618
FXUS63 KGID 040442
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1042 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The forecast for this current 7-day forecast remains dry.
  There are a few disturbances expected to cross the
  Plains...the one that brings a question mark to the dry
  forecast looks to move in during the afternoon Sat into Sat
  night. Hard to have much confidence in the details that far
  out.

- The overall warmest day of the next week is Tuesday, with
  highs forecast to reach into the mid-70s for much of the area.
  Along with falling dewpoints, relative humidity values in the
  mid-teen to mid-20 percent range will be possible west of HWY
  281. Main limiting factor for fire weather concerns lies with
  winds, with the better potential for gusts of 20+ MPH being
  west of the forecast area.

- Cold front moving through Tue night drops highs for Wednesday
  back into the 50s-60s...with no notable swings either way
  expected for highs the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Currently...

Dry conditions continue to reign across the region today.
Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing westerly
flow in place, as the forecast area sits under broad ridging
atop an area of high pressure centered over TX. Elsewhere,
troughing continues push through the eastern CONUS, with an
embedded area of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Coast.
Satellite imagery also showing a shortwave disturbance working
its way through the central/northern portions of UT. Had plenty
of sun through the first half of the day, but more upper level
cloud cover has been streaming in from the west this
afternoon...a trend expected to continue the rest of the day. At
the surface, high pressure has been gradually sliding east
across the forecast area...bringing a switch from the more
easterly winds this morning to more southeasterly winds this
afternoon. Speeds mainly north of I-80 and along/east of HWY 281
have been around 10 MPH...further south/west, there have been
gusts near 20 MPH at times. As far as temps go, spots will end
up a few degrees warmer than forecast...with dewpoints early
this afternoon already several degrees lower than expected, with
upper teens to low 20s across the area. This has resulted in
relative humidity values falling to near/below 20 percent...but
winds have remained below levels for critical fire weather
concerns.

Tonight through Tuesday night...

No changes made to the forecast being dry through this short
term period.

This evening/tonight...models showing that above mentioned upper
level shortwave disturbance over UT pushing east across the
forecast area...but too dry to result in precipitation. Main
impact from this wave will be increased cloud cover passing
through the region. Winds will continue to gradually transition
with time, becoming more southerly as sfc high pressure moves
further east and troughing develops over the High Plains. Winds
remain on the lighter side, around 10 MPH through the overnight
hours...lows are forecast to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s.

During the daytime hours on Tuesday, models showing another
weaker upper level shortwave disturbance impacting the central
CONUS, but is another dry passage. This brunt of this wave, and
any accompanying precipitation chances, is expected to remain
to our north over the Dakotas...with the main impact for our
forecast area being another surface frontal boundary passing
through. Models showing the main cold front lagging off to the
NW of the forecast area during the daytime hours...but a pre-
frontal trough axis will be sliding into at least western
portions of the area during the afternoon hours. The southerly
winds to start the day will turn more southwesterly with time,
and more westerly near/behind that trough axis. Late tonight
into the morning hours Tuesday, should see dewpoints in the
30s-40s work their way back north into the area in that
southerly flow...with one uncertainty during the afternoon hours
is how low/mixed out those dewpoints become in the more WSW
flow. Did lower forecast dewpoints some...with western areas in
the upper 20s-low 30s, mid 30s-low 40s further east. Any
westerly component to the winds increases the concern that
temperatures could `overachieve`...especially with little
overall cloud cover expected (could see some upper level clouds
lingering around in spots)...so did bump up temps a bit, have
mid 70s in the forecast.

As a result, for areas roughly along/west of HWY 281, afternoon
relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the mid-teen
to mid-20 percent range, with the lowest values west of HWY 183.
The main limiting factor as far as fire weather conditions go
lies with the winds. The timing of that sfc boundary moving into
western areas keeps the better potential for gusts of 20+ MPH
off to the WNW of the forecast area (but not by a whole
lot)...keeping the chances for hitting critical fire weather
conditions (gusts 25+ MPH and RH at/below 20 percent) on the low
side. No formal fire headlines issued...but incoming forecast
shifts will be keeping a close eye on how things trend.

The main cold front is expected to push SE through the area
Tuesday night, clearing the forecast area by 12Z Wednesday. No
precip expected, but it will bring a switch in winds to the NW.

Wednesday on into early next week...

Cooler air accompanying Tuesday night`s frontal passage will
drop highs for Wednesday to back closer to normal for this
time of year, forecast to top out in the mid 50s north to low
60s south. Another dry day...plenty of sun expected...overall
light winds turning more east-southeasterly with time as surface
high pressure slides SE through the area.

The forecast for the remainder of this week and on into the
start of the new week remains dry. Models showing varying
degrees of generally west to northwesterly flow Thursday through
Monday...but the pattern is not free from disturbances moving
through. Models are in pretty good agreement keeping the
forecast area precip-free with the first disturbance moving
through roughly around Thu night-Fri AM...with another quick on
its heels, moving into the area roughly Sat afternoon into Sat
night. This disturbance looks to potentially but a bit
stronger/dig a touch further south...models hinting at the
chance for some at least light QPF to clip NNE portions of the
forecast area. For Sun-Mon, models have sharper NWrly (and dry)
flow returning to the forecast area.

Not looking at any significant swings in temperatures at this
point...current forecast highs Thu-Mon peak on Thu in the 60s,
are lowest on Sun in the upper 40s-mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and precip-free
conditions throughout...with minimal cloud cover in the wake of
a rather pronounced batch of high cirrus currently in the
process of moving out.

That leaves winds as the main "story" (and honestly not much of
one for much of the period). Overnight, speeds will prevail at-
or-below 8KT from the south-southeast. During the daytime
Tuesday, speeds will pick up a bit as direction turns
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front...but even
then we are only talking sustained speeds 10-12KT/gusts up to
around 17KT (strongest 18-22Z). Finally, late in the period
Tuesday evening, the leading edges of the cold front will
approach and likely "officially" pass through sometime around
05Z (give or take an hour), marked by a shift to northwest winds
likely sustained 12+KT (later TAFs will be able to provide more
detail on the "exact" timing/intensity of this frontal
passage).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch