483
FXUS63 KGID 061814
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1214 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climb into the 40s and 50s this afternoon,
  melting any light freezing precipitation that fell this
  morning.

- Cooler on Sunday with highs in the 20s (northeast) to mid 30s
  (southwest).

- Above normal temperatures return Monday and Tuesday with highs
  in the 40s-60s.

- Active pattern continues into next week, with roller coaster
  temperatures above/below normal. Another chance for
  precipitation (15- 25%) arrives Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The light precipitation is exiting our eastern forecast area as
expected. We will see increasing breaks in the clouds with more
sunshine this afternoon and warming temperatures into the 40s,
even some 50s over north central Kansas.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 249 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The forecast remains largely on track regarding the wintry mix
expected across western/northwestern portions of the forecast
area this morning. Shortly after sunrise, a band of
precipitation will move into western portions of the area. A
warm layer of air aloft will result in snow melting into rain
before reaching the surface. Surface temperatures through the
mid-morning hours are expected to hover around or just below
freezing. This will result in a mix of freezing rain where
temperatures are below freezing, and rain where temperatures are
above freezing. The band of mixed precipitation is expected to
be fairly narrow/brief with a 1-2 hour window where locations
could see a light glaze of ice. Still, wherever freezing rain
occurs, slick roads and surfaces are possible for before
temperatures climb above freezing. Areas most favored to see a
light glaze of ice will be west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. By
the late morning hours (10-11am) temperatures climb above
freezing across the entire area, which results in any ice
melting and an end to freezing rain potential. Cooler air aloft
along/north of Highway 92 could result in a period of light
snowfall, though any accumulations would be limited to a light
dusting that melts fairly quickly. Any lingering precipitation
exits northeastern portions of the area during the early
afternoon hours.

The forecast area will reside in the warm sector of the passing
clipper system this afternoon, resulting in temperatures climbing
into the 40s (central/northeast) to mid 50s (southwest). South-
Southwest winds will be breezy at times, gusting 20-30mph. A cold
front pushes through the forecast area this evening/tonight,
bringing a shot of cold air to the area on Sunday. Breezy winds
gusting 20-25mph are possible behind the front tonight. Sunday will
be cooler, with highs in the low 20s (northeast) to mid 30s
(southwest).

Temperatures climb back above normal early next week with highs in
the 40s and 50s Monday, and in the 50s and 60s Tuesday. The forecast
pattern remains active under northwesterly flow aloft. Model
guidance shows increasing spread (differences) moving into the
middle of next week regarding the timing, strength and location of
shortwaves/clipper systems. Still, some PoPs (15-25%) return to the
forecast Wednesday night/Thursday as a clipper moves into the
Plains/Midwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As depicted by the HRRR earlier today, radar is now showing
rain/snow showers developing over SD and moving into northern
Nebraska. These are diurnally aided and should dissipate after
sunset. A few of these could clip northeastern parts of the
area, but nothing measurable/impactful is expected at this time.

The main concern going forward is a brief wintry mix of light
freezing rain, rain, and snow on Saturday as a fast moving
shortwave moves through the area. The short duration of the
event will limit impacts, but there is potential for a brief
period of freezing rain 7am to noon on Saturday. HREF/HRRR/RAP
all show light precipitation move in from the west shortly after
sunrise on Saturday. At this time, surface temperatures will be
subfreezing, with warmer temperatures aloft...favoring freezing
rain (possibly mixed with ice pellets). Realistically, this
will only last for 1-2 hours at any given location, but could
result in some slick patches on roads before temperatures rise
above freezing. The aforementioned models favor areas west of
Highway 183 for the best chance for a glaze of ice, with a
slightly lower threat further to the north and east.

Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal and largely non-
impactful for central Nebraska. Even the highest members from
the HREF only show around 1 inch of snow along our northeasterly
fringes. And that is assuming a 10:1 ratio...which is probably
much too optimistic given the surface temperatures.

Precipitation is expected to end by sunset on Saturday, allowing
any wet surfaces to dry off before falling below freezing
Saturday night. Winds flip to the northwest behind a cold front
Saturday evening.

Sunday is favored to be coldest day of the week, with most
locations remaining below freezing. There are some hints for
post-frontal snow showers on Sunday, but the overall model
consensus remains dry for now.

Temperatures trend significantly warmer for Monday/Tuesday,
then moderate back closer to normal for the middle to end of
next week. Overall, precipitation chances remain limited,
although global ensembles show at least some chance for light
precip mainly in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The precipitation has moved east of our TAF sites and we expect
dry weather through Sunday morning. The wind will remain a bit
gusty through mid afternoon as it gradually turns from
southerly to southwesterly and eventually northwesterly as we
head through the afternoon hours. We should see a little bit of
a lull in the winds as the low pressure center tracks overhead
late this afternoon, but then northwest/northerly winds will
increase this evening behind the low.

The other concern is the possibility for MVFR ceilings this
evening through Sunday morning. The current model consensus is
for persistent low MVFR ceilings most of the night, but can not
rule out periods of IFR ceilings as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/Wesely
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely