733
FXUS63 KGRR 251207
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
707 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers with mild temps Today

- Winter Weather with impacts possible Wednesday through Thursday

- Cold weather ahead through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025


- Rain showers with mild temps Today

Short wave trough will continue mid southwesterly flow through the
daytime with warmer, moister air moving across Michigan. This will
bring more widespread rain showers today, with mild temps around
50 this afternoon.

- Winter Weather with impacts possible Wednesday through Thursday

A large upper level low remains on track to move through the
upper midwest and move across Michigan Wednesday through
Thanksgiving. Models remain consistent on the track and timing of
the system. Strong northwesterly flow will stream across the lake
with ECMWF showing wind gusts means at MKG and LDM between 50 to
60 mph. Several other guidances remain lower. Have held off on
any headlines though at least an advsy will probably be needed.

 Steep drop in temps should occur early Wednesday with temps
dropping. 850 mp temps as low as -9C will be overhead with strong
omega values pulling in lakeshore moisture, aiding in snow shower
rates.
 CAMS are hinting on strong frontogenetic forcing along the I 94
corridor, especially in the Kalamazoo, Battle Creek area westward
with decent CAPE for this time of year. Two areas of higher
snowfall rates are shaping up. The first is through the Northwest
corner of the region, East of Ludington and north of Big Rapids.
The strong winds, good SLR`s and above mention Omega, which is a
good indicator of lake enhancement, means higher snowfall totals
will be possible Wednesday night through at least the first half
of Thanksgiving. Due to this potential have issued a Winter Storm
Watch along the US 10 corridor.

 The second location in in and around the Kalamazoo area. This
potential remains more tenuous, hence the lack of a headline.
However, the previously mentioned dynamics, the lake enhancement
and the persistent, long period of snow bands through Thursday
afternoon could allow for decent snow accumulations. The factors
that could alter this outcome remains the winds, warmer ground
temps and when the rain transitions to snow. The best timeframe
for snow will be between 22Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. During
this timeframe there will be  around a DGZ 5KFT deep with temps
of
-10 to -18C. Those conditions are prime for dendritic growth. So
 will have to watch to see if these conditions persist. Either
 way, impacts to holiday travel are expected Wednesday afternoon
 through Thanksgiving.


- Cold weather ahead through the weekend

H8 temperatures will be near -12c Thursday through Friday. That
creates high instability over the lake. A strong short wave
moving through the upper trough will result in lake effect snow
showers on Thanksgiving and will continue into Thursday night
before diminishing Friday when drier air begins to flow over the
lake.

The next system from the southern stream will arrive Saturday.
Given the cold air in place the precipitation will begin as snow
but then mix with rain Sunday. We`ll like see some snow
accumulation with that system as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 707 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Dry low levels have staved off showers, though that will be short
lived and more widespread scattered showers are approaching from
the south and will overspread the region over the next few hours.

The current VFR conditions will quickly drop to IFR values
by 14Z. The cigs and will remain there today. There is some
signal that visibilities will lower but remain in the 3 to 5 SM
range. Vsbys could drop to the 1 to 2 SM around 18Z. Winds will
be light and variable through the day from the southeast turning
to the southwest.
 Vsbys will increase towards the end of the day with cigs
remaining IFR with improving cigs after 08Z with winds becoming
gusty from the southwest upwards of 25kts after 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

DUe to the strong winds due to the strong system crossing the
lakeshore, have upgraded the Gale Watch to a warning with winds
possibly becoming storm force Wednesday to Thursday. Due to this
potential have a storm watch out with Gales continuing Thursday .

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     morning for MIZ038>040.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ844>849.
     Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...04/Ceru