365
FXUS65 KGJT 011116
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure builds in today, bringing drier conditions and
  temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.

- Breezy southwesterly winds and temperatures around 10 degrees
  above normal settle in for Thursday and Friday.

- A low pressure system moves through Friday night into
  Saturday, bringing cooler and wetter conditions with more
  widespread wetting rain with some light mountain snow, before
  conditions dry out again early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A few light showers and low level clouds have managed to linger
through the night, which has helped keep temperatures a bit more
mild. Skies will clear over the next several hours as the shortwave
trough swings east of the Divide and ridging builds in. Temperatures
will climb another degree or two over yesterday, with highs expected
to be around 5 degrees above climatology for early October. Winds
will be lighter as well. All in all, an excellent fall day. A quiet
and seasonal night will follow.

The ridge continues to build in over the region tomorrow, with the
axis just to our east, oriented along a line roughly from New Mexico
to Nebraska. At the same time a trough will be strengthening along
the West Coast. Eastern Utah and western Colorado will be right in
between these two features, with the resulting pressure gradient
tightening up aloft. This will result in stronger winds aloft that
will mix down to the surface during the afternoon, with gusts of 25-
35 mph expected across the region. This southwesterly flow will also
bring a drier and much warmer airmass along with it, with highs on
Thursday jumping to around 10 degrees above normal under sunny
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Warm temperatures and breezy southwesterly winds will continue into
Friday, with highs remaining around 10 degrees above early October
climatology. Most of the area will remain dry, but some weak POP
returns to the terrain of the Uintas and San Juans on Friday
afternoon. This will be more isolated in nature before the best push
of PWAT arrives Friday evening and early Saturday. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms continue Friday night into Saturday as the
front arrives early Saturday morning. This will keep afternoon highs
suppressed and bring snow levels down to around 10000 feet. Mountain
travelers, hunters, climbers, and leaf peepers are advised to stay
abreast of local forecasts on Friday/Saturday as the front rolls
through the region. Significant snow accumulations are not expected,
but cold and wet conditions are likely to take the fun out of
outdoor activity. Afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday will trend
around 15 degrees colder than Friday. Showers will linger north of I-
70 Sunday, along with the San Juans and Uncompahgre Plateau.
Southwesterly flow returns quickly in the progressive pattern that
models are keen to. This will warm things back up on Monday and
Tuesday to near normal conditions. Models keep the wave train
rolling early next week, bringing some additional precipitation to
the mountains Monday and Tuesday, as another digging low over the
Great Basin sends additional Pacific moisture across the Four
Corners.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Some remnant mid level clouds and a few light showers are still
lingering over northern portions of the area and along the
Colorado Divide. This should clear out by 18z, with clear skies
dominating for the rest of the period. Winds will be generally
light and terrain driven today. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT