782
FXUS63 KGID 301126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lows this morning will settle between mainly 5 to 15 with wind
  chills near and just below 0 degrees (as low as -8 degrees).

- Temperatures this afternoon will not escape the 20s with lows tonight
  also in the upper single digits to low 20s. Temperates and
  wild chills for Monday night will also likely be even a few
  degrees colder.

- Light snow of up to 2" across our Nebraska areas and up to 3"
  across our Kansas areas will fall late Sunday night into
  Monday morning from a quick passing system. The best chances
  and amounts generally increase towards the south. Mixed
  precipitation is not be expected (only snow).

- Temperatures Wednesday night could fall to their coldest point
  so far of the season. Locations northeast of the Tri-Citices
  could see temperatures approaching and even falling below 0
  degrees (to as low as -2 degrees).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025


The Cold Temperatures this Morning through Monday Night...

Lows this morning are on their way into the single digits to teens
as steady 10-15MPH northwest winds push in a colder airmass from the
north. Temperatures today will not be able to recover much with
overcast skies returning and the cold air advecting winds helping
keep highs in the 20s. A 1035mb surface high pressure center
crossing over the area from the Northern Plains today should help
lighten winds and will also bring an end to the northwest cold
advection pattern. Despite the change in winds, overnight
temperatures across the next two nights should still be able to
range the upper single digits to low 20s Sunday night and the single
digits to low teens Monday night. Wind chills both night, even given
the lighter winds, may still bite into the low single digits to
even just a few degrees below 0 (especially Monday night).

The coldest night of the week could come Wednesday night as highs in
a few northeastern areas could fall as low as -2 degrees. The rest
of the area, including the Tri-Cities, will see temperatures in the
single digits to low teens. Wind chills Thursday morning could fall
as low as -10 degrees in a few northeastern locations.


The Next Shot at Precipitation: Late Sunday Night into Monday
Morning...

A weak disturbance ejecting out of the Rockies on Sunday will make
its rounds over the Central Plains late Sunday night into Monday. A
broad swath of light snow is expected to reach the area between 7PM
to just after midnight on Sunday night. Light snow will carry on
through a part of the morning hours, likely covering all of North
Central Kansas and most if not all of South Central Nebraska with at
least a a trace to few inches of snow (up to 2-3"). Models are well
tuned to the start/end times of the snow with the end to
accumulating snow expected to spread from west to east between 9AM
to just after 1PM.

Between the both higher and lower resolution models, the ECMWF
(generally one of the better models for synoptic snow events) is the
only outlier that show generally less accumulation amounts and a
even farther southern track of the system. Beyond this anomaly, our
forecast has increased totals some as better confidence emerges. Our
current forecast projects anywhere from a trace to just over 2" of
snow across our Nebraska areas, with amounts up to just over 3" in a
few of our Kansas places. The better snow confidence and likely
longer snowfall residence times should be concentrated towards the
south.

Looking more into the thermal environment, temperatures should be
well cool enough to keep any precipitation in the form of snow. DGZ
widths of 1-2km will help keep snow ratios well above a 10:1, with
snow ratios likely up to between 14-18:1 (generally a more fluffy
and drier snow). Blowing snow will likely not be a problem given
the presence of more lighter winds (<15MPH).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The area is living through the after effects of the most recent
system which dropped 1 to 2" of snow for most locations on top
of a light glaze for some areas. The main really short term
issue the winds gusting to 45-50 mph causing some blowing snow
and then some flurries that developed in the instability of the
day. NO additional accumulation is expected, but visibilities
may be down to 2 miles at times the next few hours.

Obviously its cold out there with wind chills near 10 above.
The wind won`t really drop off...at least higher end gusts...
till about 8-11 pm for most areas and then remain slightly
gusty overnight. That will push wind chills below zero to make
it feel like the coldest night of the season. Not much warm up
tomorrow as temperatures can only climb into the lower and
middle 20s with clouds spilling into the area. Windspeeds will
be much lower as surface high pressure ridging moves across the
area and turns winds to the south by evening.

The next precipitation event...all light snow...remains on
track for overnight Sunday until about Noon Monday. Models
remains consistent in general timing and snow amounts (light)
but do vary a bit in place at this point. Speaking of amounts,
high snow ratios of 15 or 18 to 1 will promote a light fluffy
(not stuffy) snow which could add up 2" in some areas pretty
easy. As of now, those higher amounts are forecast across north
central Kansas and far southern Nebraska with amounts tapering
off to the north to less than an inch, but this could waver
north or south a bit with future forecasts. One key positive is
winds will be fairly light so little to no blowing snow is
expected. Also of note is the timing, centered on the Monday
morning commute. The snow is light but will likely slow things
down getting to-and-fro during the morning hours Monday.

Clearing will move in late the day Monday and with light winds,
good radiational cooling will push Monday lows into the single
digits for many locations.

After Monday, the rest of the forecast is dry, though there are
some hints at very light precipitation potential (trace type
events) Friday and Saturday thanks to the region still impacted
by cyclonic flow aloft. However, those events are so light and
so far out, neither are in the forecast at this point. That also
spells colder than normal temperatures most of the week though
with some moderation by the end of the week closer to normal.
Wednesday will be coldest day with a frontal passage and a
period of slightly stronger northwest winds.

Looking just beyond this forecast cycle, ensembles and weekly models
suggest the potential for a more substantial warm up beginning
around the 10th to 13th. If it materializes,the warm-up would
push mid-month temperatures above normal for a time. However
looking beyond that, the end of December shows a colder than
normal temperature trend. Overall, it appears this December
will be colder than December`s in recent years, be a bit more
"up-and-down" temperature wise.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Broken to overcast skies should dominate the day and night with
MVFR ceilings possible early this morning (30-40% chance) and
probable overnight tonight (80-90% chances). Low-end MVFR
ceilings increase in potential between 2-12z. In addition,
visibilities could drop down to 2-4SM starting between 6-9z as
light snow moves into the area.

Winds should remain light all day as higher pressure moves
through the area. Winds begin out of the north and gradually
swing towards the southeast through the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Stump