245
FXUS65 KGJT 200459
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
959 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 4 to 8 inches of snow across the San Juans is expected through
  Friday morning, with locally higher amounts.

- Snow will spread across the Central and Northern mountains
  Thursday afternoon with widespread accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches by Friday evening.

- Temperatures hover around normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

A deep fetch of moisture continues to stream into the Southwest this
afternoon ahead of an open wave moving through the Great Basin.
Widespread convection across AZ tells me we`ve put some of the drier
conditions away for the time being. Moisture on the Grand Junction
sounding this morning held steady, along with stacked southwesterly
flow up the column. PWAT values will continue to rise upward this
evening and tomorrow across the region. A broad area of cutoff
cyclonic flow over the Great Basin continues to send a series of
waves across the region through Friday, keeping a persistent
moisture tap in place into Friday morning.

Generous upslope flow this evening ahead of the first wave will
bring some light snow to the mountains of southwest Colorado and
southeast Utah, primarily above 9000 feet tonight. Snow levels work
downward  by Thursday morning, but struggle to get below 8000 feet
in the warm air mass. Kept our Winter Weather Advisory starting at
11pm tonight, as we will start seeing some of the best snowfall on
the San Juans by daybreak. Travelers in the 550 and 145 corridors
will want to take note of the winter conditions on the passes
tonight and tomorrow morning. While not in the Winter Weather
Advisory, Dallas Divide will see wintry conditions Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning. Shortwaves will continue to
pinwheel around the main circulation Thursday, spreading
additional snowfall northward over the Grand Mesa, Central
Mountains, and up to the Flat Tops and Park Range. The richest
snowfall will remain around 10,000 feet, as the cutoff flow
struggles to entrain any appreciable cold air into this system.
North of the San Juans, snow totals hover around 3-6 inches
across most of our major mountain groups. Held off on any
additional advisories, as coverage of advisory level snow just
wasn`t there.

High pressure begins to nose into the Northwest on Friday, thereby
pinching another cutoff low over Baja California. Drier, subsident
flow will curb snowfall on the San Juans early Friday morning,
allowing for the winter weather advisory to end. Remnant moisture
and orographics will keep some light snow falling across the
remainder of our mountains on Friday. Light snowfall rates will keep
accumulations in check, but the lion`s share of this storm in our
Central and Northern Mountains will fall Thursday evening into
Friday morning. Travel impacts on Vail Pass are likely Friday
morning. Snow tapers quickly by Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

A deep closed low will drop into SoCal and the northern Baja by
Friday night and separate from the main upper level trough, leaving
a deformation (col) area overhead across our CWA. We will still see
some lingering shower activity mainly across the northern and
central mountains but rates should lessen considerably with
subsidence overhead. Saturday is expected to be a relatively quiet
day in terms of weather underneath this area of deformation as the
closed low tracks into Arizona. Models begin to differ beyond
Saturday and are struggling to resolve the details of the timing and
track of this low. It`s the track that will make all the difference
in how much precipitation we see if any.

Confidence in timing and coverage is low as there are discrepancies
between models and run to run inconsistencies. The blended guidance
at this time tends to favor a more southerly solution, leaning
towards the GFS which favors southwest Colorado for precipitation
Saturday night through Sunday night with San Juan mountains favored
for better snowfall accumulations. At this time, forecasted snowfall
amounts are meager but this could very well be due to the
inconsistency and uncertainty as yesterday, the models were showing
this system completely missing us. If a more northerly track is
taken like the ECMWF is indicating, this would result in more
widespread precipitation coverage and better mountain snowfall
accumulations with precip lingering through Monday. Would like to
see better consistency before discussing details regarding
forecasted mountain snowfall and impact potential. Temperatures
through the period will be near to slightly above seasonable but of
course the temperature forecast is all dependent on the track of the
low and resultant cloud and precipitation coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 957 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

Showers and low to mid level clouds will persist through the
period. A round of rain and snow showers will impact terminals
along and south of I-70 over the next 3-6 hours, with
reinforcing rounds of rain arriving from the south. These
showers will work their way north after 12z, impacting KVEL and
KHDN by that point. KASE, KRIL, and KEGE will spend much of the
next 24 hours at or below ILS breakpoints, and low ceilings will
allow for other terminals to reach breakpoints as well. VFR
conditions will prevail, but periods of MVFR to IFR will be
possible, particularly for KASE and KTEX. Winds will be
generally light and variable.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Thursday for COZ019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT