717
FXUS63 KGID 080545
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1145 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers will quickly track east across the
  area (mainly north of I-80) between 3-9 PM today, little to no
  accumulation is expected.

- Temperatures climb back above normal on Monday and Tuesday
  with highs 45-55 Monday and 55-65 Tuesday.

- Fire Weather: It will be a little breezy on Tuesday (westerly
  gusts 20-25 mph) with lower RH values (25-35%), so will keep
  an eye on fire weather (mainly west/southwest of Tri-Cities)

- Progressively colder weather returns Wednesday onwards, as a
  series of clipper systems move through the area. Light snow
  (generally <1") is possible (20-40%) Wednesday night and again
  around Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The pattern of quick moving clipper systems coming out of the
northwest will continue. This will generally result in a roller
coaster of temperatures and a few chances for mainly light snow
(<1").

Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight...

Clouds have really hung around today and have resulted in
slightly lower temperatures than earlier forecast. Thus far
through 2 PM these have generally been shallow low clouds and
there has been no precipitation. However, we expect deeper
saturation and a thicker cloud deck to move across the area
from west to east mainly north of I-80 between 3-9 PM. Forecast
models indicate that this will quickly swing a broken band of
snow across our northern zones (north of I-80), likely lasting
less than 1 hour at any one location and dropping mainly trace
amounts of snowfall, but can not rule out an isolated 1/2" of
snow. If you are south of I-80 you are looking at just a few
flurries if anything this evening.

The 18Z HRRR has a very slight patchy fog signal mainly across
our southwestern zones with the wind becoming light overnight
and the clouds clearing out. Have not added this into the
forecast yet, but evening shift may want to keep an eye on
future model runs and see which way this trends.


Monday...

As mentioned above, there is that slight chance (20%) for
patchy fog early Monday morning and then southwest to westerly
winds work to warm us up through the day. The NBM in the Tri-
Cities indicates good confidence in high temperatures mainly
clustered between the upper 40s to lower 50s.


Tuesday...

This is looking like a Top 3 December day with good NBM
confidence indicated by a narrow model spread of highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 in the Tri-Citites to the lower 60s
southwest of the Tri-Cities.

It could be a little breezy with westerly wind gusts of 20 to
25 mph. Will also have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions
as dewpoints will be a little lower, but RH values will mainly
be in the 30-40% range for most areas, far western zones could
see RH values fall into the upper 20s Tuesday afternoon.


Wednesday through Friday...

We`ll have a little vort max (weak system) moving through our
area within the overall northwesterly flow regime. This could
bring some light snow to our forecast area as early as late
afternoon on Wednesday, but more likely Wednesday night. At this
point we are only talking about 20-40% chances of light snowfall
accumulation (<1") across Nebraska counties. Then we get another
little wave Thursday night into Friday morning that could (20%) bring
another round of light snow (<1"). Looking at dozens of
ensembles through this period (Wed-Fri), it appears that the
probability of getting more than 1" of snow is currently 20% or
less. This could change, but right now it just looks like a
little very light snow and colder conditions. We just get
progressively colder with additional pushes of cold air, mainly
40s on Wednesday, more folks in the 30s by Thursday, and then
mainly 20s by Friday and maybe even a few teens for highs
across our northeast on Friday. I should note that the model
temperature spread in the Tri-Cities is pretty high Thursday
(32-44F) and Friday (12-24F) with our current forecast closer
to the higher end temperatures on Friday so these forecast
temperatures could be coming down if current trends hold.


Next Weekend...

At this point, next weekend looks cold and dry. However, there
is a large model temperature spread of over 20 degrees between
the 25th and 75th percentile on Sunday`s high temperatures (19-42F).
So not much confidence in next weekend`s temperature forecast
yet, just too far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern is the potential for IFR stratus to sneak back into
mainly GRI early this morning. Have added a TEMPO BKN007 group
to GRI given satellite and sfc obs trends (i.e. HSI) showing the
back edge of the stratus stalling, and lifting N-NE a bit. Think
this will be most prevalent from around 06Z to 09Z. Can`t rule
out some light fog toward dawn, but latest thinking is that
steady 5-8kt SSW winds will be enough to keep this from becoming
an issue. The rest of the period should feature clear skies or
only high clouds. SSW winds this morning will veer to more Wrly
for the aftn hours and becoming modestly breezy (gusts ~20kt).
Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Thies