134
FXUS63 KGLD 142312
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a shower or storm tonight for counties along the
  Colorado border.

- Wednesday is forecast to be windy with speeds around 15-35 mph
  and wind gusts up to 60 mph. The higher speeds are forecast to
  favor the western half of the area. A few showers and storms
  are also possible. There is a very low chance for a severe
  storm late in the day.

- Thursday, breezy winds are forecast with gusts up to 45 mph. A
  severe storm or two is possible during the afternoon/evening
  hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main
  threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Observations around the noon hour showed fog dissipating and cloud
cover beginning to break apart for counties along the Colorado
border. This should allow counties along and west of Highway 83 to
clear and have temperatures reach the 70s. The rest of the area to
the east may stay in the 60s with cloud cover lingering until the
late afternoon and evening hours. With the skies clearing, there is
the chance that some small amounts of instability develop over
Eastern Colorado and nearby counties. With a weak convergence zone
from the front, upslope flow, and potentially another shot of mid-
level moisture moving through in the upper southwest flow, a storm
or two could form and move through western portions of the area. The
storms should be sub-severe if the form, with little instability to
work with. A wind gusts to 60-70 mph would be the main threat if the
storm did go severe with strong flow of 50 kts around or below
500mb.

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to shift more east and closer
to the area, also shifting the surface low a bit more east. This
should cause the winds to remain elevated around 10-20 mph with the
pressure gradient remaining setup over the area. Skies are forecast
to start partly cloud, but then become mostly cloudy with more mid-
level moisture trying to move over. This could lead to a shower or
two over Northwest Kansas, but nothing widespread or heavy is
expected at this time. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50s.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to shift more east and north
over Utah. As it does so, the surface low is also forecast to push
more to the east and north while also deepening. As the low deepens,
it should tighten the pressure gradient and help winds increase to
around 20-35 mph with the stronger winds favoring the western
portions of the area. With the upper trough tightening the height
gradients, winds are forecast to strengthen to 35-55 kts between 700-
500mb. If we are able to mix out tomorrow, then some wind gusts to
60 mph are possible. A potential inhibitor for this is the continued
stream of moisture from 850-500mb. While not spatially congruent,
parts of the air may be saturated enough to take advantage of the
lift provided by the surface low and the upper trough to form
showers/storms during the morning hours. If the showers and storms
move through, it may keep a capping inversion in place over the
western parts of the area and inhibit how much we can mix. In this
scenario, wind gusts would be more likely to cap out around 50 mph,
with 30-40 mph further east. Given that we have been a bit more on
the moist side, am currently leaning towards this solution. This
would also limit the blowing dust threat as lapse rates and winds
near the surface would be too low to loft dust except near freshly
plowed/loosened fields. If we have clearer skies and no showers,
concerns for blowing dust would be higher as lapse rates near the
surface would increase along with surface wind speeds. That being
said, the air might over mix then and lead to more hazy skies with
no cap on the dust. The other concern is that if there are no early
showers/clouds, then the daytime heating in combination with the
surface convergence zone may allow for some storms to fire up during
the afternoon/evening. A severe storm may be possible then with wind
as the main threat, but large hail could also occur. Highs for
tomorrow should reach the 80s as there should be breaks in the
clouds and showers that allow for some sunshine during the afternoon.

Tomorrow night, the surface low is forecast to still shift slightly
more to the northeast, but while also broadening. For most of the
area, this will keep winds elevated around 15-30 mph, but with gusts
around 40 mph or less. Locales near the Tri-State border may see
winds go light if the center of the surface low can move over and
weaken the pressure gradient. A mix of clouds and clear skies is
forecast with some mid-level moisture still swinging through the
area. Lows are forecast to be in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to continue to lift northeast
with a broad surface low pressure and cold front draped across the
Plains and High Plains. This is forecast to shift winds from out of
the south to out of north during the day while keeping speeds around
15-25 mph. The chances for stronger winds look to be lower given a
broader surface pressure gradient and with the upper trough axis
swinging through the High Plains, weakening the upper level flow.
That being said, there should still be some pockets of 40 kts winds
on the leading edge of the trough which will allow for pockets of
wind gusts between 30-50 mph. On top of the winds, showers and
storms are expected as moisture builds up along the leading edge of
the front/trough as it pushes through the area. On top of the
moisture and surface forcing, winds above 500mb are forecast to
remain strong and provide diffluence to support storm development.
Instability remains forecast to be low with the cooler air and
multiple rounds of clouds and showers the prior days which is
keeping our severe chances low. However, 0-6km shear around 40-60
kts and a storm motion that favors storms moving along the frontal
boundary could allow for one or two strong thunderstorms that could
produce hail to around an inch. It also wouldn`t be impossible for
one of the storms to mix down some of the stronger winds and produce
a wind gust around 60-70 mph. Temperatures are forecast to reach the
low 80s ahead of the front (towards Central Kansas), and cap out in
the 70s towards the Tri-State border.

Friday and Saturday, are forecast to remain upper level troughing as
the upper trough is forecast to positively tilt and allow for a cut-
off low/shortwave to linger upstream until late Saturday. This is
forecast to lead to a less active pattern with lighter winds under a
broad area of surface low pressure. Temperatures should be around
average with highs near 70 and lows around 40. There could be a few
showers that move through with shortwaves, but current chances are
10% or less.

Sunday and into early next week is less clear as guidance is split
on whether another trough will quickly develop and push through the
Northern High Plains or if it will delay more into the mid part of
next week. In either case, Sunday brings about the first chance at a
freeze as the prior elongated trough finishes swinging through and
brings a colder air mass through. Lows are forecast to be in the 30s
with low 30s possible in locales along and east of Highway 27. While
guidance is currently split, currently leaning towards average to
slightly above average temperatures as the pattern we have been in
favors some ridging after a trough and a recovery of temperatures.
When the next system moves in, we will likely see more strong winds
and another organized chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Low clouds will move out of KMCK early this evening, leaving VFR
for the remainder of the TAF period at both KMCK and KGLD. Some
low level wind shear can be expected at KMCK through Wednesday
morning, but gusty surface winds at KGLD will mitigate the
shear. Both terminals will see gusty surface winds Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024