648
FXUS63 KGLD 182343
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
543 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures return to the 90s today, continually warming into
  next week as temperatures may reach the low 100s by
  Tuesday/Wednesday as heat indices approach 105 degrees.

- Fog is possible again Saturday morning mainly along and east
  of a Oberlin to Gove line.

- Chances for showers and storms continue daily into early next
  week. Strong to severe storms may be possible each day with
  Saturday looking most favorable at this time with hail and
  wind the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A surface trough is pushing through the area and ending the stratus
west to east this morning. Winds have been a bit breezier than
anticipated as a linger 850mb jet is mixing wind gusts of 20-30
mph down to the surface, this jet is forecast to weaken through
the day as well so think winds will weaken as well. More summer
like temperatures will return today as well as high
temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across the
area. A very moist airmass is in place characterized by dew
points in the 60s to 70s which will yield heat indices above 100
especially across the east where the low 70 dew points are
forecast to hold. There are also a couple areas where some
showers and storms may try to develop this afternoon and early
evening. The first is across the east, roughly Highway 23 on
east where a weak 700mb jet is in place and we are on the left
entrance region of the jet which may provide enough lift;
confidence is not overly high in that however. The other area is
across the west where a surface low is developing, this along
with Palmer Divide topological influence may be enough to
initiate some spotty convection, severe weather is not expected
in either area if storms were to form.

Tonight, moisture remains across the area as winds look to
remain around SSE around 5-15 mph across the area with the
strongest over the west. Another round of fog and perhaps
stratus is possible along and east of Highway 83 where the
highest dew points are forecast to reside along with the light.
RAP soundings near Hill CIty according to the RAP show show
saturated and deep low levels which should support fog so the
fog may be more of a radiational fog potential. The only caveat
to any fog will be the potential for mid and upper level clouds
streaming across which may limit the potential, with that said
will only introduce patchy wording for now.

Saturday, today`s low pressure system will keep moisture in
place throughout the day but do think that any fog or potential
stratus should dissipate as we are not undergoing much if at all
of an air mass change. Cirrus is forecast to continue streaming
into the area which may help temper highs a bit but highs in
the 90s remain forecast. Through the afternoon a weak Colorado
low and additional vorticity maxes off of the Rockies look to be
the sources for initiation across the east around 3-4pm MT.
There is a scenario where today`s low is also still in close
enough proximity that storms may form around 2-4pm CT across
Rawlins, Decatur, Thomas and Sheridan counties. Overall concern
for an all hazards day has decreased as the signal for the warm
front has shifted north. Any storms that develop tomorrow will
be capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds. 12Z
run of the HRRR is the least aggressive with the strength of
the storms having them be more of a nuisance type as it has the
Colorado low a bit further to the east which brings lower dew
points into the western portions of the area. This may be
something to keep an eye on as the event draws nearer however as
the HRRR does have a dry and over mixing bias which looking at
the more moist NAM soundings does show dew points of 9C at the
top of an inverted v sounding. Just something to be aware of as
the better synoptic forcing lies in Nebraska. So overall the
higher the dew points to the west should dictate how impactful
of day may be in store. The NAM also indicates a shortwave
moving to the SE off of the Cheyenne Ridge after 00Z which also
my be another source for storms with severe potential after
sunset; the HREF also does suggest this is a possibility as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Sunday, is forecast to be synoptically similar to Saturday but
a surface high developing across the southern CONUS begins to
expand into the central Plains. This leads to me to think that
any shower and storm potential may be more isolated to scattered
in nature due to subsidence being closer to the area. Wind
shear is not as strong as Saturday either but moisture may still
be plentiful. NAM soundings show saturation from 700mb to
around 250mb so cirrus again may be in play again as well. At
this time hail initially, perhaps accumulating would be in play
along with downburst potential as we have weak flow in general.
Any storms that do form would be slow moving due to the weak
flow.

Storm potential Monday and through the middle of the week is a
little more murky at this time. The high pressure continues to
expand to the north but the main question will be how far west will
it expand. GEFS/GFS suggests the high pressure will expand back into
Colorado which would limit storm potential due to widespread
subsidence. The ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles however keep out of
Colorado and continue the monsoonal flow which would still support
storms riding up and around the high pressure. At this time I feel
the ECMWF is more plausible as its handling the forecasted
humidity the best and the monsoonal pattern may be enough to
help keep the high shunted further to the east.

Temperatures for the extended period may be the biggest story
however as a very strong signal continues to remain in place for
warm to hot temperatures. Confidence is high in temperatures in the
mid 90s to low 100s across the entire area. The difference between
this upcoming stretch of heat versus what typically occurs is that
we will have moisture in place which will keep the heat indices
around 100 with potential for 105 further to the east. The heat
doesn`t appear to be going anywhere as the high pressure looks
to be entrenched in place through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

While the probability of radiation fog continues to be low, a
few models are still holding on to it in the region of KMCK so
have left the Tempo in for the time being. Winds will calm to
less than 8kts tonight and aside from the TEMPO VFR cigs should
continue through the TAF cycle.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vaughn