154
FXUS63 KGRR 020804
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
304 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy lake effect snow diminishes along lakeshore this morning

- Light snow Wednesday, then colder

- Periodic light snow through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Heavy lake effect snow diminishes along lakeshore this morning

Radar shows a band of heavy snow extending from mid lake NNE
to northern Oceana county. This band has been responsible for
producing a half to a foot of snow during the past 15 hrs or so.
H8 omega progs indicate this band will move onshore across Ottawa,
Muskegon, Oceana counties around 4 am and then slowly dissipate.
Indeed, radar is beginning to show the eastward movement of the
band. We`ll keep the winter headlines going through 7 am as the
band moves onshore and produces a few more inches of snow.

Farther south, light snow is winding down across the southern cwa
as the upper trough axis moves east across the cwa. We`re
generally looking at a mostly cloudy day, but a few peeks of sun
are possible too as ridging noses into the Great Lakes.

- Light snow Wednesday, then colder

Another strong cold front will move across the cwa Wednesday.
Light snow will accompany the front. However, most
accumulations...1-2 inches...will be west of US-131 where the lake
will add some influence. Around a half inch of snow is expected
east of US-131.

A quick shot of arctic air will follow the front and h8
temperatures will from -8c to -18c by Thursday morning. This will
result in highs Thursday and Friday only in the lower to mid 20s.

Boundary layer RH progs show dry air (40-50 percent) moving over
the lake Thursday which will limit lake effect snow potential.

- Periodic light snow through the weekend

A series of short waves are progd to move through the long wave
upper trough resulting in cold air remaining entrenched over the
Great Lakes and each wave bringing the chance of light snow. The
first wave moves through Friday afternoon/night producing a 70
percent chance of snow over the western half of the cwa.

Another cold front/short wave combination follows on Saturday
resulting in a 40-50 percent chance of snow west of US-131
Saturday/Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

IFR conditions will be widespread in light snow overnight.
Heavier snow with a lake effect band is expected to affect MKG
after 08Z and could bring brief LIFR conditions. Conditions will
improve Tuesday morning as the snow moves out and VFR conditions
should prevail after 18Z.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ037-043-
     050-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ038-
     044.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Ostuno