149
FXUS63 KGRR 200439
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1139 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain Thursday evening

- Chance of ran Monday night and Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Chance of rain Thursday evening

High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and low
level winds will become southeasterly. A weak short wave in the
upper flow is responsible for the mid/high clouds streaming across
the Great Lakes today. As dewpoints slowly rise after midnight, a
strengthening inversion will trap that moisture resulting in
overcast conditions into Thursday. The next chance of rain arrives
Thursday night as a short wave moving across the UP pushes a cold
front southeast across the cwa. Moisture along the frontal
boundary isn`t all that impressive but a 35-30 PoP for light rain seems
reasonable. The frontal boundary will be across central Indiana
Friday which will result in some sunshine as some ridging builds
in from the upper MS Valley.

- Chance of ran Monday night through Tuesday night

A southern stream system will track toward the southern Great
Lakes Monday night. Moisture streaming north from the Gulf
followed by a trailing short wave should provide a higher (50+
percent) chance of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. The
operational ECMWF and ensemble members are 12 hrs or so slower
than the GFS, so Monday night may end up being dry but Tuesday
looks wet. Temperatures will be too warm for snow over the cwa
given highs in the mid to upper 40s. The warmer air will carry
over into Wednesday ...a busy travel day before cooler air flows
back into the cwa late in the day behind the departing low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

The main focus for the 06z set of forecasts is on the low cloud
trends through the period. Nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery shows the low cloud deck sprawling northward. As of
1130 pm EST/0430z it has spread across all of the forecast
terminals except KLAN, where it should over very soon. The clouds
start out in the higher end of MVFR, and have been lowering to the
lower end of MVFR. This trend will continue, with IFR likely at
most of the sites by mid morning.

Model cross section RH progs show this will stay in place through
tomorrow. There could be some slight improvement late in the
afternoon, but will stay IFR most of the day, and tomorrow
evening. Definitely will play this pessimistic given we are almost
at the weakest sun angle of the year.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...NJJ