241
FXUS63 KGLD 022047
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
147 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to develop over mainly western portions
  of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday night.
  Most of the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern
  Colorado and potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.

- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
  lead to minor/nuisance travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
  to low teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Over the next few hours, the surface low over Southeast Colorado
into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. As the low slides east,
mid and low level moisture and cooler air will push south over the
Tri-State area during the late evening to overnight hours and merge
with the moisture pushing east across the Colorado Rockies. Along
with the increase in moisture, we are also looking at an area of
vorticity at the 500-700 mb level primarily along and west of the
Colorado border which will provide forcing and the potential for
flurries and light snow through Wednesday night. There is also a
cold front moving south providing additional frontogenesis after
sunrise tomorrow.

We could see flurries as early as 5-6 pm MT in Western portions of
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado with light snow moving
in between 8-10 pm MT off of the Palmer Divide. Majority of the
measurable snow is expected to be in Colorado and the neighboring
Kansas and Nebraska counties. Flurries are possible across the area
given the decent moisture profile. The peak for snowfall is
currently expected to be during the day tomorrow with snow tapering
off from north to south by 12 am MT (Midnight MT) Wednesday night.
The latest forecast has snow amounts up to 2-3" in western portions
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) counties with the remainder of those
counties and the surrounding ones looking at a trace to 1". There is
a chance that most of the snow falls west of our area over the
Palmer Divide and along the Front Range, resulting in amounts of an
1" or less for western portions of the area. The western halves of
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60% chance of
seeing an inch of snow or more. There is only a ~40% chance of
localized accumulations of an inch east of the Colorado border, and
the potential rapidly declines farther east. This snow is expected
to be powdery with snow to liquid ratios of 12-16:1. Some blowing
snow is possible late Wednesday morning to afternoon, but is not
expected to be much more than a nuisance due to the north to
northeast winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.


Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 20s thanks to the
cold air moving in overnight. With the area-wide overcast skies and
falling snow for those out west, temperatures are not expected to
warm up much for highs on Wednesday with temperatures in the low to
mid 30s. Overnight lows could fall into the teens Wednesday night
with potential for wind chills Thursday morning to be in the single
digits to low teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

The central plains will be under northwest flow this period,
downstream from a ridge axis off the western CONUS. Occasional
shortwaves coming over the ridge will bring only slight
precipitation chances, with measurable amounts of rain and/or
snow looking unlikely at this time. None of these systems are
strong enough to warrant any wind concerns and relative humidity
minimums are well above any fire weather concerns. So what
amounts to basically a temperature forecast will start off
around 10 degrees below normal on Thursday, a bit cooler in any
snow covered areas of Colorado, followed by near normal
temperatures on Friday, around 5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, near normal on Sunday behind a weak cold front, and 5
to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Normal highs are in the
upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 03z with increasing
potential for reduced flight categories at both terminals as 12Z
approaches. Strong cold front will sweep through the area
overnight with somewhat moist upslope flow developing behind it.
Potential for IFR stratus and fog to develop around 12z is
highest at KGLD and think IFR conditions will prevail for
several hours at KGLD. After initial surge in cloud cover
behind front, differential cold air advection will likely
destabilize things enough for scattered light snow showers to
develop after 15z. While these will be short lived and likely
not amount to much, if any, accumulation they may bring
intermittent periods of IFR/MVFR conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM