807
FXUS63 KGLD 060642
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1142 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10-20% chance for a short period of light snow north of
  Highway 36 (mainly southwest Nebraska) around sunrise Saturday
  morning. No accumulation/impacts expected.

- NW winds may gust to 40-50 mph for a few hours Saturday
  afternoon.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1141 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Sat-Sat night: WNW to NW flow aloft will persist over the
region. Shortwave energy over the northern Rockies at 06 UTC
(per SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress ESE-SE
across the Northern/Central Plains today.. accompanied by a
modest surface low that will track ESE-SE from the NE Panhandle
(~12Z) to central NE (~18Z this afternoon) and Kansas City
(00-06Z this evening). High-res guidance continues to suggest a
brief potential for light precip around sunrise (~12-14Z) in
southwest Nebraska. The presence of a dry low-level airmass with
southern extent (toward the KS-NE border) may preclude
measurable precipitation in the Goodland county warning area.
While an increasingly prominent warm-nose will be present when
precipitation is possible (800 mb temps rising to 2-3C in the
~12-15Z time-frame), forecast soundings suggest that vertical
wetbulb profiles will remain at-or-below freezing (supportive of
snow). Breezy NW winds will develop early this afternoon.. as
the surface low progresses east of the Tri-State area. Winds
will weaken after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

This part of the forecast continues to be similar to the short
term; numerous small scale upper level short wave troughs moving
through over the forecast area. As each day nears there will
likely be additional short wave troughs appear in the northwest
flow over the forecast area that have not yet been resolved by
the models.

Models continue to warm Tuesday`s high temperatures. This is
ahead of a stronger upper level trough that will move through
mid week.

The most pronounced upper level short wave trough for the week
is forecast to move through mid week. The current track of this
trough keeps it mostly north of the forecast area. Current model
ensemble forecasts for precipitation keep the precipitation
north of the forecast area.

Beyond midweek there begins to be more of a difference in the
timing of the upper level short wave troughs moving through the
flow. Toward the end of the workweek the upper level ridge that
has been over the West Coast strengthens further, pushing the
jet stream further to the northeast of the forecast area. This
should allow for warmer, drier weather. With a rather strong
ridge dominating the weather pattern, a strong low pressure
system will be needed to overcome the ridge. Looking at long
range model data, a strong trough may not happen until the next
week or two. Until then the weather pattern should change very
little from what we have had.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with ceilings confined at or above ~8,000 ft AGL. WSW to
SW winds at ~10-15 knots Sat morning will shift to the NW and
increase to ~20-25 knots w/gusts to ~35 knots around noon
(~18-19Z).. breeziest during the early afternoon. Winds will
veer to the NNW and decrease to 15-25 knots by late afternoon..
further veering to the N and decreasing to 10-15 knots around,
or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

MCK: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with ceilings confined at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. W to
SW winds at ~7-12 knots (tonight and Sat morning) will increase
to 12-17 knots late Sat morning (~17Z).. then shift to the NW
and increase to ~15-20 knots w/gusts to ~30 knots during the
early afternoon (~19Z). Winds will veer to the NNW and decrease
to 10-15 knots around, or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Vincent