Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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483 FXUS63 KGID 061814 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures climb into the 40s and 50s this afternoon, melting any light freezing precipitation that fell this morning. - Cooler on Sunday with highs in the 20s (northeast) to mid 30s (southwest). - Above normal temperatures return Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 40s-60s. - Active pattern continues into next week, with roller coaster temperatures above/below normal. Another chance for precipitation (15- 25%) arrives Wednesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The light precipitation is exiting our eastern forecast area as expected. We will see increasing breaks in the clouds with more sunshine this afternoon and warming temperatures into the 40s, even some 50s over north central Kansas. .UPDATE... Issued at 249 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The forecast remains largely on track regarding the wintry mix expected across western/northwestern portions of the forecast area this morning. Shortly after sunrise, a band of precipitation will move into western portions of the area. A warm layer of air aloft will result in snow melting into rain before reaching the surface. Surface temperatures through the mid-morning hours are expected to hover around or just below freezing. This will result in a mix of freezing rain where temperatures are below freezing, and rain where temperatures are above freezing. The band of mixed precipitation is expected to be fairly narrow/brief with a 1-2 hour window where locations could see a light glaze of ice. Still, wherever freezing rain occurs, slick roads and surfaces are possible for before temperatures climb above freezing. Areas most favored to see a light glaze of ice will be west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. By the late morning hours (10-11am) temperatures climb above freezing across the entire area, which results in any ice melting and an end to freezing rain potential. Cooler air aloft along/north of Highway 92 could result in a period of light snowfall, though any accumulations would be limited to a light dusting that melts fairly quickly. Any lingering precipitation exits northeastern portions of the area during the early afternoon hours. The forecast area will reside in the warm sector of the passing clipper system this afternoon, resulting in temperatures climbing into the 40s (central/northeast) to mid 50s (southwest). South- Southwest winds will be breezy at times, gusting 20-30mph. A cold front pushes through the forecast area this evening/tonight, bringing a shot of cold air to the area on Sunday. Breezy winds gusting 20-25mph are possible behind the front tonight. Sunday will be cooler, with highs in the low 20s (northeast) to mid 30s (southwest). Temperatures climb back above normal early next week with highs in the 40s and 50s Monday, and in the 50s and 60s Tuesday. The forecast pattern remains active under northwesterly flow aloft. Model guidance shows increasing spread (differences) moving into the middle of next week regarding the timing, strength and location of shortwaves/clipper systems. Still, some PoPs (15-25%) return to the forecast Wednesday night/Thursday as a clipper moves into the Plains/Midwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 As depicted by the HRRR earlier today, radar is now showing rain/snow showers developing over SD and moving into northern Nebraska. These are diurnally aided and should dissipate after sunset. A few of these could clip northeastern parts of the area, but nothing measurable/impactful is expected at this time. The main concern going forward is a brief wintry mix of light freezing rain, rain, and snow on Saturday as a fast moving shortwave moves through the area. The short duration of the event will limit impacts, but there is potential for a brief period of freezing rain 7am to noon on Saturday. HREF/HRRR/RAP all show light precipitation move in from the west shortly after sunrise on Saturday. At this time, surface temperatures will be subfreezing, with warmer temperatures aloft...favoring freezing rain (possibly mixed with ice pellets). Realistically, this will only last for 1-2 hours at any given location, but could result in some slick patches on roads before temperatures rise above freezing. The aforementioned models favor areas west of Highway 183 for the best chance for a glaze of ice, with a slightly lower threat further to the north and east. Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal and largely non- impactful for central Nebraska. Even the highest members from the HREF only show around 1 inch of snow along our northeasterly fringes. And that is assuming a 10:1 ratio...which is probably much too optimistic given the surface temperatures. Precipitation is expected to end by sunset on Saturday, allowing any wet surfaces to dry off before falling below freezing Saturday night. Winds flip to the northwest behind a cold front Saturday evening. Sunday is favored to be coldest day of the week, with most locations remaining below freezing. There are some hints for post-frontal snow showers on Sunday, but the overall model consensus remains dry for now. Temperatures trend significantly warmer for Monday/Tuesday, then moderate back closer to normal for the middle to end of next week. Overall, precipitation chances remain limited, although global ensembles show at least some chance for light precip mainly in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The precipitation has moved east of our TAF sites and we expect dry weather through Sunday morning. The wind will remain a bit gusty through mid afternoon as it gradually turns from southerly to southwesterly and eventually northwesterly as we head through the afternoon hours. We should see a little bit of a lull in the winds as the low pressure center tracks overhead late this afternoon, but then northwest/northerly winds will increase this evening behind the low. The other concern is the possibility for MVFR ceilings this evening through Sunday morning. The current model consensus is for persistent low MVFR ceilings most of the night, but can not rule out periods of IFR ceilings as well. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis/Wesely DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Wesely