100
FXUS63 KGID 160526
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm for about another 24 hours and also on the
  windy side. Gusts as high as 35-40 MPH possible on Thursday.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances enter far W portions
  of the forecast area (W of Hwy 283) Thursday afternoon, then
  slowly shift E with time Thursday evening. Activity gradually
  dissipates Thursday night.

- Generally cooler late week and into the weekend with highs in
  the 60s and 70s. A cold front will bring strong NW winds on
  Saturday, gusting as high as 40-45 MPH.

- With the cooler airmass, many areas could be facing their
  highest potential for frost thus far this season Saturday
  night into Sunday AM with lows in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were slow to dissipate
and/or shift NE this morning, but the afternoon has turned drier
and much warmer/windier. In fact, areas along and S of the state
line have climbed well into the low to mid 80s - quite warm for
mid October! Breezy conditions will continue overnight, which
will help to keep low temperatures very mild, as well, in the
60s. The warm start to the day will be a launching pad for temps
to remain unseasonably warm for most of the area Thursday
afternoon, with highs once again in the 70s to lower 80s.
Increasing mid to high clouds could put a lid on the higher end
of our potential, but still very warm for this time of year.

Changes will begin to take shape in our far W areas - mainly W
of Hwy 283 - by late morning as a cold front edges SEward and
iso-scat showers and thunderstorms develop along and ahead of
it. This will be a very slow moving front during the daytime
hours and suspect much of the initial development to be elevated
in nature. So not expecting anything terribly strong through
early afternoon, and whatever develops out to the W in the AM
will only make very slow/little progress eastward during the
afternoon...perhaps to as far E as Hwy 183 by 21Z. Overall
highest chances for rain and storms will be from around 21Z to
06Z, and mainly for areas from around the Tri-Cities, N & W.
Activity will tend to dissipate with time and E/SE progression
Thu night, so areas like Beloit and Hebron may not see much at
all. We`re barely clipped by the Marginal Risk for severe
weather on the latest SPC Day 2 Outlook, and this placement
seems reasonable given at least some overlap of modest
instability and strong shear. Some efficient rainfall (thanks
to connection to sub-tropical moisture from the Baja region as
seen on WV & GOES TPW imagery) and training cells could result
in narrow swaths of 1-2" of rain over our far W, but most who do
see rain should be less than a half inch.

Cooler, though still seasonably mild, air will filter in behind
the front for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Highs should reach the 70s on Friday with fairly light winds -
so a very nice day! Saturday will be noticeably less pleasant
due to a cold front, cooler temperatures, and strong NW winds
gusting as high as 35 to 45 MPH.

The cooler airmass will bring our first significant chance for
frost to at least the NW half of the forecast area Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Areas along and NW of a line from
Phillipsburg to Columbus (including the Tri-Cities) have the
best potential to see lows dip into the 34-37 degree range.
Lexington to Ord may even push 31-34. Have added this potential
to the HWO.

Relatively quiet and seasonable conditions are favored Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

LLWS will continue through the mid-morning hours on Thursday.
Southerly winds of 15-20kts, gusting around 30kts are expected
during the late morning-afternoon hours on Thursday. Winds
gradually decrease Thursday evening, with winds falling below
10kts near the end of the TAF period as a front approaches
KGRI/KEAR.

Scattered showers are possible near the front Thursday
evening/night, impacting KEAR before KGRI. Sub-VFR conditions
are possible in showers, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
for the TAF period.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis