130
FXUS63 KGID 241124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog and rain showers this morning...clearing this
  afternoon and evening.

- Very windy on Tuesday. Northwesterly gusts 40-50 MPH are
  expected for most, and areas near/north of Highway 92 could
  see gusts around 55 MPH.

- Accumulating snow is possible Friday-Sunday, but confidence
  is low in specific details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Some patchy fog remains possible this morning...the most
extensive is currently southwest of the area, but could expand
northeastward around sunrise. Otherwise, no significant changes
for today. Light rain showers persist over parts of the area
this morning, gradually diminishing in the afternoon.

Northwest winds for Tuesday have increased behind the cold
frontal passage. Widespread gusts in the 40-50 MPH range are
expected...both directly following the frontal passage early
Tuesday morning and again later in the afternoon as mixing
increases. Northern areas (Highway 92 northward) could
occasionally see gusts near 55 MPH, but ensembles still favor
winds remaining below high-wind warning criteria.

Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected for
Wednesday/Thursday, but dry conditions are still favored.

Details for the rest of the Holiday Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
remain uncertain. Multiple rounds of mixed precipitation are
possible. Lift ahead of an upper shortwave result in light snow
for parts of the area on Friday, with additional snow (mixed
with rain for some) possible on Saturday/Sunday. Overall,
ensembles have widely varied solutions, leading to reduced
forecast confidence. Accumulating snow is certainly possible,
but a significant snow event remains unlikely at this point. The
probability for 2"+ of snowfall is around 30% for most of the
area (per 01Z NBM).

Colder air behind this system is favored to keep high
temperatures in the 20s for Sunday/Monday, and wind chills may
dip below zero for parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tonight through Monday...

Mid to high clouds are just beginning to filter into our
forecast area this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level
storm system from the southwest. Clouds will continue to
increase and lower through the evening hours as the upper low
kicks out into the plains. Forecast models are in good agreement
that this system will bring a swath of light rain to much of our
forecast area overnight primarily after 6 PM over north central
Kansas and closer to midnight or later over most of south
central Nebraska. The peak time frame for the Tri-Cities to
possibly get a little light rain will be between midnight and 9
AM. Model ensembles give our forecast area a 40-70% chance for
0.10" but only a 5-20% chance for 0.25". Expect most areas will
see a trace to 0.10" with just a few higher end rainfall amounts
around 0.25".

Although light rain could still be around later Monday morning
into Monday afternoon, the chances will be decreasing, showers
should be more isolated, and any amounts would be light.
Temperatures will still be mild in the 50s on Monday despite
the thick low clouds. We do not expect to see 50 degree weather
again through the rest of the 7 day forecast period after
Monday.


Tuesday and Wednesday...

Another fast moving storm system, this time a clipper out of the
northwest will bring snow to the Dakotas as it tracks to our
north into Minnesota. For our area this system will just bring
gusty northwest winds (35-45 mph gusts) with the strongest gusts
northwest of the Tri-Citites, and colder air (Highs 40s, lows
teens to lower 20s).


Thanksgiving Day...

Most model ensemble are dry through Thanksgiving day, with just
a few (<10%) indicating a chance for a few flurries or
sprinkles. The wind should be light <10 kts, but it will not be
a very pleasant day with good confidence that highs will only be
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.


Friday...

This is becoming a bit more interesting. The NBM is still
calling for less than a 20% chance for snow, so the official
forecast remains dry for now. However, we are seeing an uptick
in ECMWF ensemble members (20-30%) with snow for portions of our
forecast area this day, it would generally be light with
greater likelihood across northeastern and eastern Nebraska. GFS
ensembles don`t give our area as much, but do still hint at the
potential for light snow for areas just to our east. Just note
that although Friday is dry for now for our area, that could
change and especially if you are heading east that day.


Saturday and Sunday...

The winter weather potential will increase Saturday and Sunday
with at least 50% of the 00Z ECMWF ensemble members now
indicating the potential for accumulating snow at some point as
we close out the holiday weekend. There is still a significant
amount of uncertainty with how the next upper low will come out
of the western United States. There are a variety of model
solutions, from coming out quickly as a weaker progressive
trough, to cutting off over the southwest U.S and coming out
into the plains more slowly, and the tracks are still all over
the board. Bottom line, is that it will be colder (20s-30s) and
a storm system could bring snow to at least portions of the
plains as we end the holiday weekend so keep an eye on forecast
updates through the week if you have holiday travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Generally MVFR ceilings are expected through the morning,
occasionally dipping to IFR (with potential for periods of IFR
fog as well). Ceilings then improve this afternoon, and skies
clear this evening.

Winds remain light today and turn to the northwest.
Light/variable winds are expected tonight, until a front moves
through early Tuesday morning.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels