better chances for showers (and potentially thunder) will occur around 4-5Z onward, with coverage increasing towards the morning push. Lower cigs will also accompany the precipitation, but are just at the end of the TAF period and will be included in future issuances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 Waco 82 68 75 62 / 30 70 80 80 Paris 82 66 75 61 / 10 70 80 90 Denton 82 63 74 56 / 20 80 90 80 McKinney 83 66 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 Dallas 84 67 75 62 / 10 80 90 90 Terrell 83 66 76 62 / 10 70 80 90 Corsicana 84 69 79 65 / 20 70 70 80 Temple 82 67 77 61 / 30 60 80 80 Mineral Wells 85 64 76 56 / 40 80 90 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater