283
FXUS65 KGJT 240452
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
952 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is expected to continue this evening over the central and
  southern mountains before tapering off overnight. A Winter
  Weather Advisory remains in effect for the San Juans through
  midnight tonight.

- Cooler and drier conditions move in for much of the week
  ahead.

- A stronger weather system could impact holiday travel across
  the Intermountain West next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers continue across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado
this evening before tapering off around midnight. The northern
slopes of the San Juans have the highest potential for an
additional 4-6" of snowfall. Much of the remaining snowfall is
expected in the mountains above 9,000 feet, but we are starting
to see some convective cells developing along the Colorado/New
Mexico border. These cells may be capable of bringing snow to
the valleys if the lapse rates are steep enough. A lightning
strike or two cannot be ruled out as well. All in all, the
forecast remains on track and the Winter Weather Advisory for
the San Juans above 9,000 feet remains in effect through
midnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A cold front sweeps through area on Monday leaving west-
northwest flow in place on Tuesday. Limited moisture along with
steep lapse rate will result in snow showers for the northern
mountains especially in the morning hours. A few inches are
possible in the highest elevations. High temperatures drop 5-10
degrees along and north of I-70 compared to Monday due to the
front. Northwest flow remains in place through the end of the
week. There is a plume of moisture that advects in from the
Pacific Northwest, which could support isolated snow showers in
the northern mountains at times. Otherwise most locations stay
dry through the week.

A potentially strong storm may be in the works for next
weekend, but the models vary widely on strength and timing so
confidence is low. The ensembles are are in fair agreement of
troughing across the western CONUS, which supports active
weather. Stay tuned for more details since this could impact
holiday travel next weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 940 PM
MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Precipitation has mostly come to an end across the region, with
the exception of a few lingering mountain snow showers. Most of
the cloud coverage is moving out of the region as well, but
overnight some low stratus and or fog may cause TAF site impacts
at KTEX, KDRO, and potentially at other sites that received
precipitation. Mid and high level clouds look to move into the
northern half of the CWA this morning. Winds are expected to be
light.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ018-
     019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT