480
FXUS63 KGID 022205
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
405 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moves through tonight and brings cold and blustery
  conditions for Wednesday, along with some flurries.

- Seasonably strong high pressure center will move nearly
  overhead Wednesday night, leading to very cold temperatures in
  the single digits above and below zero Thursday morning.

- Rest of the forecast will feature NW upper flow, which
  encourages wide oscillations in temperatures from day to day,
  along with quick-hitting systems that bring limited moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Have had a mix of sun and high clouds today, which combined with
the variance in snow depth, has led to a wide range in
temperatures this afternoon. Southwestern areas have seen more
sunshine and melted what little snow there was, which has
allowed highs to jump into the lower 50s on steady SW breezes.
However, the NE half of the forecast area has been under more
persistent high clouds and "deeper" snowcover, leaving temps
only on the mid 30s to mid 40s - lowest along the Hwy 81
corridor where snow depth remains highest. Will continue to see
high clouds stream into the area this evening, but otherwise,
expect a quiet evening with seasonable temps.

Later tonight, another Arctic cold front will blast through the
forecast area from N to S - generally in the 06Z-12Z time frame.
This front will bring another surge of cold air to the region
for Wednesday, along with blustery Nrly winds gusting around
20-30 MPH. Will likely also see some areas of flurries off and
on behind the frontal passage until around midday. Shouldn`t
take much to squeeze out some flakes given the strong cold air
advection, steep boundary layer lapse rates, and LCLs/stratus
deck temps near or within favored dendritic growth temps of -12C
to -18C. The magnitude of the CAA will tend to stymie the
diurnal temp curve, so will likely see steady or even falling
temperatures by early afternoon for all but perhaps our southern
tier of KS counties. Falling temps and blustery N winds will
cause wind chills only in the single digits to teens for
Nebraska counties by mid-afternoon, and teens-lower 20s in KS.

A seasonably strong high pressure center - nearing around +2
standard deviations for early December - will move down the
Missouri River Wednesday night. The timing and track of the high
pressure center will likely spare our forecast area from a total
bottoming out of temps like further E (double digits below zero
likely E NE into IA!), but it`ll still be quite cold with Thu AM
lows falling into the single digits. Areas along Hwy 81 with the
deeper snow cover and slower onset of return Srly flow may even
fall a few degrees below zero. Expect just enough of a breeze to
cause wind chills to remain below zero for most of the area
through the AM bus stop Thu AM.

The rest of the forecast looks to feature variable temperatures
and a couple low-end chances for light precipitation under fast NW
upper flow. Multiple systems will swing through the region in
the Day 3-7 portion of the forecast, but it appears we`ll be
favored to remain mostly on the drier, SW side of the systems
with not a lot of deep moisture to work with. Short of a
significant southwestward shift in the primary storm track/"wave
train", even if we do get in on some of the precipitation, it`ll
be on the light side and tend to favor our northeast zones most.
These waves are notoriously difficult to time out more than
24-48 hours in advance, but just know there will be a "train" of
weak upper disturbances from the Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley
essentially each day later this week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will fluctuate accordingly (mild ahead of a
wave/front, cooler behind it) with overall specifics also
depending on timing. Per the 12Z EPS, appears Sunday is the most
likely period for a drop in temps in what otherwise should be a
gradually warming period with gradually melting snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions rest of today and this evening with just some
high clouds and steady SW to WSW wind around 10kt.

Changes come late tonight as a cold front moves over the
terminals in the 08-10Z time frame. Winds will shift to the NW
and increase, and CIGs will lower to at least MVFR conditions
with the passage of the front. Expect some off and on flurries
much of the morning in the strong cold air advection. Latest NBM
gives 25-35% chance for IFR CIGs within the first few hours of
the frontal passage, so have added a PROB30 to account for this
since I already had the -SN going in the prevailing group.
Winds Wed AM will become breezy out of the NNW-N at 10-14kt,
gusting around 18-24kt. Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies