122
FXUS63 KGID 091725
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The chance for precipitation is limited through the rest of
  the week, though a few late night lingering storms/showers
  could meander into a few northwestern parts of the area
  (15-20% chance) Friday night.

- Temperatures stay in the 70s to mid 80s through Sunday, dropping
  down to the low 60s to mid 70s Monday and Tuesday.

- An upper level disturbance could bring scattered showers with
  a few storms to the area Sunday night (10-20%), with slightly
  better confidence Tuesday (25-40% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025


Today through Saturday...

This morning, temperatures are on there way down to the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Out west where the winds are a touch lighter (areas west of
HWY-183), some patches of fog may develop/drift down from the
western third of NE/KS. This bank of fog will not be expected to
reach too far into central Nebraska/Kansas due to the more steady
winds in place (5-10MPH). Today the area falls in between two
surface pressure features including an around 1036mb high pressure
center just to our east over the Great Lakes / Midwest region and a
low pressure trough stretched down from eastern Montana to eastern
Colorado. These features together will keep the southerlies fairly
steady this afternoon (10-15MPH and gusting up to 25MPH). This lower
pressure will gradually move from west to east across the Central
Plains today and Friday.

Aloft, a broad ridge covers the entire Central United States,
keeping skies mostly clear and minimizing precipitation chances (Non-
mentionable PoPs through Friday evening). Highs this afternoon
should peak between the mid 70s to mid 80s. Both a warm followed by
a weak cold frontal passage tied to the surface trough, will
temporarily break up the southerly winds Friday. Despite the fronts,
highs should remain in the ballpark as today (mid 70s to low 80s).

A small 15-20% chance of showers and non-severe storms late Friday
night will be possible as remnants from a few afternoon storms
initiating across eastern Colorado and the Nebraska panhandle will
meander east overnight. Though these storms should be in the process
of weakening/dissipating, a few could potentially clip portions of
mainly our western to northwestern areas (locations west and north of
the Tri-Cities). Any accumulations should remain minor (<0.25").

By Saturday winds should be able to find their footing back to a
southeasterly direction, with likely breezier conditions in store as
gusts in the afternoon hours could reach up to 25-30MPH. Highs will
remain fairly stable under the maintaining ridge aloft (mid 70s to
mid 80s).Some more excessive cloud coverage to the northeast could
keep highs, however, in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the northeast
half of the area. A building Northwest Pacific trough could shake
things up over the beginning of next week as it will soon be
preparing to interject a shortwave trough across the region as
early as Sunday.


Sunday and Beyond...

A bit of complexity enters our forecast for next week as another
cold front ejecting out from the Rockies, will create strong
baroclinicity (thermal gradient) over western and central Nebraska,
empowering the strong (150+kt) upper-level jet aloft. As of now,
the nose of the jet is projected to just pass northwest of the local
area, setting up the most favorable precipitation environment/region
(peak hydrostatic assent) north of the area. This is not to say that
no showers or storms will be present, though chances remains fairly
limited with the passing front (only 10-20% Sunday night).
Temperatures between Sunday and Monday should drop from the 80s to
the mid 60s to low 70s behind the front.

The next mentionable PoPs return Tuesday (25-40%) as a second
embedded shortwave may provide slightly more instability from
slightly more pronounced mid-level vorticity advection over the
area. There is still a few variables that are not quiet resolved
well between the GFS/ECMWF in terms of timing (narrowing down the
precipitation window), though the best synoptic support looks to
favor storms/showers on Tuesday in comparison to Sunday night.
Otherwise, highs looks to remain in the 60s again Tuesday,
partially credit to overcast skies, with temperatures looking
to warm into the 70s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The eastern edge of a slowly eroding MVFR stratus deck sits
over KEAR. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly it
erodes, but VFR conditions are expected to return by the mid-
late afternoon hours. Have indicated this uncertainty with a
TEMPO VFR group through 20z. Overnight a cold front moves
through the area, with patchy fog possible behind front. The
most likely time for fog will be around sunrise, though the
position, duration, and density of fog (MVFR vs IFR vs LIFR) in
any area remains uncertain. Have indicated this potential with a
TEMPO MVFR visibility group from 09-13z Friday.

Southerly winds currently gusting around 20kts will gradually
decrease this afternoon, becoming light and variable this
evening. A cold front moves through the area overnight, with
winds remaining variable, but becoming northerly by sunrise on
Friday. Winds increase slightly after sunrise with sustained
winds of 8-10kts by the end of the taf period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis