


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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070 FXUS63 KGLD 171933 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong NNW winds will develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage during the day on Saturday. Sustained winds at 30-40 mph and gusts to 50-60 mph are anticipated across the majority of the area. Wind of this magnitude may create difficult travel conditions for high-profile vehicles. Some dust may accompany the winds as well. - Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Those not in the Freeze Watch a widespread frost is becoming more likely. - Another cold front with strong winds and perhaps dust may occur Monday. - Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct 21). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/... Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 More tranquil conditions are in store for the day with a low pressure system spinning across the norther Plains and large scale troughing remaining further off the west. In wake of last night`s cold front high temperatures for the day are forecast to be in ht upper 60s to mid 70s across the area with full sun. NNW winds are forecast to be in place around 10-15 mph before switching to the south overnight. If winds can remain light and variable overnight across the northern portions of the area then some patchy river valley fog may develop. With the majority of the area seeing winds become more southerly overall confidence in any fog is very low. Saturday, a cold front from the low pressure system across the northern Plains moves across the area. GEFS ensembles does still continue to show some spread with the timing of the front with perhaps a slower frontal passage than what is currently being depicted on deterministic guidance. Winds are forecast to increase behind the front with strengthening 850 and 700mb jets. At this time current thinking is that strong sustained winds of 25-40 mph will occur with the 850mb wind field. The biggest question is how strong will gusts be as decent agreement of the 700mb jets being 45-55 knots. Mixing heights are currently forecast around 4000-5000 feet. Modest cold air advection is also forecast to be ongoing as well which would help assist with mixing but mid level clouds could also mitigate how deep of mixing can occur. With all of this said am anticipating wind gusts of 50 to isolated pockets of 60 mph through the afternoon. If the front were to slow down (20-30% chance) then winds may be stronger towards the realm of gusts of 55-65 mph. I have also introduced patchy dust into the forecast as well. For this forecast package have targeted areas that received less rainfall from yesterday and the lowest 5cm soil moisture according to the Kansas Mesonet sites. If the front is slower to move through then dust may be more of a concern as it would be better coinciding with the stronger jets. Also added in some less than 10% chances for rainfall primarily across northeastern portions of the area due to the left exit region of the strong jet as well. Saturday night and into Sunday morning, clouds will clear out as drier air pushes in in wake of the front. A surface high is also forecast to develop along along the Kansas/Colorado line which would lead to the potential for strong radiational cooling potential on top of the already ongoing cold air advection. Despite guidance probabilities being a bit on the lower side for Cheyenne, Rawlins and Sherman counties in Kansas for 32 degrees or less, am planning on including them in a Freeze Watch along with all of our Colorado and Nebraska counties due to the surface high in place and where the driest dew points are currently depicting. The one factor that could derail freezing temperatures is if winds turn southerly sooner than currently forecast For the rest of the area at least a frost is continuing to look more and more likely. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Starting the extended period, a surface trough develops shifting winds to the southwest leading to a little bit of a warmup into the mid to upper 70s. The main focus for the extended period will be another strong cold front moving through the area associated with yet another low across the northern Plains. The wind field with this front at this time is quite a bit stronger than the one currently forecast on Saturday as forecast soundings such as the 12Z GFS has 55-60 knot winds at the top of the mixing layer. After collaboration with surrounding offices have nudged winds up in the forecast to account for this. Blowing dust potential, assuming these winds hold may also be a bit higher than what is currently forecast for Saturday, due to stronger wind field and having multiple days of further drying of the top soils. Will also need to keep an eye on fire weather as well as elevated conditions are currently forecast. In wake of the front another surface high moves in which at this time looks to be a bit broader. At this time another frost/freeze will be on the table as well along with the potential for a more widespread freeze as well. Will hold off on introducing frost into the grids at this time to see how the Sunday morning freeze plays out as the growing season may come to and end for some. Midweek another wave moves across the area. Guidance has been consistently suggesting this to be more compact. This looks to be the area`s next potential for some rainfall but will depend on the final placement of this system, if it drops to far south then the rain chances decrease. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1053 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period for each terminal. NNW winds are forecast to back and become westerly throughout the rest of the day. Wind gusts around 20 knots are forecast as well, albeit a bit more sporadic at GLD hence the tempo. Towards the latter part of the period a cold front is forecast to move through shifting the winds to the north and dramatically increasing them gusting around 35 knots. Some dust may also be possible which is the reasoning for the few025, overall confidence in dust fairly low at this time for each terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for KSZ001-002-013. CO...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg