679
FXUS63 KGLD 112249
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
449 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds are forecast to gust up to 45-50 mph through this
  evening for most of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska.

- Some showers and maybe a storms or two are possible over the
  weekend. Overall chances are around 15-20%.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. May see breezy winds again
  around mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Observations close to the noon hour show the surface low
pressure system over Eastern Colorado. With its position,
Eastern Colorado is less likely to see wind speeds above 20 mph
and gusts above 40 mph. For Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska, winds have already increased and remain forecast to
have speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts close to 45 mph. The KGLD
wind profiler helps lend creditability to this with winds
around 35-40 kts between about 7000- 11000ft. With ample
sunshine so far, mixing does not look to be an issue. It also
looks like high temperatures across the area should be able to
reach the mid to upper 80s. Still not currently expecting any
hazards as the winds remain just a little too light for
impactful blowing dust. That being said, brown out conditions
could occur near any freshly harvested/cleared field. Even that
would be unlikely to be consistent and more patchy in nature.

For this evening, the surface low remains forecast to track
through the area and begin to lift to the north. With it over
the area, the pressure gradient should weaken a tad with winds
closer to 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Will need to watch
how quickly the low level jet develops as some sporadic 50-60
mph gusts could occur this evening if it mixes down before the
inversion sets up. Otherwise, there is a chance for a line of
showers to push through Eastern Colorado and maybe just east
past the Colorado border as a surface convergence zone moves in
with the low. Mid level moisture around 700-500mb looks to be
plentiful, but the air below 700mb remains forecast to be dry.
This should limit the shower intensity and keep accumulations on
the lower side. Temperatures should remain in the 60s and 70s
for most of the area with locales ahead of the front and winds
still 10 mph or higher. Some parts of the area near the Tri-
State border and Eastern Colorado may dip into the 50s on the
backside of the low and cold front.

Tomorrow, the low/front are now forecast to push through during
the late morning and early afternoon hours with guidance
suggesting that the upper trough will continue to push east and
north faster than originally forecast. With an earlier passage,
most of the area should see winds from the north and have drier
air move in, limiting the cloud cover over the area.
Temperatures for those behind the front by noon will likely
reach only the upper 60s and 70s. Those ahead of the front in
the afternoon will still warm into the 80s. Those ahead of the
front also will have a 10-20% chance for a few showers with some
moisture converging on the leading edge of the front. The
chances are low as the dry air near the surface will be hard to
saturate, so the showers would be spotty where better pockets of
moisture form. As for winds, the area will still see winds
remain a tad strong, but likely not as strong as today with the
low forecast to broaden along with the upper trough. This should
weaken the flow in the lower levels and keep speeds more around
15- 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Winds are forecast to subside a bit Sunday night as the low
becomes more diffuse and high pressure slowly creeps in. Speeds
should lower to around 5-15 mph. While drier air should be
pushing in at the surface, there may be a decent amount of cloud
cover as the upper level flow remains from the southwest due to
the broad troughing, and pull some mid to higher level
moisture. Even with the cloud cover though, the colder/drier air
moving in should allow most of the area to have lows in the
40s, with a few counties in the upper 30s along the Colorado
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The beginning of the week still has the area in southwest flow
aloft with a trough deepening and reforming over the Western
United States while a ridge tries to build over the Southern
United States and Gulf of America. With this pattern, the area
should see seasonable conditions with highs in the 60s on Monday
and 70s on Tuesday. There is a chance for a few showers late in
the day on Monday as southerly/southeasterly flow is forecast
in the lower levels which should bring some more moisture into
the area. We could see a better chances for storms if we get
accompanying mid-level moisture, as broad troughing aloft and
higher pressure near the surface will be unlikely to help and
limit us to showers.

Around Wednesday/Thursday, the upper trough over the west is
forecast to push east and begin to move the ridge off to the
east. Wednesday will likely see highs in the 80s due to the
ridge amplifying before being pushed, unless the lower
probability scenario of the trough moving quickly east happens.
As the trough pushes east, another low pressure system/front
will push in from the west. This will lead to a similar scenario
as this weekend with increased winds including the potential
for gusts around 50mph and a few chances for rain. Temperatures
should also cool going into the end of the week. The uncertainty
lies in the timing of the system. While most push the trough
ahead and allow for the timing listed above, there are a few
members that delay passage of the front until late Thursday. If
that is the case, then Thursday would likely see highs in the
80s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 448 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Mid-
upper level cloud cover (ceilings at-or-above ~12,000 ft AGL)
this afternoon and evening will give way to a clearing trend
overnight. SSW winds at 25-35 knots will decrease to 20-25 knots
within a few hours after sunset.. further decreasing to ~15
knots and veering to the SW overnight. Winds will abruptly shift
to the NNW-N and increase to 20-30 knots in association with a
cold frontal passage late Sunday morning (~16-18Z). After the
frontal passage, breezy N winds will persist through the
remainder of the 00Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Mid-
upper level cloud cover (ceilings at-or-above ~12,000 ft AGL)
this afternoon and evening will give way to a clearing trend
early Sunday morning. S winds at 25-35 knots will decrease to
20-30 knots within a few hours after sunset, further decreasing
to 10-20 knots and veering to the SW overnight. The presence of
a ~50 knot southerly low-level jet this evening will foster a
period of LLWS at the McCook terminal -- most likely in the
~04-09Z time frame (after surface winds weaken and before the
low-level jet shifts eastward into central NE-KS). Light SW to
WSW surface winds will abruptly shift to the NNW-N and increase
to 20-30 knots in association with a cold frontal passage late
Sunday morning (~16-18Z). After the frontal passage, breezy N
winds will persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent