808
FXUS63 KGRR 201120
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
620 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Dry through the Weekend

- Pattern change to cold next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Mostly Dry through the Weekend

Model guidance is consistent with keeping northern and southern
stream separate as the troughs move east of Lower Michigan
through Friday. This means southwest Lower Michigan will see
little in the way of measurable rain with the showers remaining
south and mostly north. Another northern stream shortwave trough
axis moves through Saturday night, but favorable jet dynamics are
north of the forecast area and once again the precip misses
southwest Lower Michigan.

- Pattern change to cold next week

Phasing of the northern and southern streams eventually happens
early next week with cyclogenesis across the Northern Plains into
Canada and a trailing front/trough concentrating an area of rain
moving through Lower Michigan on Tuesday. A longwave trough in the
wake of this low will bring a drop in temperatures for the middle
of next week. Cyclonic flow with a potential shortwave trough
axis rotating through could bring lake effect snow showers by the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

IFR conditions with areas of LIFR can be expected this moorning.
An improvement to MVFR then VFR can be expected this afternoon.
Winds are light and generally from the southeast.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno