390
FXUS63 KGID 202350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of patchy dense fog possible after midnight
  tonight. The focus of this fog should be across our south
  central Nebraska counties.

- The first significant rainfall event since late October will
  spread north across the local area this evening/overnight.
  Most areas will see some rainfall, but the focus will be south
  of I-80 with the highest totals anticipated across north
  central Kansas.

- Fantastic late fall weather anticipated for this weekend with
  highs in the 60s, light winds, and mostly sunny skies
  (especially Saturday).

- The next system will bring a chance of precip back to the
  area Sunday evening through Monday, with the beginning of a
  prolonged period of below normal temperatures starting
  Thanksgiving eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where
persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures
down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the
extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially
obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest,
the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding,
which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once
the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus
to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some
patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night.
Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some
dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our
Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon
HWO.

For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover
spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level
low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift
northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading
precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of
this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were
advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get
some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus
remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards
I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with
precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the
Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If
this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant
rainfall in almost a month across much of the area!

In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for
Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the
lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived,
however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly
sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back
above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend.

Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out
of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the
area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light
rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything,
this system has continued to track just a bit further north,
meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the
most favored areas will be across our south and east.

After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall
pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a
northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting
up across the plains for potentially an extended period of
time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble
members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early
as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: LIFR CIGs likely all night. VSBYs are more uncertain,
but are expected to fall to at least MVFR, if not IFR, after
03Z. Have PROB30s for rain beginning around 09Z, but probably
going to be closer to 12Z before steadier rain arrives. Winds
will be NE to NNE 7-11kt. Confidence: Medium to high.

Friday: Will start off the day with continued LIFR CIGs and
MVFR/IFR VSBYs in areas of light rain showers. Probably not
going to see much, if any, improvement until midday or early
afternoon when the rain ends. Could go back to MVFR or even VFR
if the stratus clears out sometime late afternoon or early
evening. Winds will remain out of the NNE to NW on Friday at
around 6-10kt. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies