435
FXUS63 KGRR 141744
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1244 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm advection underway

- Chance of light rain Saturday, then cooler

- Showers late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Warm advection underway

IR loop shows a band of mid clouds stretching from northern Lower
to the Ohio Valley moving east. These clouds are the tell tale
sign of warm advection overhead. There are clearing skies behind
it and we`ll see plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures today.
Highs will be in the mid 50s today.

- Chance of light rain Saturday, then cooler

The next cold front will move across the region Saturday. The
stronger dynamics with the system are over northern Lower and
eastern Lower. It`s possible we could see a brief shower (25 to 30
Percent) but not everyone will. Those that do may see 0.01 or so,
but most areas will remain dry. The cold front will, however,
put and end to highs in the 60s that we see Saturday. By Sunday,
highs will be back in the 40s.

- Showers late week

A larger souther stream system looks like it will affect the
Great Lakes late next week. Rain will be back in the forecast by
Wednesday night as moisture streams north ahead of it from the
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure is sliding away to the east this afternoon, but it
has enough influence on our weather yet to bring VFR conditions
area wide. South flow has commenced today with south to southwest
winds of 5-15 knots at present on the back side of the high.

Conditions will remain VFR through the evening and into tonight as
a cold front approaches from the west. At 18z, the cold front is
just entering the Northern Plains across Montana and North Dakota.
The front will push south and east quickly tonight arriving in
Western Lower Michigan in the 15z-18z time frame (midday hours of
Saturday). The front will bring with it an increase in wind
overnight and especially Saturday morning where southwest winds
will gust into the 20-30 knot range. Ceilings will lower into the
MVFR category in the 12z-18z time frame Saturday morning.
Moisture depth is lacking, so while rain showers will be possible
they will be widely scattered. VCSH wording should take care of
the chance at this point.





&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Duke