249
FXUS63 KGLD 072324
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
424 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind shifts as surface and upper level troughs move through.

- Several cold fronts move through, the more noteworthy one
  being Thursday, which may bring in significantly cooler
  weather.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday for some of the forecast
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the West Coast and a
closed low over Southeast Canada.  Between the two features
northwest flow continues.  Within the flow a subtle short wave
trough was moving south through the Plains.  Flurries have been
reported with a small area of precipitation ahead of the trough.  At
the surface a trough was progressing eastward.  Behind the trough
winds were turning to the northwest.  This morning low clouds and
fog were in place ahead of the surface trough.

For the rest of today the surface trough will progress through the
forecast area.  Northwest winds will become breezy over the west
half of the forecast area during the late morning and first half of
the afternoon. These winds will become light by sunset.

Tonight winds will be light and lows will be similar to last night.

Monday another subtle upper level short wave trough will progress
through the forecast area.  Am not anticipating any precipitation
with this trough due to the large dew point depressions shown in the
soundings.  Like today, a surface trough will progress through the
forecast area turning westerly winds to the northwest.  These winds
will become breezy by late morning over East Central CO, and may
extend east to Highway 27.  Further east the winds will be too high
above ground to reach the surface.  With some warm air advection
occurring highs will be warmer than today.

Monday night westerly winds and higher dew points will cause lows to
be warmer than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday highs will be unseasonably warm ahead of the next cold front
to move through due to increased warm air advection.  Westerly winds
will be breezy over the northern half of the forecast area.

Tuesday night a pre-frontal trough moves through.  Further east an
upper level short wave trough moves through the Midwest. Behind the
surface trough winds turn to the northwest. Later in the night a
cold front moves through, turning winds to the north behind it. Due
to large dew point depressions shown in the soundings, am not
anticipating any precipitation with the frontal passage.  North
winds may become breezy if the pressure rises are fast enough behind
the front.

Wednesday laminar upper level flow moves over the forecast area. At
the surface a low pressure and trough move onto the High Plains,
turning the winds to the west or southwest.  These winds will also
bring in warmer air, thus limiting the effect of the cold front from
the prior night.  During the night a very subtle upper level short
wave trough will move over the Plains.  Precipitation chances
continue to remain mostly north of the forecast area.

Thursday the subtle upper level short wave trough continues to move
southeast over the Plains.  Meanwhile a cold front will move through
from the north.  North winds may be breezy behind the cold front in
the morning.  During the night another round of precipitation may
move into the forecast area ahead of a subtle upper level short wave
trough.  Models disagree with how far west this trough will shift
the jet stream.  The further west scenarios bring chances for
precipitation to the forecast area, though very minimal amounts.
However, northwest upper level flow is a favorable setup for narrow
bands of moderate to heavy snow to form.  Have no confidence
regarding whether this will happen for Thursday night or not at this
time range, but it is worth noting.  If this does happen, the lead
time is usually a day or less of knowing if there is a potential for
a narrow band of moderate/heavy snow to form or not.

Friday and Saturday cold air advection will continue.  The further
west the jet stream is positioned, the stronger the cold air
advection will end up being.  If this becomes a trend highs will
continue to cool in the coming days.  The 25th percentile for
highs/lows on Friday is in the 20s, with lows in the single digits,
which may end up being what happens.

Next weekend another upper level short wave trough may move through
the Plains; too far out to know where specifically it will
track.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across the outlook area over the
next 24 hours with light winds gradually become westerly. There
is a small threat (15%) for fog to develop near KMCK between 02
and 09Z before drier air moves into the area. With afternoon
cloud cover holding temperatures down, it would not be out of
the question for patchy fog to develop quickly after sunset
along Republican River valley, but think coverage will be too
limited to reduce flight categories at KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM