473
FXUS63 KGLD 150737
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1237 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the weekend. Return to more seasonable as the work
  week goes on.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week with the first
  being Monday morning across northwest portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will force
a dry cold front through the area tonight. Slightly cooler
temperatures and breezy north winds will follow for Saturday.
Highs will be around 70 with winds gusting 20 to 30 mph from mid
morning through early afternoon, then diminishing. Lows
Saturday night will be in the upper 30s. Sunday will be mostly
sunny with shortwave ridging ahead of a system approaching the
southern Rockies. Highs will be in the mid 60s withe breezy
southeast winds. Models show an upper low cutting off Sunday
night, though in slightly different locations. GFS has the low,
and most of the precipitation, in northeast Colorado compared to
the ECMWF solution which brings the low into northwest Kansas
Monday morning. Either way, looks to be fairly low impact with
total QPF less than a tenth of an inch and temperatures
supporting all rain as opposed to snow. Monday will be slightly
cooler with highs ranging from the upper 50s in southwest
Nebraska where clouds linger the longest to the middle 60s in
west central Kansas where there will be more afternoon sun.
Monday night, the upper low lifts into central Nebraska with
only slight chances for any lingering wraparound precipitation
across northern areas (Kansas-Nebraska border area). Lows will
be in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Starting the extended period Monday morning a surface low is
forecast to be in place across northeast Colorado bringing the
potential for light rain across northwestern portions of the area.
Due to wet bulb zero temperatures remaining warm would be
surprised at this point if snow were to occur. GEFS-Mean spread
however still shows quite a bit of discrepancy with the
position of the low as it may end up being a bit further to the
east closer to the Tri-State border area which would make the
precipitation a bit more widespread. The chances of that
appears to be 5-10% at this time. Precipitation chances would
end late morning across the area as the low quickly broadens out
as it moves off to the west. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast
on the backside of the low. The magnitude of how breezy
continues to be worked out with the GFS showing a stronger low
which would lead to wind gusts of 40-50 mph; the NAM is weaker
with negligible winds of 10-20 mph and the ECMWF is in between.
The EC- AIFS however is interestingly similar to the GFS on
strength and positioning which does increase my confidence a
bit in the stronger winds. High temperatures for the day remain
forecast in the 60s.

A continued active pattern is forecast to continue through the
remainder of the extended period with a gradual cooling trend
to more normal temperatures. Guidance continues to show a
stronger system moving towards the area. Unfortunately tons of
spread on positioning and timing remain with ensembles. A
further north system would favor precipitation for the area
versus a more cut off low across the southern Plains would
lessen rainfall chances as the area would be more prone to being
dry slotted. Should rainfall occur with this system it would
favor Thursday into early Friday morning but currently not
seeing any potential hazards. Ensembles have fallen off of the
snowfall potential with this system as well at least for the 00z
run of the LREF. The previous runs did have snowfall potential
so will be interesting to see if this was an anomalous run or
not. Nevertheless confidence is higher in near normal
temperatures and increased cloud cover across the area.

Another system is forecast to follow later in the week in to the
weekend as well reinforcing the near normal temperatures across the
area. Even more spread is still seen ensembles with positioning
and timing.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000
ft AGL. Light WSW to W winds will veer to the WNW overnight.
Winds will shift to the NNW or N and increase to 10-15 knots in
assoc/w an effective cold frontal passage a few hours after
sunrise (~15Z Sat). At the McCook terminal.. a period of
northwesterly LLWS (~45 knots at ~1700 ft AGL) is expected
during the morning (~10-16Z Sat). LLWS is not anticipated at
the Goodland terminal. North winds may gust up to ~22 knots for
a short period after the frontal passage. Winds will weaken and
become variable by mid-afternoon (~20-21Z) and persist through
sunset. Winds will remain light (~5-10 knots) through the
remainder of the 06Z TAF period.. becoming southeasterly or
southerly by sunrise (~12Z) Sun morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent