410
FXUS63 KGLD 272044
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
144 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
  cold frontal passage early Sat morning, strongest (30-40 G 55
  mph) between sunrise and noon Sat. A few snow showers may
  accompany the frontal passage early Sat morning (prior to
  sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 133 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Today-Tonight: Pleasant/benign weather for Thanksgiving.
Synoptic subsidence in the wake of an amplifying trough
(downstream over the eastern CONUS) and a modest upper level
ridge approaching from the west will foster light winds, near-
average temps and mostly clear skies.. aside from occasional
bouts of cirrus in NW flow aloft.

Friday: An upper level wave moving ashore the Pacific Northwest
(today) will progress east toward the northern Rockies
(tonight), then abruptly dig SSE toward the central Rockies
(Fri) -- after an interaction with shortwave energy progressing
rapidly S-SSE through British Columbia/Alberta -- fostering the
development of a broad lee cyclone in CO. Southerly low-level
flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the developing
cyclone will foster a modest warming trend with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, coolest in eastern / lower elevation
portions of the area where a shallow cooler airmass will persist
into the afternoon and low ceilings/stratus may develop beneath
pervasive upper level cloud cover / cirrus.

Friday night-Sat night: Guidance continues to indicate that the
aforementioned upper wave will dig SSE to/near the OK Panhandle
(Fri night).. then rapidly progress east (broad lee cyclone, in
tow) across the Central/Southern Plains on Sat. The progressive
nature of the cyclone and the Tri-State area`s position
relative to the upper wave and cyclone suggests a low overall
potential for precipitation in the NWS Goodland county warning
area. Guidance presently suggests 2 distinct periods in which
light precipitation could develop: [1] light rain prior to the
cold frontal passage Friday evening (~00-06Z Sat) -- as the
upper level wave digs SSE through WY-CO, most likely near the
Tri-State border area and [2] snow/showers coincident with the
cold frontal passage around or shortly before sunrise (~09-12Z)
Saturday -- during a fleeting period of strong low-level
frontogenesis, mainly in southwest NE and adjacent KS border
counties. From a hazardous weather standpoint, strong northerly
winds in the wake of the front are/remain the primary concern.
Strong cold advection and abrupt pressure rises in the wake of
the Arctic front will at least partially coincide with diurnal
heating.. between sunrise and noon Saturday.. when forecast
soundings indicate ~35-45 knot northerly low-level flow will be
present within a shallow (surface to 3,000 ft AGL) mixed layer.
If this is the case, one would expect sustained winds ~30-40 mph
and gusts up to ~55 mph. From a prior experience standpoint, in
the context of an abrupt Arctic cold frontal passage, guidance
generally tends to under-do wind.. at onset, in particular.
Either way, guidance indicates that northerly winds will weaken
during the afternoon and rapidly diminish after sunset Saturday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential
for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave
traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains
late Sun into Mon. At this range, confidence in precipitation
coverage, location and amounts cannot be ascertained with much
confidence. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the
system suggests relatively low precipitation amounts (sub-
warning criteria).. and the synoptic setup/pattern suggests
light winds.

Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests a warming/moderating
trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region / drains
downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return flow
pattern ensues -- followed by a cooling trend assoc/w another
cold frontal passage mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 915 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with
cloud cover confined to the mid-upper levels (above ~8,000 ft
AGL). Light/variable winds (today) will shift to the ESE-SE and
modestly increase to ~7-13 knots this evening and overnight..
when LLWS is expected in assoc/w a 40 KT southerly low-level
jet. LLWS will end shortly after sunrise as the low-level jet
weakens and surface winds veer to the S and increase to ~13-18
knots.

MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF
period. While low stratus may develop over portions of central
Kansas and south-central Nebraska near the end of the 18Z TAF
period.. guidance continues to suggest that MVFR ceilings will
be confined E and SE of the McCook terminal. Light/variable
winds (today) will shift to the ESE-SE and modestly increase to
~6-12 knots this evening and overnight.. when LLWS is expected
in assoc/w a 40 KT southerly low-level jet. LLWS will end within
a few hours after sunrise as the low-level jet weakens and
surface winds veer to the SSE and increase to ~15-20 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent