988
FXUS63 KGID 190521
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk of severe weather across a few northern portions of
the area tonight and across a few western portions tomorrow is in
place. The better areawide storm chances fall Saturday afternoon and
night.

- Temperatures are expected to continue to rise across the next
several days, approaching the 100s for a few of our Kansas and far
southern Nebraska areas SAT, MON, TUE and WED.

- The warmest day of the week looks to fall Tuesday with highs in
the 90s to low 100s and warmest towards the south.

- Heat Indices above 100 degrees will be possible for a few southern
areas Saturday and Sunday with widespread coverage starting Monday.

_ Off and on storm chances up to 20-35% return each day Sunday
through next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025


     Tonight...


A warm front jumping overhead today has lifted temperatures up to
around 10-15 degrees warmer from Thursday. Southerly winds peaking
near 15-20 MPH this afternoon will lighten some overnight, becoming
easterly again Saturday and Sunday as higher pressure across the
Great lakes region pulls away.

Precipitation chances tonight remain in place across our northern
portions of the area up to 25-35%. A cold front hanging to the
northwest will sweep down, potentially knocking up a few storms
between 8PM and 1AM. There is some question still to how broad the
coverage of storms may become. Any storms that does develop will
likely stay north of the Tri-Cities. It is not entirely impossible
for an isolated storm to pop out further south, though the best
chances realistically lie towards the north. A severe storm or two may
be possible tonight, though impacts should not become widespread.
An SPC slight risk clips portions of Valley, Greeley, Howard and
Sherman counties.


     Saturday...


The overall better storm environment and storm potential falls
Saturday afternoon and night in which storms will likely become
more widespread across the area. The BIG question yet to be well
understood is where and when storms will fire.

Condition wise, increasing temperatures should overall help increase
buoyancy with low to mid level lapse rates projected to range
between 6-8C/km. These thermal profiles point toward increased
instability with CAPE values now projected to approach and in a few
north areas, potentially exceed 4,000J/kg. Together these parameters
are sufficient enough to support strong updrafts and hail growth.
Moisture is also expected to be sufficient enough for convective
development (low 70s dewpoints with 1.5-2" PWATs). A few limiting
factors that leave some questions for the severe potential include
the presence of a few afternoon clouds that could limit diurnal
heating and the magnitude of instability as well as the general
lack of deep layer shear from generally weaker flow aloft (<30kts of
bulk shear).

Models currently diverge into two scenarios that point towards
different answers to when, where as well as how impactful storm
could become. Given a broad upper level wave, storms could be able
to develop anywhere across eastern Wyoming/Colorado to central
Nebraska between 4 to 8PM. The closer to central Nebraska these
storms develop, the overall better severe potential as well as
greater overall storm impacts will be possible for the area. This
scenario is currently featured well by the HRRR model. However, if
storms are not successful in developing until later in the evening or
further to the west, such as shown by the NAMNEST model, then the
sever potential threat should diminish some, but not entirely. In
this case, storms may arrive to the area much later, closer to 11PM
to 3AM. The SPC outlook for Saturday features a slight risk across
our west (closer to where storms would be approaching from) with a
marginal risk covering the rest of the area. Large hail up to ping
pong size with gusty winds up to 60 MPH would be the primary
threats. Locally heavy rainfall, especially given the higher than
average PWAT values, can`t be ruled out as well.


     Sunday and Beyond...


A few showers lingering Sunday morning from any Saturday night storm
remnant may be followed by yet another areawide 20-30% chance of
evening to nighttime storms. Though severe potential as well as storm
coverage will likely be less in magnitude compared to Saturday,
another passing shortwave disturbance prompts another SPC marginal
risk to return to the full area. General pop up thunderstorm chances
return each day through the remainder of the 7-day forecast period
(chances up to 35%). The severe potential beyond Sunday is just to
far out to nail down any specifics at this point in time.

Besides the precipitation/storm potential, The main story next week
will be the heat. The main contributor, other than the fact that we
are reaching our climatologically speaking warmest part of the
year, will be from a strengthening south central U.S. ridge. The
weak zonal flow that has stayed fairly consistent over the area, will
be pushed northward as mid to upper level heights rise over the
south central U.S. This ridging pattern should stick around for
several days, aiding in compressional (adiabatic) warming.

Highs Sunday through Tuesday will gradually rise a few degrees each
day, toping out for the week between the 90s to low 100s on Tuesday.
100 degree temperatures will be possible in a few Kansas and far
southern Nebraska areas Monday through Wednesday afternoon. In
addition, heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees across the
full area during these days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

In the near term, thunderstorms in central Nebraska will impact
both airports in the form of an outflow related wind shift
around 07-08Z...give or take. Initial gusts with the outflow
have been near 25KTS though that shouldn`t dampen as the outflow
pulls farther ahead of the storms. The leads to a 2nd potential
impact of the thunderstorms themselves. Radar looks fairly
impressive in suggesting KGRI will experience at least some of
of the storms. Have included a PROB30 for T-storms in the KGRI
area for a few hours after the wind shift. The western extent
of the storms is limited and its current trajectory suggests
KEAR will not be impacted (aside from the wind shift).

The outflow will essentially act like a frontal passage in terms
of keeping the wind from the east/northeast for much of the day.
VFR ceilings and visibility are expected most of the day along
with dry conditions, but there is an increasing probability of
more storms tonight moving in from western Nebraska.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz