314
FXUS63 KGRR 131113
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
613 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and dry through Friday

- Showery Saturday, then cooler

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Warmer and dry through Friday

IR loop shows clear skies across the cwa as a ridge begins to move
overhead. We`re in for a warming trend as h8 temperatures rise
from -2c to +14c by Saturday morning. Highs will be near 50 today,
in the mid 50s Friday and around 60 by Saturday.

After sunny days today and Friday, clouds will increase ahead of
the next cold front that will move across Lower MI Saturday
afternoon.

- Showery Saturday, then cooler

Despite the stronger southwest flow ahead of the front, moisture
transport isn`t all that impressive over Lower MI. Moisture
advection is maximized along the frontal boundary as it moves
through. Thus, despite 35 to 45 PoPs Saturday over the cwa, if it
does actually rain, QPF is minuscule, just a couple of hundredths
as we see in the various ensembles. There is an impressive upper
low driving this front, but the main energy from it remains north
of the cwa.

Cooler air will flow into the region behind the cold front and
highs Sunday through early next week will remain in the mid
40s...a few degrees below normal.

A southern stream system may try to push light rain into the cwa
Tuesday but may have some difficulty overcoming the dry air
flowing around the Ontario high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Skies are clear across the region. IR loop shows some cirrus west
of the lake that will float over the terminals today. Otherwise,
warm advection commences tonight which will result in a mid cloud
deck around 10k ft.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04