575
FXUS63 KGID 110526
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1126 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures return on Tuesday and continue for
  the rest of the work week. Expect afternoon highs in the 60s
  to around 70F each afternoon!

- Dry weather will prevail until a cold front and large scale
  pattern change arrives on Saturday. The weekend will be cooler
  with 15-30% chances for precipitation.

- Details regarding the weekend system remain uncertain, but
  rain appears more probable than snow at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Highly amplified pattern in place per afternoon water vapor
imagery thanks to impressively deep (500mb heights near -4
standard deviations) trough extending from the Great Lakes
through the Ohio R Valley all the way down into Florida. This
trough has gotten the lake effect snow machine going and is
causing widespread Freeze Warnings across the Deep South...all
the way down to the Gulf Coast. On the flip side, a strong upper
ridge can be seen anchored over the Desert SW. Locally, we`re
caught in between the departing trough and advancing ridge and
are left with strong meridional upper flow. At the surface, the
center of the strong high pressure that brought AM lows in the
single digits to teens is gradually shifting E/SE into the MS
Valley, allowing for return Srly flow to become established
over the Plains. We haven`t really seen the Srly flow improve
temps a whole lot today as much of this air is recycled polar
air, and copious cirrus is streaming overhead from the crest of
the upper ridge leading to heavily filtered sunshine.

The eastern trough will remain progressive tonight and allow for
deamplifying long wave pattern and a return to more zonal/NW
upper flow locally. A fast-moving shortwave will move through
and turn winds from S to NW for Tuesday, but expect temps to
actually jump significantly thanks to stronger mixing of a
largely Pacific airmass that has had some
downsloping/modification. Less cloud cover will also help. As
such, model guidance remains in good agreement that the entire
forecast area will warm in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A
significant jump from today that will be aided by warmer morning
temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s. It will be on the breezy
side, esp. by afternoon and for areas N of I-80 where gusts up
to around 25-30 MPH will be possible. Will need to keep an eye
on hourly wind/RH trends as there could be enough overlap to
cause some near- critical fire wx for a time in our far W/SW
zones. Here, RHs are likely to fall into at least the lower 20s.
Fortunately,forecast sounds suggest gusts should be lighter
than further N and only around 20 MPH. Something to monitor.

The rest of the week looks incredibly quiet and warm/mild, with
no real signs of a particularly breezy/windy/dry day for fire
weather concerns...or for a stronger shortwave and any sneaky
low-end precip chances. Instead, it looks like we`ll be left
with a few very nice days featuring highs in the 60s to lower
70s, light winds, and copious sunshine. Of the three days Wed-
Fri, Fri could be the warmest...but might also have more cloud
cover to contend with ahead of our next cold front.

Model guidance remains in decent agreement in bringing our next
cold front into the region on Saturday, but confidence in
exactly HOW this happens in terms of timing, placement, and just
overall configuration of upper troughs, is still quite low. If
anything, there has been a trend towards splitting the strongest
disturbances around the local area...one to the NE, and a
slower and potentially stronger one to the SW/S that may not
come out until Sun or early the following week. If this trend
persists, then our current 15-30ish PoPs would probably only
remain steady or even decrease as we`d have the cold frontal
passage, but not a lot in the way of deep moisture/lift. Still
several days away, but regardless of precipitation chances,
confidence is HIGH that the really unseasonably warm weather
will come to an and over the weekend and temperatures will fall
back into the 50s to around 60F - which is actually still pretty
mild for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some
passing high clouds and winds being the primary focus.

Steady southerly winds this evening will continue into the
overnight hours as a warm front continues to push east across
central Nebraska over the next few hours. Ahead of this front,
could see a few hours of LLWS as indicated in model data, but
thus far, the VWP is not indicating anything of significance
(albeit this could be from a lack of scatterers). As a
result...maintained some marginal LLWS through 11/12Z...when the
LLJ should shift east and dissipate as surface winds shift more
westerly behind the warm front. Winds will again increase
during the midday hours as mixing to near 850mb is
realized...with a few gusts to near 20 KTS possible by
afternoon. Overall...skies will be variably cloudy, but CIGS
should remain AOB 25KFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...SR