Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
483 FXUS64 KFWD 230808 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 208 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and storms are expected this evening through Monday evening. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding are the primary threats, although some storms west of I-35 could produce large hail this evening into tonight. - An increased potential for severe weather may materialize south of I-20 and east of I-35 Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, but a couple of tornadoes are possible. - A return to cool and dry conditions is expected Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 One last relatively quiet night is in store across the region as upper level ridging remains overtop the Southern Plains and our next storm system continues to churn over the Desert Southwest/Northwest Mexico. Continued northerly winds will persist through the early morning hours, bottoming out low temperatures in the 40s just after daybreak. The upper low out west will continue its expected northeastern trajectory today, eventually swinging into the Four Corners early this afternoon. As the low gets closer to our region, winds at the surface and low levels will shift back out of the south/southeast, promoting rapid northward moisture advection. As a result, cloud cover will increase significantly through the day, with showers and storms developing this afternoon to our west and southwest near the surface dryline/Pacific front and warm front. By late this afternoon into this evening, showers and storms will spread eastward into the Big Country and west-central North Texas. These storms will be elevated in nature above the cooler stable surface airmass, with high-resolution forecast soundings showing no surface-based CAPE. However, MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, deep layer shear over 50 kts, and lapse rates around 7 degC/km will allow for a few strong to severe storms with a threat for large hail this evening into tonight for areas west of I-35. Coverage of showers and storms will increase even more overnight through Monday morning across North Texas and western Central Texas as the upper low and attendant surface low move into Colorado/Kansas. The flood threat will really ramp up during this timeframe due to periodic heavy rain and training thunderstorms, especially for areas that received heavy rain last week. Caution is urged for any travelers tonight into tomorrow morning due to the potential for flooding, and always remember to "Turn Around, Don`t Drown." Most likely rainfall totals for the whole Sunday-Monday period have not changed much from the previous forecast, with widespread 1-3" across North Texas and 0.50-1.5" across Central Texas. Isolated totals of 4+" are not out of the question for areas for areas north of I-20. Considering our last round of precipitation, where the a wide swath of 1-4" fell over areas near and north of the I-20 corridor, a Flood Watch will likely be needed for portions of North Texas later this morning. As the low continues to swing by to our northeast on Monday, the system`s aforementioned dryline/Pacific front will be ushered eastward. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along the boundary, and grow into messy, disorganized line segments/clusters. Even so, the threat for severe storms will increase across eastern Central Texas (mainly south of I-20 and east of I-35) Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Increasing surface instability along with strong low and deep- layer shear and steep lapse rates will promote the potential for large hail and damaging winds in this area. However, of most concern with this forecast issuance is the increasing potential for a low tornado threat in eastern Central Texas. Latest forecast soundings show the environment in this area containing SBCAPE over 1500 J/kg and strong low-level shear and helicity. Although the exact tornado threat remains uncertain as we`ll need to see exactly how much instability and low-level spin we`re cooking with, we`ll be closely monitoring this potential and updating the forecast and messaging as needed. The severe threat and all of the rain is expected to shift off to our east by late Monday evening into Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Expect the middle of this upcoming week to be rather quiet and dry. The low that supplied our early week rain chances will finally eject off well to our northeast, shunting the system`s true cold front south through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect much cooler conditions Wednesday and Thursday with morning lows mainly in the 30s on Thanksgiving, and afternoon highs only in the upper 50s to mid 60s. With mostly clear skies and rain-free conditions, it`ll be a perfect day to wear cozy clothes and eat lots of turkey. By the end of the week, another shortwave disturbance will move across the Plains, ushering moisture back northward and bringing another round of rain as we head into the end days of November. More details on this will become available as we get closer in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Light north-northeasterly winds and cirrus clouds will persist through daybreak, though winds will gradually veer more towards the east-southeast over mid-late morning at all sites. Increasing mid-level cloud cover is expected this afternoon out ahead of an incoming storm system to our west. Showers and storms will initially develop well west of the TAF sites this afternoon, but will gradually spread east/northeast across North Texas later tonight, beginning to reach D10 closer to 03Z. Greater impacts to the D10 airports, along with MVFR cigs are likely after midnight, with higher coverage of showers and storms beginning around 07Z. ACT will remain drier for longer, but MVFR cigs will likely impact the airport just after the 24 hour TAF period. Beyond the 30 hour period, coverage of showers and storms will increase and flying conditions will deteriorate, but this will be covered in future TAF issuances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 57 71 53 / 20 90 90 10 Waco 68 61 73 51 / 10 50 90 20 Paris 65 54 65 51 / 0 80 100 30 Denton 66 53 71 47 / 20 100 90 10 McKinney 66 55 70 50 / 10 90 100 10 Dallas 68 58 71 53 / 10 90 100 10 Terrell 68 57 71 52 / 10 80 90 30 Corsicana 70 61 75 55 / 10 60 100 30 Temple 70 61 76 51 / 10 40 90 20 Mineral Wells 71 55 76 47 / 50 100 90 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater