851
FXUS63 KGID 040916
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
316 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today along
  and west of a line from Valley County to Furnas County.

- While the forecast remains dry for now, there are some
  indications of precipitation on Saturday across northern
  portions of the area.

- High temperatures today through Monday will range from the mid
  40s to upper 70s. Low temperatures will range from the low 20s
  to mid 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Today through tonight...

An upper ridge is centered over the Gulf Coast with a weak
trough/shortwave over parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Winds across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are
mostly out of the east to southeast with temperatures in the 30s and
40s. Winds will shift towards the west and southwest today as a
surface trough strengthens across the area. These conditions will
result in temperatures today warming up into the 70s areawide. Near
critical fire weather conditions are expected today mainly along and
west of a line from Valley County to Furnas County where minimum
relative humidity values of 15% to 25% are expected. While sustained
winds will not be near criteria across this area, wind gusts will
get up to around 17 to 23 mph. A cold front will move through the
area tonight with northerly winds. Low temperatures are expected to
range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Wednesday through Friday night...

A surface high associated with the cold front will impact Nebraska
and Kansas on Wednesday. High temperatures will range from the mid
50s to low 60s with winds transitioning towards the east and
southeast. The surface high will move to the east and southeast
Wednesday night with southerly winds and temperatures cooling into
the mid to upper 30s. Southwest to west winds will be present across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on
Thursday with temperatures warming up into the 60s. A weak cold
front will push into the area Thursday night with northwest winds
and low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. High temperatures
on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures
Friday night will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday through Monday...

A broad upper trough will be over the region on Saturday with a
strong cold front pushing into south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas. Gusty northwest winds will accompany this
front on Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be
in the mid 50s to mid 60s. At this time, the forecast is dry for
Saturday although some models indicate precipitation developing and
moving across northern portions of the area. Temperatures Saturday
night will drop into the low/mid 20s to low 30s. A big surface ridge
will be over the central part of the country on Sunday. High
temperatures for south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas for Sunday are expected to be in the mid 40s to low
50s. Nebraska and Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough
Sunday night with low temperatures across the area in the 20s. The
upper trough and surface high/ridge will shift slightly eastward on
Monday. High temperatures on Monday across the area are only
expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and precip-free
conditions throughout...with minimal cloud cover in the wake of
a rather pronounced batch of high cirrus currently in the
process of moving out.

That leaves winds as the main "story" (and honestly not much of
one for much of the period). Overnight, speeds will prevail at-
or-below 8KT from the south-southeast. During the daytime
Tuesday, speeds will pick up a bit as direction turns
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front...but even
then we are only talking sustained speeds 10-12KT/gusts up to
around 17KT (strongest 18-22Z). Finally, late in the period
Tuesday evening, the leading edges of the cold front will
approach and likely "officially" pass through sometime around
05Z (give or take an hour), marked by a shift to northwest winds
likely sustained 12+KT (later TAFs will be able to provide more
detail on the "exact" timing/intensity of this frontal
passage).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch