206
FXUS63 KGID 141714
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1114 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record warm temperatures are expected today with highs in the upper
  70s to low 80s.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s-low 70s
  and mostly sunny skies.

- Cooler and rainy weather arrives on Monday, with rain possible
  (15-50%) mainly across south central Nebraska.

- Cooler and active weather continues through the end of the
  forecast period with highs in the 40s/50s and scattered
  chances (20- 40%) for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today...

Temperatures this morning range from the mid 30s (west) to the upper
40s (east). Patchy fog looks to stay just southeast of the area this
morning, though can`t completely rule out patchy (not dense) fog
sneaking into areas like Hebron or Beloit.

Temperatures will quickly climb above normal, surpassing their
climatological normal highs (low 50s) by the late morning hours.
Record warm temperatures are expected by the afternoon, as
temperatures top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. The record high at
Grand Island (71 degrees in 2001/1990) and Hastings (74 degrees in
1990) look to be surpassed/broken fairly easily. This will likely be
the warmest day for the rest of the year as upper 70s/80s are very
uncommon in the second half of November/December. Get outside and
enjoy this weather if you can!

The record warmth will result in afternoon relative humidity values
falling to around 15-25%. The strongest winds are expected to remain
northwest of the area, which should help to limit fire weather
concerns across the area. Still, areas north of I-80 could see winds
gusting around 20mph during the afternoon, resulting in a period of
near-critical fire weather conditions.

Saturday and Sunday ...

A passing shortwave trough pushes a cool front through the area on
Saturday. Cooler, but well above normal temperatures are expected on
Saturday as highs climb into the mid 60s (north) to low 70s. Mostly
sunny skies and northerly wind gusts below 20mph will make for an
overall pleasant day.

Seasonably warm temperatures continue on Sunday, as winds shift to
the south ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs in the 60s
are expected on Sunday, warmest across portions of north central
Kansas. Get outside and enjoy the weather this weekend if you can,
because cooler and more active weather arrives next week.

Monday and Tuesday..

A shortwave trough moves into the plains on Monday, bringing the
next chance for rain to the area. Model guidance continues to
support the center a low tracking across Kansas, with rain
developing along the warm front in Nebraska. Most guidance indicates
this system remaining entirely as rain, as cold air struggles to
filter into the system. The deterministic GFS continues to be an
outlier in bringing in colder air and resulting in a rain/snow mix
across Nebraska. Ensemble guidance shows little support for a
rain/snow transition, further suggesting that a transition to snow
(GFS) is an unlikely scenario. Given the track of the surface low,
the best chance for rain will be north of I-80, with the lowest
chances across north central Kansas. Rain accumulations will range
from little to no rain across north central Kansas (less than 0.10),
to a couple of tenths north of I-80. Rain chances come to an end
Monday night as the low moves into the Midwest, with lows dropping
into the upper 20s to low 30s Monday night.

Tuesday Onwards...

Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through the rest
of the forecast period with highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in
the 20s/30s. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move
through the area during this time period, though spread in model
guidance brings some uncertainty on the exact timing and position of
rain chances. Still, this active pattern results in scattered
chances (20-40%) through the end of the forecast period. For now,
these chances look to primarily bring rain, though this could change
as we get closer to the event and model alignment increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday with only a few
high-level clouds crossing through mainly this evening and
overnight. Winds will remain steady between 10-15kts out of the
southwest, before turning northerly Saturday morning as a weak
cold front passes through. 30-40kts of LLWS is possible
overnight, though not guaranteed between 8z and 13z. No
precipitation is expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump