


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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100 FXUS63 KGID 160526 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm for about another 24 hours and also on the windy side. Gusts as high as 35-40 MPH possible on Thursday. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances enter far W portions of the forecast area (W of Hwy 283) Thursday afternoon, then slowly shift E with time Thursday evening. Activity gradually dissipates Thursday night. - Generally cooler late week and into the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will bring strong NW winds on Saturday, gusting as high as 40-45 MPH. - With the cooler airmass, many areas could be facing their highest potential for frost thus far this season Saturday night into Sunday AM with lows in the low to mid 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms were slow to dissipate and/or shift NE this morning, but the afternoon has turned drier and much warmer/windier. In fact, areas along and S of the state line have climbed well into the low to mid 80s - quite warm for mid October! Breezy conditions will continue overnight, which will help to keep low temperatures very mild, as well, in the 60s. The warm start to the day will be a launching pad for temps to remain unseasonably warm for most of the area Thursday afternoon, with highs once again in the 70s to lower 80s. Increasing mid to high clouds could put a lid on the higher end of our potential, but still very warm for this time of year. Changes will begin to take shape in our far W areas - mainly W of Hwy 283 - by late morning as a cold front edges SEward and iso-scat showers and thunderstorms develop along and ahead of it. This will be a very slow moving front during the daytime hours and suspect much of the initial development to be elevated in nature. So not expecting anything terribly strong through early afternoon, and whatever develops out to the W in the AM will only make very slow/little progress eastward during the afternoon...perhaps to as far E as Hwy 183 by 21Z. Overall highest chances for rain and storms will be from around 21Z to 06Z, and mainly for areas from around the Tri-Cities, N & W. Activity will tend to dissipate with time and E/SE progression Thu night, so areas like Beloit and Hebron may not see much at all. We`re barely clipped by the Marginal Risk for severe weather on the latest SPC Day 2 Outlook, and this placement seems reasonable given at least some overlap of modest instability and strong shear. Some efficient rainfall (thanks to connection to sub-tropical moisture from the Baja region as seen on WV & GOES TPW imagery) and training cells could result in narrow swaths of 1-2" of rain over our far W, but most who do see rain should be less than a half inch. Cooler, though still seasonably mild, air will filter in behind the front for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Highs should reach the 70s on Friday with fairly light winds - so a very nice day! Saturday will be noticeably less pleasant due to a cold front, cooler temperatures, and strong NW winds gusting as high as 35 to 45 MPH. The cooler airmass will bring our first significant chance for frost to at least the NW half of the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Areas along and NW of a line from Phillipsburg to Columbus (including the Tri-Cities) have the best potential to see lows dip into the 34-37 degree range. Lexington to Ord may even push 31-34. Have added this potential to the HWO. Relatively quiet and seasonable conditions are favored Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: LLWS will continue through the mid-morning hours on Thursday. Southerly winds of 15-20kts, gusting around 30kts are expected during the late morning-afternoon hours on Thursday. Winds gradually decrease Thursday evening, with winds falling below 10kts near the end of the TAF period as a front approaches KGRI/KEAR. Scattered showers are possible near the front Thursday evening/night, impacting KEAR before KGRI. Sub-VFR conditions are possible in showers, otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Davis