718
FXUS62 KGSP 131745
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1245 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area for the next several days
as temperatures warm through the weekend. Rain chances increase
over the mountains on Sunday and into the middle of next week as
a series of weak fronts move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1023 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather today, with afternoon RH falling into the 20% range.

2) Increasingly light winds this afternoon through tonight limit
fire danger.

3) Thin cloud cover persists today, tapering off and clearing
out overnight.

Broad, low-amplitude troughing will continue over the Southeast
today as a 1025mb surface high settles into the area.  Still seeing
a respectable amount of orographic cirrus streaming into the NC
Foothills and Piedmont, and although hi-res guidance suggests that
it will mostly subside through the evening hours, there`s also
a very weak disturbance in the mean flow visible on water vapor
imagery, presently located over the western Tennessee Valley /
Shawnee Hills region and migrating gently eastward.  This feature
should maintain some cirrus coverage through the bulk of the day,
even as orographic cirrus wanes.  Anticipating another round of deep
mixing, likely tapping into an excessively dry layer above 850mb,
and causing dewpoints to decrease markedly again this afternoon.
Low-end fire danger issues could result, but should largely be
mitigated by weaker winds, as there`s not any especially strong
flow aloft for mixing to tap into...and so afternoon breeze
should remain limited.  Expect highs this afternoon in the mid-
to upper-60s...possible a tad lower across the NC Foothills and
Piedmont as a result of lingering mountain wave cirrus.

Tonight, mostly clear skies and an increasingly light N wind should
persist through to daybreak.  Lows should bottom out in the mid-
to upper-30s across the low terrain and mountain valleys...up to a
category cooler than lows this morning owing to better radiative
cooling.  Finally, on Friday, as the center of surface high
pressure noses to our south, winds will toggle around to the SW.
Daytime mixing will be hampered by a developing subsidence inversion
Friday afternoon, and the onset of very weak moisture advection
by mid-day will further restrict the afternoon dewpoint crash.
Which is not to say it won`t be dry and a tad breezy again, but that
in general mixing should be less-efficient on Friday than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1112 AM EST Thursday: Looks like most of the fcst area
will enjoy fair and warm weather for the weekend, but there is
the small matter of some upslope cloudiness and rain potential
along the TN border upslope zones Saturday night and Sunday. The
problem will be that some modest moisture return takes place from
the western Gulf on Friday into Saturday, and this moisture moves
northward ahead of a front that is dropping down from the central
Plains/Midwest. The front should cross our region on Sunday with
the overall broad WNW flow aloft. Assuming the moisture makes
it far enough north, it would get run upslope after midnight
Saturday night in enough quantity to result in some precip near
the TN border. Fortunately, temps are warm enough that it would
only be rain. The front goes through in the morning and then we
dry out by the end of the day on Sunday. As per usual with weak
forcing and shallow moisture at this time of year, precip chances
east of the mtns will remain low. And don`t call it a cold front,
because the high temps on Sunday east of the mtns actually climb a
few more degrees compared to Saturday because of downslope warming.
More of a dry front. So, the temps should be on the order of ten
degrees or more above normal both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1152 AM EST Thursday: Once we get out into early next week,
the situation gets more complicated as the blocking pattern in
the east finally relents. An initial system over the Southwestern
US gets kicked out and rides up and over the persistent ridge
on the east side of the Rockies on Monday and gets sucked into
the confluent WNW flow toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The models
often struggle with the timing and N-S track of such systems,
so confidence isn`t especially good after what should be a dry
Monday. However, the pattern doesn`t lend itself to much in the
way of Gulf moisture return, so either way the better chances for
precip will be over the westerly upslope parts of the NC mountains
starting Monday night into Tuesday, and places east of the Blue
Ridge shouldn`t get their hopes up. A boundary should be pushed
across the region on Tuesday-ish. By mid-week, the pattern finally
starts to become progressive again, so there`s the prospect of
the boundary returning/reactivating as a warm front. By Wednesday
into Thursday, there is a great deal of difference in the model
solutions as to the timing and strength of the system coming east
across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley regions, so all bets
are off. But, there is a better chance of Gulf moisture return
mid-week onward which would suggest some kind of better precip
chances lurking out on Day 7 and late in the week. Fortunately,
temps will remain on the order of five degrees above normal across
the region, with no chance of anything wintry across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR continues through the 18z TAF period.
Some SCT orographic cirrus will linger over the NC Foothills and
Piedmont this afternoon before dissipating and giving way to FEW/SKC
everywhere tonight.  A steady NW wind, with sporadic low-end gusts,
will continue through the afternoon, dying down this evening and
giving way to light and variable winds overnight.  A few guidance
sources hint at some isolated patchy fog developing in the Little
Tennessee Valley overnight, but this should not affect any of the
TAF sites.  Friday morning, winds will toggle around to the SW.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions generally expected through the
remainder of the week. Mountain/river valley fog/low stratus could
return by Saturday morning as moisture begins to return to the area.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR