802
FXUS63 KGLD 070458
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1058 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, locally dense, may develop over portions of the area
  early Tuesday morning.

- Warming trend begins Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s by
  late week and into the weekend.

- Next potentially impactful system may occur this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure and associated cold air advection continue to
filter into the area. Thick cloud cover remains in place as well
although some breaks are seen across central Nebraska where
some drier mid level air resides. High temperatures for the day
remain forecast in the low 50s across the area. If cloud cover
can remain thick enough then some spotty locales may not even
hit 50 degrees. Have added drizzle into the forecast for the
majority of the day for most of the area as some weak omega
remains around or just below 850-800mb range; which correlates
well with what is occurring now and what hourly RAP13 guidance
is depicting the current omega to be. Overnight a weak 500mb
shortwave is forecast to move across SW Kansas which may lead to
some showers and isolated storms primarily along and south of
Highway 40. Guidance has trended a little further south with
this wave however so have nudged rainfall chances down some.
Also am noticing some continuation of weak surface omega as well
before 09Z so have drizzle mention continuing but 12Z RAP
soundings are not as saturated in the profile as they are as of
right now which leads to me think it may be a bit more spotty
what is currently being observed.

A surface high is forecast to nudge into the area from the
north leading to light and variable winds across mainly northern
portions of the area which may result in some shallow
radiational fog potential as 15Z RAP soundings around sunrise
across northeast portions of the area. If fog doesn`t develop
then some patchy frost may develop. Further to the west mainly
along and near the Highway 27 corridor from Dundy down towards
Greeley county, winds have been trending towards more of a
northeasterly direction which is climatologically favored for
fog. Guidance has been trending more towards cloud cover
breaking across northern portions of the area overnight. If this
does occur then strong radiational cooling potential would
ensue as dew points may fall as low as the mid 30s. Some patchy
frost may occur as well if this would be the case favoring
mainly river valleys. Due to the conditional nature of this and
the very low probability it would affect a large area of a
county will forego any Frost Advisories at this time.

Tuesday, zonal flow returns to the area with influences of the
surface high remaining especially for eastern portions of the
forecast area. Guidance is starting to trend towards stratus
continuing across western and southwestern portions of the area
through the day which will again impact temperatures so have
begun a lowering trends; high temperatures at this time are
currently forecast in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.
The surface high across the area does look to lead to continued
lighter winds across the area eventually turning to the east as
the high pressure departs the area. A weak wave off of the
Rockies during the evening may lead to 15-20% chance of
additional showers during the evening hours mainly south of
Interstate 70. Tuesday evening and night winds will start
turning more southerly however eastern areas may continue to
keep the southeasterly winds. If this is the case then the
potential exists for fog again to develop; perhaps even dense
fog with a high mixing ratio difference between the surface and
1km AGL. Will preclude from including fog in the forecast for
now to assure consistency with guidance due to such subtle wind
difference .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The start of the extended period sees some ridging developing
across the southern Plains resulting in a warming trend for the
area with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s currently. The
ridge is forecast to amplify some into the weekend with 80s
returning for highs. Winds on Wednesday are forecast to become
breezy as a surface trough moves through the area gusting 30-35
mph. We are forecast to get a surge of low level moisture
helping keep humidity values well above any concerns for fire
weather. Humidity values on Thursday are forecast to be lower on
the backside of the trough along with warmer temperatures, but
due to the fact we are currently forecast to be behind the
trough winds are forecast to remain at bay to preclude fire
weather concerns.

Friday and into the weekend, another trough is forecast to
develop across the western CONUS. Warmest temperatures are
forecast to occur during this time with highs in the mid 80s
forecast on Saturday. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to
develop during the day Saturday possibly gusting into the mid to
upper 40s via a strengthening 850 and 700mb jet in response to
a developing surface low across northeast Colorado. At this
time, it appears that dew points will remain higher than what
occurred this past weekend; even with deep mixing perhaps
elevated fire weather conditions could occur. A cold front is
then forecast to move across the area Sunday which may be the
only potential for rainfall seen in the extended period at this
time. It is worth noting that the 12Z GFS indicates a strong
850mb jet with the front and has been speeding up and
strengthening from previous runs. If this does pan out then
gusty to windy conditions may also accompany the front. An
interesting feature to keep an eye on over the coming days to
see if this trend does continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

GLD: Light/variable winds will prevail through the majority of
the TAF period. Winds will shift to the SE and increase to ~8-13
knots late Tuesday afternoon (~00Z Wed) and persist through the
evening (06Z Wed). Ongoing MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR and
diminish from north to south late this evening. With light
winds, a moist low-level airmass and a clearing trend, fog may
develop (sub-VFR conditions may return) a few hours on either
side of sunrise (~10-14Z) Tuesday morning. Thereafter and
otherwise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail.

MCK: Light/variable winds will prevail through the majority of
the TAF period. Winds will shift to the SE and increase to ~8-13
knots Tuesday evening.. by the end of the TAF period (~06Z
Wed). With light winds, a moist low-level airmass and a clearing
trend, fog may develop (sub-VFR conditions may return) a few
hours on either side of sunrise (~10-14Z) Tuesday morning.
Thereafter and otherwise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to
prevail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent