Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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149 FXUS63 KGRR 200439 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1139 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of rain Thursday evening - Chance of ran Monday night and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Chance of rain Thursday evening High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and low level winds will become southeasterly. A weak short wave in the upper flow is responsible for the mid/high clouds streaming across the Great Lakes today. As dewpoints slowly rise after midnight, a strengthening inversion will trap that moisture resulting in overcast conditions into Thursday. The next chance of rain arrives Thursday night as a short wave moving across the UP pushes a cold front southeast across the cwa. Moisture along the frontal boundary isn`t all that impressive but a 35-30 PoP for light rain seems reasonable. The frontal boundary will be across central Indiana Friday which will result in some sunshine as some ridging builds in from the upper MS Valley. - Chance of ran Monday night through Tuesday night A southern stream system will track toward the southern Great Lakes Monday night. Moisture streaming north from the Gulf followed by a trailing short wave should provide a higher (50+ percent) chance of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. The operational ECMWF and ensemble members are 12 hrs or so slower than the GFS, so Monday night may end up being dry but Tuesday looks wet. Temperatures will be too warm for snow over the cwa given highs in the mid to upper 40s. The warmer air will carry over into Wednesday ...a busy travel day before cooler air flows back into the cwa late in the day behind the departing low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 The main focus for the 06z set of forecasts is on the low cloud trends through the period. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows the low cloud deck sprawling northward. As of 1130 pm EST/0430z it has spread across all of the forecast terminals except KLAN, where it should over very soon. The clouds start out in the higher end of MVFR, and have been lowering to the lower end of MVFR. This trend will continue, with IFR likely at most of the sites by mid morning. Model cross section RH progs show this will stay in place through tomorrow. There could be some slight improvement late in the afternoon, but will stay IFR most of the day, and tomorrow evening. Definitely will play this pessimistic given we are almost at the weakest sun angle of the year. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...NJJ