436
FXUS63 KGLD 191731
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday morning should see fog return to the area. Patches
  of freezing fog may lead to slick elevated surfaces.

- Widespread rainfall expected with an upcoming storm system on
  Thursday and Friday. Western portions of the area may have a
  rain/snow mix.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

This morning, as a mid-level ridge is moving over the region,
fog and stratus have formed across the eastern CWA. The eastern
CWA will be the most heavily impacted by this around sunrise. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the eastern portions of
the CWA until 16Z. KHLC has reported dense freezing fog, but is
the only site in the CWA that is below freezing. With that in
mind, freezing fog could lead to slick elevated surface, but
icing on roads is not expected. There is a 50% chance the
Advisory will need to be expanded to the west, but mid-level
clouds and southerly winds should hold the fog to the advised
area. After sunrise, south- southwesterly winds will pick up for
a couple of hours and clear out any remaining fog and work to
lift the stratus.

A low-level low coming off the Southern Rockies will push a
weak cold front through the CWA today. This will lead to light
and variable winds moving in around 15-18Z and remaining for the
rest of the day. Mid and upper-level clouds will also remain
for most of the day, especially in the eastern CWA, but should
break over eastern Colorado in the midday. Depending on when the
western CWA clears, temperatures will warm into the low to mid
60s. Over the eastern CWA, where clouds will likely linger all
day, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s. However,
there is a 30% chance highs will top out in the upper 40s for
Red Willow and Norton counties.

Tonight, a shortwave ridge moves over the region as winds
become northeasterly and RH values climb to near 100%. This will
lead to more fog. Confidence for widespread dense fog Thursday
morning is sitting around 35-45%. Temperatures across the CWA
looks to cool into the low to mid 30s. This is leading to a
10-20% chance of patchy freezing fog for locations generally
along and north of a line from Norton, KS to Goodland, KS, to
Flagler, CO. Road surface temperatures are still warm enough
that widespread black ice would not form even if freezing fog
occurs. However, elevated surfaces, such as bridges and raised
ramps, could see light ice accumulation if the freezing fog
occurs.

Thursday, will remain mostly cloudy ahead of the incoming low.
This low, which is currently near Baja California, will be
coming over the Southern Rockies Thursday. We expect
precipitation to begin after 18Z, starting in the southeastern
CWA, and lasting until Friday afternoon/evening, exiting to the
northeast. The dominant precipitation type is forecast to remain
rain, some snow is forecast to mix in over eastern Colorado.
Over the past 12 hours, the LREF and GEFS have moderately backed
off on the likelihood of snow mixing in. Current expectation is
early Friday morning, between 9-15Z, eastern Colorado will see
a rain/snow mix. There is a 30-40% chance of a rain/snow mix
west of a line from Kit Carson, CO to Haigler, NE and a 15%
chance of accumulating snow near Flagler, CO. Accumulating snow
will be made difficult from the warm ground temperatures and
rain melting the snow as it falls.

As far as a contingency, there is ~2% chance that the CAA is
stronger than guidance is showing or a snowband sets up over
eastern Colorado. This would lead to snow for a few hours
instead of just a rain/snow mix. In this scenario, 2-4 inches of
snow could accumulate, impacting I-70 west of Burlington, CO.
Additionally, if this does play out, winds from the east may
gust around 20-25 kts, leading to blowing snow impacting
visibility and wet, heavy snow sticking to east facing objects.

Overnight lows Thursday are forecast to cool into the low 30s
to low 40s with the potential for temperatures below freezing
mainly staying in eastern Colorado. Highs Friday will be limited
by the precipitation, likely remaining in the 40s. The NBM is
likely too warm by 5-10 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

Overview: A complex, split-flow synoptic pattern will persist
over the Continental US through early next week. Long range
guidance continues to indicate that another upper level low
(anticipated to move ashore northern-central California on Thu)
will stall/cut-off along the southern Pacific Coast (Fri-Sat)
prior to progressing E or ENE across the Desert Southwest/
4-Corners (~Sun) and Southern/Central Plains (~Mon).

Saturday: It seems likely that.. confluent flow aloft will be
present in the lee of the central Rockies (downstream of the
stalled low along the southern Pacific Coast).. and that dry
conditions, light winds and slightly above average temperatures
will prevail.

Sunday: Similar to Saturday, albeit with increasing upper level
cloud cover (and slightly cooler temps) as the previously
stalled upper low begins to traverse the Desert Southwest/
4-Corners and southerly flow aloft overspreads the southern-
central Rockies and High Plains.

Sunday Night-Tuesday: Below average forecast confidence*.
Precipitation possible. 00Z 11/19 operational runs of the GFS
and ECMWF are in broad agreement with regard to the synoptic
pattern and overall course of events, though.. differences
persist with regard to the evolution, timing and track of the
upper low. The GFS, for example, indicates a slightly faster
system with a more southern track (across the Southern Plains)
whereas the ECMWF is relatively slower and indicates a more
northern track (across the Central Plains). Both solutions are
indicative of a warm, `southern stream` low (similar to the
upcoming Thu-Fri system). However.. given the forecast range
(120-156 hours out), the complex nature of the synoptic pattern
and an increasing potential for phasing between both (northern/
southern) jet branches.. an interaction that may [1] facilitate
the development of a deep upper level trough over the central-
eastern CONUS and [2] open the `Arctic airmass gate`.. it would
be premature to take present solutions at face value.

Note: *Forecast confidence typically decreases with range.
Below average, in this context, is intended to communicate a
further reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/
increased pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by
cut-off waves and multibranched jet/wave interactions, among
others.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast for the period. That
being said, keep an eye out for some fog and low ceilings around
the 09-15Z timeframe. While only a 10% chance due to drier air
forecast to move in near the surface, any fog that forms would
likely be dense with visibility around 1/4 of a mile. Ceilings
would likely be in the 200-600ft range in this scenario as well
so look for updates. Otherwise, winds near the surface should be
below 6-8 kts through the forecast period. The last thing of
interest is the possibility of rain showers developing around
16-18Z.

For KMCK... Ceilings around 1000-2000ft are forecast to linger
through about 19-20Z, before lifting and allowing VFR conditions
through 08-12Z. About that time, low level moisture is forecast
to move over the terminal. With this, fog with visibility around
1/4 to 3 SM is forecast along with ceilings below 1000ft.
Current confidence in this occurring is about 70%. Once any fog
and low ceilings lift near the end of the period, VFR conditions
should hold until rain moves in shortly after 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK