070
FXUS63 KGLD 171933
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
133 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong NNW winds will develop in the wake of a cold frontal
  passage during the day on Saturday. Sustained winds at 30-40
  mph and gusts to 50-60 mph are anticipated across the
  majority of the area. Wind of this magnitude may create
  difficult travel conditions for high-profile vehicles. Some
  dust may accompany the winds as well.

- Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area Saturday
  night into Sunday morning. Those not in the Freeze Watch a
  widespread frost is becoming more likely.

- Another cold front with strong winds and perhaps dust may
  occur Monday.

- Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct
  21).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

More tranquil conditions are in store for the day with a low
pressure system spinning across the norther Plains and large scale
troughing remaining further off the west. In wake of last night`s
cold front high temperatures for the day are forecast to be in ht
upper 60s to mid 70s across the area with full sun. NNW winds are
forecast to be in place around 10-15 mph before switching to
the south overnight. If winds can remain light and variable
overnight across the northern portions of the area then some
patchy river valley fog may develop. With the majority of the
area seeing winds become more southerly overall confidence in
any fog is very low.

Saturday, a cold front from the low pressure system across the
northern Plains moves across the area. GEFS ensembles does still
continue to show some spread with the timing of the front with
perhaps a slower frontal passage than what is currently being
depicted on deterministic guidance. Winds are forecast to increase
behind the front with strengthening 850 and 700mb jets. At this
time current thinking is that strong sustained winds of 25-40
mph will occur with the 850mb wind field. The biggest question
is how strong will gusts be as decent agreement of the 700mb
jets being 45-55 knots. Mixing heights are currently forecast
around 4000-5000 feet. Modest cold air advection is also
forecast to be ongoing as well which would help assist with
mixing but mid level clouds could also mitigate how deep of
mixing can occur. With all of this said am anticipating wind
gusts of 50 to isolated pockets of 60 mph through the afternoon.
If the front were to slow down (20-30% chance) then winds may
be stronger towards the realm of gusts of 55-65 mph. I have also
introduced patchy dust into the forecast as well. For this
forecast package have targeted areas that received less
rainfall from yesterday and the lowest 5cm soil moisture
according to the Kansas Mesonet sites. If the front is slower to
move through then dust may be more of a concern as it would be
better coinciding with the stronger jets. Also added in some
less than 10% chances for rainfall primarily across northeastern
portions of the area due to the left exit region of the strong
jet as well.

Saturday night and into Sunday morning, clouds will clear out as
drier air pushes in in wake of the front. A surface high is also
forecast to develop along along the Kansas/Colorado line which would
lead to the potential for strong radiational cooling potential on
top of the already ongoing cold air advection. Despite guidance
probabilities being a bit on the lower side for Cheyenne, Rawlins
and Sherman counties in Kansas for 32 degrees or less, am planning
on including them in a Freeze Watch along with all of our Colorado
and Nebraska counties due to the surface high in place and where the
driest dew points are currently depicting. The one factor that
could derail freezing temperatures is if winds turn southerly
sooner than currently forecast For the rest of the area at least
a frost is continuing to look more and more likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 128 PM
MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Starting the extended period, a surface trough develops
shifting winds to the southwest leading to a little bit of a
warmup into the mid to upper 70s. The main focus for the
extended period will be another strong cold front moving through
the area associated with yet another low across the northern
Plains. The wind field with this front at this time is quite a
bit stronger than the one currently forecast on Saturday as
forecast soundings such as the 12Z GFS has 55-60 knot winds at
the top of the mixing layer. After collaboration with
surrounding offices have nudged winds up in the forecast to
account for this. Blowing dust potential, assuming these winds
hold may also be a bit higher than what is currently forecast
for Saturday, due to stronger wind field and having multiple
days of further drying of the top soils. Will also need to keep
an eye on fire weather as well as elevated conditions are
currently forecast.

In wake of the front another surface high moves in which at this
time looks to be a bit broader. At this time another frost/freeze
will be on the table as well along with the potential for a more
widespread freeze as well. Will hold off on introducing frost
into the grids at this time to see how the Sunday morning freeze
plays out as the growing season may come to and end for some.

Midweek another wave moves across the area. Guidance has been
consistently suggesting this to be more compact. This looks to be
the area`s next potential for some rainfall but will depend on the
final placement of this system, if it drops to far south then the
rain chances decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period for each
terminal. NNW winds are forecast to back and become westerly
throughout the rest of the day. Wind gusts around 20 knots are
forecast as well, albeit a bit more sporadic at GLD hence the
tempo. Towards the latter part of the period a cold front is
forecast to move through shifting the winds to the north and
dramatically increasing them gusting around 35 knots. Some dust
may also be possible which is the reasoning for the few025,
overall confidence in dust fairly low at this time for each
terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     KSZ001-002-013.
CO...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg