943
FXUS65 KGJT 071204
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
504 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather continues through the coming work week in
  the northern Colorado mountains with mostly periods of light
  snow showers.

- A general warming trend is expected, but the snow covered
  mountains valleys will see cold inversions set up overnight
  lasting through the days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Snow is tapering off in the northern Colorado mountains with
only light showers and little accumulation expected for the
next few hours. Allowed the Winter Storm Warning for Zone 4 expire
at 5AM this morning. Note, even though snow is ending, mountain roads
in the area will remain icy and snowpacked. Slow down and allow
extra time for traveling in the mountains today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Snow showers are still hanging on over the northern Colorado
mountains with most of the activity to the south ended due to
subsidence as a weak transient ridge moves across the region.
Residual moisture and orographic lift will be enough to support a few
light showers with little accumulation through the day over the Park
Range. Another surge of moisture pushes into northern Colorado with
a weak disturbance bringing more snow showers to the Park and Gore
Ranges that may pick up four to eight inches new snow on the higher
peaks while the Elkhead and Flat Tops will only see an inch or two.

Temperatures today will run near normal down south to about five
degrees above normal in the lower elevations while the higher
terrain will see temperatures about ten degrees below normal in the
continued cold northwesterly flow. Look for temperatures to warm a
few degrees tomorrow as the high pressure to the southwest expends
farther east into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

The pattern for much of next week includes blocking highs over
the the high latitudes over the Bering Sea and off/over the
California coast. This keep a strong jet aimed at the
PacNW/British Columbia coastlines that dips into a persistent
downstream trough over the eastern CONUS. This means Northwest
flow remain in place across the Northern Rockies which
occasionally brushes our northern CWA as it oscillates as
stronger waves pass through the flow. The highlight will be a
strong AR arriving to the PacNW by tomorrow which lingers well
into Thursday with a few pulses of very high IVT moisture that
will be transported well inland. The northern and at times
central mountains will be under a persistent threat of
precipitation. A warmer airmass will be in place and this high
IVT airmass means low SLR and Sierra cement/high rime snow
instead of champagne powder. At the moment the blended model
forecast is producing 2-3 inches of liquid precipitation across
the spine of the northern Colorado mountains through Thursday.
Winds don`t look to be quite as strong as this past system so
less fracturing of the dendrite should occur and with 10:1 ratio
on average we could see another 2 feet of snow by late week.
With this falling through the week not sure how winter headlines
will be working out but the messaging is likely to be
persistent light to moderate snow will be possible across the
the northern and central mountains through the week. The highest
QPF period looks to be Tuesday night into Thursday morning so
this will be the period to keep in focus. Again this airmass
will support higher than normal snow levels meaning a mix of
rain and snow for the valleys and a very challenging snow
forecast for many areas below the high peaks. Temperatures look
to stay above to well above normal through the week...with areas
outside of Northwest Colorado and the high Uintas staying dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

LIFR ceilings with some fog at KEGE will continue through about
14Z before improving. Lower clouds in the mountain valleys with
periods of ceilings below ILS breakpoints at KASE, KEGE and
KRIL will continue through about 16Z before scattering out.
Otherwise expect VFR with generally light west to northwest
winds through about 06Z after which lower clouds and snow
showers start moving into the northern Colorado mountains with
impacts likely at KHDN by 12Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DB
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...DB