617
FXUS63 KGLD 031750
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to continue over mainly western
  portions of the area, lasting into Wednesday night. Most of
  the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern Colorado and
  potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.

- Patchy blowing snow today in eastern Colorado may lead to
  minor/nuisance travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
  to low teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Over the past few hours, we`ve had virga across the CWA with the
southeastern portions of the CWA likely seeing some flurries reach
the ground. The dry layer near the surface has prevented most of the
snow from reaching the ground. This dry layer is forecast to erode
over the next 12 hours, which will allow more of the snow to reach
the ground.

There are two "waves" of snow moving through the area. The first one
is being forced from pre-frontal 500mb vorticity. This wave is
responsible for the bulk of the overnight virga and stray flurries
east of the Colorado border. This wave is expected to vacate the CWA
by 12-15Z this morning.

The second wave is from the main trough cutting through the region.
This is becoming pretty disorganized system and slowing down as it
comes over the Rockies. This will lead to more prolonged, but lower
PoPs than in previous forecasts. This wave will remain largely over
the western CWA, and will lead to 1-2 inches of snowfall in the
western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. There is a 10-
20% chance of isolated pockets of 3-4 inches on the western fringes
of the CWA. Precipitation is on the CWA border as of 7Z and will
slowly spread to the east over the early morning hours. The ending
time for the snow is a big question and could end as early as 21Z
today or last until about 6-9Z Thursday morning.

Throughout most of the daylight hours, winds gusts are forecast to
be in the 15-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly
in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest.
Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than
1 mile is about 50%. Localized whiteout conditions cannot be ruled
out, but only have a ~10% chance of occurring.

With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected to stay below
freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout
the day, temperatures in the western portions of the CWA will
largely remain under freezing. It appears somewhere between the
eastern Colorado border and KS highway 27 will be the "thaw" line
today as locations to the east will see the above freezing
temperatures.

Tonight, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend from the
Northern Rockies. The speed and intensity of this high will play a
major factor as to how quickly the precipitation end. Based on
current guidance, PoPs will rapidly decline between 0-6Z, lingering
in the southwestern CWA the longest. As the night progresses, the
skies over the CWA will slowly clear out and help temperatures cool.
Once again, the speed and intensity of the high will play a major
factor into low temperatures tonight. Most likely, the northeastern
CWA will see clear skies for a couple hours, allowing temperatures
to drop into the low teens while the rest of the CWA is blanketed
with clouds, leaving temperatures in the upper teens. If the clouds
clear out quicker, more of the area will cool into the low teens,
and potentially upper single digits. Wind chills are currently
forecast to remain in the mid to upper single digits Thursday
morning, but could be near 0 if temperatures drop.

There is a low (<10%) chance of freezing fog early Thursday morning
across the eastern half of the CWA. However, it`s likely
temperatures will be too cold to support fog and instead will lead
to very light flurries.

Thursday, the remainder of the clouds will clear out of the area and
temperatures will rebound. Highs are forecast to be around 40 for
most of the CWA. The southwestern CWA is forecast to remain in the
mid 30 as recent snowfall will stunt temperatures.

Overnight Thursday night, a weak shortwave trough will likely move
over the region, but moisture is severely lacking, so additional
precipitation is not expected. Temperatures are forecast to cool to
around 20, save for the southwestern CWA. Again, recent snowfall
will keep temperatures about 5 degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest flow continues over the central plains through the
long term period. Embedded weak waves will bring occasional
chances for light snow/flurries/sprinkles, but impactful
amounts are unlikely. Operational GFS has trended a bit higher
with snow amounts Saturday and Saturday night (1" to 3" from
McCook to Norton), but GFS ensemble average shows less than half
an inch as do the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles. So will wait
and see if this is just a temporary blip from the GFS or a
trend. Precipitation amounts during the remainder of the period
are negligible. Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be near
normal, followed by a slight warming trend Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Normal highs for
the period are in the upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected over the KMCK and KGLD
terminals through the TAF period due to low ceilings from the
mostly broken to overcast skies lingering over the area.
Northeast winds will gradually become southerly by ~09Z over
both terminals and continue shifting to be out of the southwest
through the end of the period. Winds should be 5-10 kts this
afternoon through the overnight with occasional gusts to 20 kts
between 18-21Z this afternoon. Winds will increase after
sunrise with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts for the terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK