758
FXUS63 KGLD 071721
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and some dense fog possible tonight and into
  Wednesday morning. Favored areas are generally south of
  I-70/Highway 40.

- Warm through Saturday, with high temperatures generally in the
  80s.

- Potential for breezy winds and low chances of precipitation
  over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For this afternoon, a mix of clouds and sun remains forecast with
some lower level moisture through 700mb remaining in the area. With
the area on the backside of an upper trough and higher surface
pressure over the area, no precipitation is expected this afternoon
or evening.

As we get closer to midnight and through the remainder of the night,
the lower level flow is forecast to become stronger from the south
as the higher pressure shifts east and lower pressure builds near
the Front Range. With the stronger low level flow, moisture is
forecast to advect into the area, mainly along and south of Highway
36. With the increase in moisture, there will be the possibility for
both precipitation and dense fog. The precipitation chance looks to
be similar to this morning, where showers form generally along and
south of Highway 40 where the higher concentration of moisture is
forecast to be. Isentropic analysis suggests that there should be
some lift that will allow precipitation to form, with the GFS
favoring more over Eastern Colorado and the RAP favoring more of
Western Kansas. For now, have both areas with a chance. There could
also be a few lightning strikes with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. The
remainder of the area west of Highway 83 could see dense fog develop
where showers don`t move in with semi southeasterly/upslope flow and
low dewpoint depressions around 0-3 degrees Fahrenheit. The main
inhibitors for fog could be increased cloud cover insulating
temperatures and keeping dewpoint depressions higher, and increasing
wind speeds around 10-20 mph mixing the lower atmosphere. Low
temperatures should generally be in the 40s and low 50s.

Tomorrow, some showers and dense fog may be able to linger through
the morning hours. Warming temperatures and decreasing isentropic
lift should put an end to both the fog and precipitation as the
morning goes on. While upper ridging is forecast to build over the
area, with low surface pressure expanding along the Front Range, the
shift in air mass may take most of the day and allow cloud cover to
linger. For those who see the cloud cover clear out (likely west of
Highway 25), temperatures should warm into the 70s. The rest of the
area is more likely to have temperatures max out in the 60s.
Tomorrow should also have the winds remain around 10-25 mph with the
area forecast to be between the lower and higher surface pressure.
Gusts could reach up to around 30-40 mph.

Tomorrow night, the winds are forecast to remain elevated around 10-
20 mph with gusts to 35 mph unless the center of the surface low can
move near the area and broaden, weakening the gradient. As the low
pushes in, the low level moisture should push further to the east,
though locales along and east of Highway 83 are forecast to have
enough moisture linger for either some low cloud cover, or fog.
Temperatures should drop into the 40s for counties along the
Colorado border where clear skies and lighter winds are forecast to
be. The rest of the area is more likely to remain in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Thursday and Friday are forecast to bring back high temperatures in
the 80s with upper ridging over much of the Plains. That being said,
Thursday should be a few degrees warmer than Friday as an upper
trough is forecast to swing through the Great Lakes region and help
bring a weak cold front through the area late Thursday. With the
upper ridging and relatively higher pressure over the area, chances
for precipitation are currently below 20%. Will have to keep an eye
on how much moisture moves in ahead of the next system, but guidance
currently favors higher level moisture and cloud cover.

The weekend is forecast to bring the next low pressure system into
the area as an upper trough over the Western United States pushes to
the east. While it is fairly likely that a surface low pressure
system moves through the area, when and how deep the low pressure
will be is currently in question. Ensemble 500mb spread shows a wide
spread in how quickly and how far north the upper trough moves
through, leading to a wide range of what the low pressure system and
accompanying cold front will look like. At the very least, the area
should see some increased winds and small chances for precipitation.
Most guidance does currently favor a more northerly track, which
would keep the lower level moisture away from the area and leave us
more with high level cloud cover. However, Hurricane Priscilla may
be able to move inland enough to provide some better low level
moisture that moves along the Front Range and into the area. With
the overall favoring of a northerly track, this may keep the deeper
portions of the surface low well north of the area, keeping the area
from experiencing wind gusts above 50 mph (currently 15-30% chance
from NBM). Temperatures will likely remain warm on Saturday with 80s
and maybe a few 90s, while Sunday should be cooler by at least 5-10
degrees.

Next week, ensemble guidance still shows quite a bit of variance in
how far the upper trough progresses and whether or not another
trough pushes into the Western United States. As a whole, the
troughing should help keep temperatures a bit cooler and close to
average in the 60s and 70s. Low end chances for precipitation are
also forecast, with the main limiter currently being how much
moisture remains in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the first 12
hours. After 06Z, there is the possibility for both showers and
dense fog. While both are currently forecast to be a 20% chance
or lower, keep an eye out for changing conditions. Best chance
is around 12-16Z. The main inhibitor for the precipitation is
the forcing is forecast to be further south. The main inhibitor
for the fog is the increase in winds that are forecast. Winds
should be less than 10kts from the south/southeast through 06Z.
After that, an approaching low pressure system should
strengthen the winds through the morning with speeds around 15
kts and gusts to 25-30 kts.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds may be light and variable for the first 6-9 hours, before
becoming stronger and more consistent from the south/southeast
after 00-03Z. There is the possibility that fog could develop
between 06-15Z, but winds are currently forecast to strengthen
to around 10-15 kts and mix out the fog potential. Late in the
morning, gusts around 20-30kts will be possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK