770
FXUS62 KGSP 172355
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
655 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool dry high pressure will move off the East Coast Tuesday as a
warm front brings above normal temperatures from Wednesday through
the weekend.  Moisture increases late this week as low pressure
tries to organize to our west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Monday: The region remains underneath a broad NW flow
aloft that begins to flatten into Tuesday. At the surface, high
pressure slides eastward and brings the western fringe over the
southeast. This should slowly start to increase moisture return into
the area as surface winds turn more S/SW. Regardless, the pattern
remains dry through the near term as subsidence aloft continues
to suppress any precip chances. For tonight, with clear skies
anticipated, could see overnight temps dip into the low to mid 30s.

The only weather related concern for this period is for fire
danger. Although the developing SW flow on Tuesday will promote some
moisture return, RH still looks to become critically low (below 30%)
across much of the area as dry air continues to mix down into the
boundary layer. Winds will be breezy again with gusts to near 20
mph possible at times in the NC Piedmont. Fine fuel moisture is
already very low. Although conditions do not objectively meet
criteria for an Increased Fire Danger Statement on Tuesday,
after coordinating with State of NC officials we opted to issue
one where meteorological conditions were closest, as that implies
a few locations within that area will hit criteria briefly. Hence,
our NC Piedmont counties (Alexander-Catawba-Lincoln-Gaston and east)
are included in a Statement effective 11am-6pm Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1043 AM Monday: A split flow pattern will begin taking shape
by mid week as a very active southern stream wave train remains
draped from the Desert Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic with northern
stream flow situated along and just north of the Canadian border.
Within the southern stream, a lead shortwave trough is progged to be
located over the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night with a deep closed
low spinning over southern California. The lead wave will slide
across West Virginia into Virginia overnight with only modest height
falls across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Numerous
showers with some embedded convective elements will accompany this
wave, but the majority of this activity will remain displaced north
of the CWA within a plume of deeper moisture juxtaposed with
sufficient forcing for ascent. The 12z suite of CAMs depict a
weakening line of showers moving into the mountains overnight with
perhaps a surviving shower or two trying to make a run into the
foothills. The greatest rain chances will reside along the Tennessee
border. Temperatures during the day Wednesday quickly rebound as the
passing wave quickly moves offshore and upper ridging builds across
the region. Highs will be well above normal fin the low to upper 70s
with a few readings around 80 not out of the question. This trend
continues into Thursday as upper ridging dominates the pattern east
of the Mississippi River. The only exception will be the potential
for a few showers to try and interact with the mountains in
association with deep-layer southwest flow extending atop a stalled
baroclinic zone extending from the Southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1105 AM Monday: The synoptic pattern becomes highly complex by
late week into the weekend within the split flow pattern. Guidance
has yet to display much in the way of run-to-run consistency and
still varies widely between members and respective ensembles. This
is especially clear in ensemble means where any discernible signal
gets washed out by the wide range of outcomes being depicted. The
result is lower than normal forecast confidence Friday through the
weekend. By Thursday night, the next wave in the southern stream
wave train may be ejecting into the Southern Plains with an eventual
track across the Deep South and towards the Appalachians. Timing of
the wave ejection and how it evolves remains highly uncertain, which
will have implications on any sensible weather across the region.
Some model solutions paint a weaker wave shunted north of the area
with a stronger upper ridge extending out of the Gulf. This would
result in a mainly dry forecast, if realized. On the other hand,
wetter solutions maintain a stronger wave with a farther south track
that would bring measurable rainfall to much of the area Friday
night into Saturday. Forecast confidence wanes even further beyond
that as an additional closed and cutoff upper low spins over the
Desert Southwest while a more pronounced northern stream trough digs
across the Great Lakes. The blended forecast has been maintained
again with this forecast cycle, but expect notable changes through
the week as the guidance attempts to get a better handle on how this
complicated pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Very light winds overnight with sfc high
pressure centered north of the terminal area. KAVL still prevailing
NW but those should diminish by late evening. Too dry for fog
overnight. Skies mainly SKC thru morning with only a few cirrus here
and there. Sfc high shifts closer to the East Coast Tue morning,
allowing winds to pick up from the SW. Sustained winds of 6-8 kt
expected by 17z at all sites, with a few gusts of 15-18 kt possible
in the afternoon. High altitude clouds will increase thru the day
with low VFR clouds developing over the Appalachians around/after
00z, with some chance of rain overnight Tue night. Chances too
low to mention until after 06z at KCLT and after 00z elsewhere.

Outlook: Restrictions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
with a brief VFR period on Thursday. Showers and restrictions
could return as soon as Friday, remaining possible off and on
through the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Increased Fire Danger from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/JCW
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JCW