138
FXUS63 KGID 131918
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
118 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm, record breaking air is still expected
  Friday, temperatures will likely reach at least 80 degrees at
  many locations.

- Dry frontal passage Saturday AM will cool things off for the
  weekend but temperatures will still be well above normal.

- The next chance for precipitation is Monday with rain and some
  snow in the forecast, but this also ushers in a general
  pattern change to a more active overall likely to last through
  the end of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Unseasonably warm, record breaking air is still expected Friday, as
temperatures will likely reach 80 degrees at many locations.

- Dry frontal passage Saturday AM will cool things off for the
weekend but temperatures will still be well above normal.

- The next chance for precipitation is Monday with light rain in the
forecast for some areas, but this also ushers in the start of a
general pattern change to a more active pattern overall, which is
likely to last through the end of November.

Another mild afternoon across the area as skies have generally
cleared or will do so. Some locations reached today`s normal high
temperatures by 10:30 AM! Lee side troughing influencing the western
portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas has
resulted in a mix of winds from the south/southwest/west/northwest
but winds will generally setting into a southerly direction this
evening. Speaking of this evening/overnight, skies will be clear
with lows above normal again.

Friday, as has been well advertised, will bring record breaking warm
temperatures to the area. Bumped temperatures up a few degrees all
areas as guidance trends have been steadily warmer given sunshine
and increasing southwest wind, which will be locally gusty in some
areas. Records at Grand Island (71 degrees in 2001/1990) and
Hastings will (74 in 1990) will fall. Unofficially, if most places
(though not all) reach 80-83 degrees, those places will also likely
break records. This is the last 80-degree potential day for the
season. Enjoy.

After a very mild night Friday night, the cooler air for the weekend
will be thanks to a cold front moving across the area Satudray
morning. The front will be dry with passing clouds, but stronger
north/northwest winds gusting all day Saturday. The "cooler" air
isn`t all that cool for mid-November with highs ranging from 62 to
72 degrees, though the breeze will put some chill in the air. Sunday
will be a touch cooler, though still 7-10 degree above normal and
with lighter winds bending back to a southerly direction.

Looking ahead to next week, the pattern is much more active and
unsettled starting with an initial shortwave on Monday (17th). Most
recent model trends have settled on a surface low moving across
southern Nebraska with the best precipitation to the north. That has
been the trend for recent model runs. Temperatures are cooler but
favor more the chilly rain and the snow that was in the previous
forecast has been removed. Rain amounts may rain from 035" north of
Grand Island to a trace or a few hundredths in north central Kansas.

Basically after that, its a series of weaker shortwaves embedded in
a progressive series of long waves moving across the Central Plains,
interlaced with roughly 2 day periods of dry weather. This pattern
looks active in the general region, though hard to get very specific
with timing/impacts at this point. The pattern also looks like it
could last through end of November with period rain/snow chances.
Temperatures will be cooler next week week but still roughly near
normal. Ensembles suggest a notch colder air will move into the
region around the 24th/25th and likely last trough the Thanksgiving
Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies expected through the
period.

Light southwest winds briefly turn more southerly this evening
before turning back to the southwest tonight into Friday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

With the record breaking warmth coming, that often results in fire
weather issues in  November. Friday afternoon is a time of some
concern though it appears to be just short of Red Flag Criteria
for a 3 hour period, but pretty close. High temperatures will be
in the lower 80s and relative humidity values will tank to
about 20%, and they may go lower at times. Winds will be light
across north central Kansas/far southern Nebraska, but will be
stronger as one moves north of Highway 6...then I-80...and then
Highway 92 in south central Nebraska. Gusts over 20 mph are
likely in the afternoon but with the uncertainty of just how
long or how strong those winds will be. Worthy of a mention in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook at this point, and also worthy of
a close watch on conditions Friday afternoon should they be
become more extreme.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...NOAA/NWS/Moritz