281
FXUS63 KGLD 081106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures in the 50s to 60s through mid week.
  Warmest Tuesday with widespread mid to upper 60s.

- Several cold fronts move through, the more noteworthy one
  being Thursday/Friday, which may bring in significantly
  cooler weather for Friday.

- Precipitation chances may return Thursday into Friday mainly
  for northern portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1259 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Clear skies are in place across the area with southwesterly winds in
place. Stratus remains two columns of counties to the east of the
CWA and has shown some slight westward trend with it but with
the southwesterly winds in place I have my doubts that it will
move into the area. Low dew point depression and light winds
along with the clear skies over the east may prompt some very
patchy fog through the early morning hours but think overall any
visibility reductions will remain in the 5-9SM range as drier
low level air moves into the area from the west after 09Z.

For today, a surface trough is forecast to move through the area
from the northwest which will in turn shift winds to the northwest
resulting in downsloping winds helping temperatures warm into the
mid 50s to even low 60s. Did nudge high temperatures up some for
locales that favor downsloping warming such as Hill City, McCook,
Tribune, Burlington and Yuma. Winds with the trough may become a
little breezy at times with some gusts of 25-30 mph through the
afternoon before quickly waning during the late afternoon as the
nocturnal inversion sets in. West-southwest winds are forecast to
continue Monday night into Tuesday as well so have nudged low
temperatures up a few degrees mainly into the upper 20s to low 30s
with the exceptions of climatologically colder locales such as
western Cheyenne county Colorado.

Tuesday, warmer temperatures than Monday are forecast with highs in
the mid to upper 60s as a westerly wind continues as downslope
warming continues. Guidance has trended towards clearer skies
through the day which should eliminate the variable of clouds
keeping temperatures down some. A clipper system across the northern
Plains will increase the 850mb wind field across mainly northern
portions of the area. Mixing heights are forecast to be around 2500-
3000 feet AGL which am basing the forecasted winds on the GFS which
typically handles mixing the best looks to result in wind gusts of
35-40 mph across the northern counties. Due to the mild temperatures
humidity values are forecast to fall into the lower 20s which may
flirt with some elevated fire weather conditions. As mentioned with
the clipper system over the northern Plains a cold front is forecast
to move through the area during the mid to late evening hours
which will shift winds to the north. At this time not seeing any
precipitation with the front but may need to keep an eye on low
stratus potential as it moves through along with breezy to
gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Starting the extended period Wednesday, the clipper system and
associated cold front move east away from the area resulting in
cooler but still slightly above normal temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Winds through the day
especially across western portions of the area are forecast to
shift back to the west- southwest as yet another surface trough
moves through. May need to keep an eye on some flurry potential
across northeastern portions of the area are as a subtle
shortwave moves across central Nebraska but at this time not
seeing anything impactful with this.

Thursday and into the weekend is when the forecast confidence starts
to take a hit. The west-southwest winds from Wednesday are forecast
to continue into Thursday but there is a stronger cold front lurking
across the northern Plains. The question is when will this move
through? GEFS ensembles show a 75% chance it will move through
during the day Thursday and 25% chance it will delay until the
evening hours. ECMWF ensembles are in good consensus with the warmer
solution and delays the front until middle of the day Friday
but not nearly as cold as the GEFS. ECMWF-AIFS is a good middle
ground and actually seems to agree with the EFI to an extent
with more normal temperatures and warmer temperatures across
I-25. Currently I`m leaning slightly more towards the warmer
(near to slightly below normal temperatures)and not as cold
solutions as looking at the GEFS Mean Spread the latest 00Z run
of it shows a split of the cold front plowing through the area
and the cold breaking apart and moving east. The 18Z run did
show the same as well but later, the 00Z run is earlier. This
tells me that there are GEFS members getting on board with what
the ECWMF is suggesting.

As for precipitation chances, if the colder solution were to
pan out I could see a bit of an increase in light snow potential
still and perhaps some freezing precipitation mainly along and
north of I-70. LREF ensemble soundings show the potential for a
period of a warm nose assuming everything else can come together
early Thursday morning so may be something to keep an eye on.
This could also be influenced by the GEFS which is member of
the LREF which shows a 10% chance for Trace of ice. If the
warmer solution were to pan out then the better forcing will lie
northeast of the area and any precipitation potential will be
very low for most but still some light precipitation potential
along and north of Highway 36. Newest forecast has virtually
eliminated the precipitation potential with is a reversal of
what was shown last night. Until guidance can start getting more
on board with the front I would expect this continue. Overall
continue to check back over the next few days as guidance should
start correlating on a solution.

Current 25-75th percentile spread is a good 20 degree difference
which is pretty substantial for a day 4 and day 5 forecast with
highs for Goodland for example ranging from the upper 40s to
the upper 60s for Thursday and flirting with freezing to the low
50s on Friday. If the GEFS and colder solutions pan out highs
would struggle to get out of the 20s and lows would fall into
the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions continue for each terminal. Patchy fog resulting
in MVFR visibilities is east of the MCK terminal in eastern Red
Willow county where KCSB has been reporting 3-6sm visibilities.
It`s possible that MCK can drop some around sunrise if winds can
go calm for a period of time as the dew point depression is
around 1-2 degrees. For such a conditional scenario will leave
out of the TAF for now. Winds are still forecast to turn to the
WNW through the day with some wind gusts of 20-25 knots at each
terminal before shifting back to the WSW by the end of the
period. Latest RAP sounding shows some LLWS potential for MCK
this morning through 15Z and again tonight starting around 06Z.
LLWS looks to be a bit more marginal for GLD so will leave out.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg