525
FXUS63 KGLD 151112
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 5-10% chance of an isolated storm this afternoon.

- A brief warmup today and Tuesday with highs in the mid to
  upper 80s.

- Afternoon and evening storms will return to the region on
  Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather possible Tuesday.

- Highs in the 70s are expected from Wednesday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Mainly clear skies are currently present across the area with the
exception of of some mid level clouds traversing across Cheyenne and
Kit Carson counties in Colorado due to a subtle 500 mb shortwave
towards the state line where some sprinkles at best are possible as
this moves into NW Kansas through the morning hours. Am also
watching the potential for fog development over the next few hours
as well due to the clear skies, light winds and recently saturated
boundary layer due to the rain earlier. Am a little iffy on the
coverage of the fog as a surface trough is currently moving through
the area which is shifting winds to the SSW which is
climatologically inclined to preclude fog development. The highest
confidence in fog is currently across Norton, Graham, Decatur
and eastern portions of Red Willow as winds remain from the E to
ESE, some dense fog can`t be ruled out across that area as well
but should be short lived as the trough continues to move
through. Additional patchy fog is also possible down through
Cheyenne county Colorado especially near sunrise due to little
dew point depressions so will leave the fog mention that was
inherited in place.

For the rest of the day, anticipating temperatures to quickly
warm up this morning with high temperatures forecast in the mid
80s across the majority of the area. In response to the surface
trough a weak 850 mb jet is forecast to move across the area
leading to breezy sustained winds around 15-20 mph with some
gusts approaching 25 mph through the afternoon. As the trough
continues to move to the east winds will then shift to the SSE
as moisture advection returns which will also cause a re
intensification of the 850mb jet continuing the breezy winds.
Depending on the speed of the trough a weak convergence zone may
set up across eastern portions of the area which may lead to an
isolated storm to develop at this time this seems to be
unlikely (less than 5%). A slightly better potential for
isolated storm development may be from convective temperatures
being breached this afternoon as most guidance has them around
the current forecast high temperatures. If a storm were to form
do think it would be relatively short lived with wind shear
around 15-20 knots and lapse rates around 7.0 c/km which would
support a marginal severe storm at best but confidence in storms
developing in the first place is around 10% with the severe
threat less than 5%.

As mentioned above moisture advection will continue through the
night with the breezy SSE winds continuing. Will need to again keep
an eye on fog potential but the start of a surface low will begin to
increase cloud cover and the continued breezy winds will be in place
so stratus may be the most likely outcome of this.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

The active pattern will continue through the long-term. Tuesday
afternoon/evening, a potent low and cold front are projected to fire
off fairly widespread storms across the area. SPC has already thrown
out a day 3 Marginal severe weather outlook for most of the area,
accounting for the thunderstorm potential. Currently, it looks like
storms will fire near the Colorado border and move off to the east
throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Hail looks to be the
main threat so far, but we cannot rule out any threats at this
point.

Precipitation could continue Wednesday as an upper-level low moves
over the area. This will lead to cloud cover and cooler
temperatures, likely in the low to mid 70s. Generally, temperatures
look to remain in the 70s for the rest of the long term with low
cooling into the 50s with the eastern CWA potentially seeing upper
40s later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Winds for the day are forecast to be from the SSW before backing
to the SSE through the day. KMCK however for the morning hours
is being an outlier as a surface trough moves over the terminal
bringing some periods of varying wind directions. As this occurs
there may be some potential for some sunrise fog at the terminal
due to the clear skies and light winds around 05kts confidence
in MVFR or lower visibilities impacting the terminal is
currently less than 20% so will leave out of the TAF for now but
will watch very closely over the next few hours. Other than
some mid level clouds no concerns for flight category reductions
for GLD. Winds do look to become breezy once the inversion
breaks and mixing ensues with some gusts of 20-25 knots starting
as early as 15Z. Moisture advection is forecast to occur this
evening and overnight leading to continued breezy winds
especially for GLD, if the winds don`t occur then will need to
watch for LLWS. Some guidance tries to bring in stratus or fog
towards the latter part of the terminal for GLD but confidence
is currently less than 10% at this time in it occurring so will
leave out of the TAF for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg