Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
130 FXUS62 KGSP 121109 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 609 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days as temperatures go through a warming trend between today and the end of the week. Fair and warm weather is expected over the weekend. The next low pressure system could affect our region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Slippery Road Conditions this Morning for the NC/TN Border Counties 2) Highs Today will be 10-15 Degrees Warmer Compared to Yesterday 3) Dry with Intermittent Gusty Winds Lingering through Late Afternoon Freezing temps this morning combined with yesterday`s snowmelt will lead to black ice across the NC/TN border counties so plan on slippery road conditions for the morning commute. An SPS remains in effect for these locations through 9 AM as temps will rise above freezing after this time. However, shaded spots on roadways may see black ice linger longer this morning. Otherwise, cyclonic flow remains aloft through the near term while dry sfc high pressure builds into the Southeast. Intermittent low- wind gusts will linger through the late afternoon hours before diminishing by early this evening. Temperatures rebound to near normal to just below normal values this afternoon, ending up ~10-15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. Highs will climb into the lower to mid 60s east of the mountains and the mid 50s to lower 60s across the mountain valleys. Higher elevations across the NC mountains will see highs reach into the lower 40s to mid 50s. Warmer temps combined with excellent insolation will allow for better snowmelt today across the NC/TN border counties. With dewpoints gradually increasing through the period, fire wx concerns will be minimal as min RHs are expected to remain above 30% area-wide. Lighter wind speeds finally return this evening into tonight. Lows tonight will remain above freezing for most locations, but elevations above 4,500 ft will likely see temps fall around or below freezing again. Any lingering snowmelt could freeze so the black ice potential will return for these areas tonight into daybreak Thursday. Another SPS for black ice should not be needed with this potential being confined to the highest elevations in the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1130 PM EST Tuesday: Quiet weather will continue thru the short term, as dry high pressure remains in control under a NWLY flow aloft. Temps will continue a warming trend with highs back into the mid to upper 60s east of the mountains. Lows will still cool off nicely both nights, thanks to good radiational cooling conditions. Fcst soundings show rather shallow mixing both Thursday and Friday aftns, but with a downslope flow around 850 mb and some dry air aloft, could see dewpts mix out more than the NBM is showing. This may result in minimum RH values approaching 25-30%. Fortunately, winds are expected to fairly light. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1155 PM EST Tuesday: An upper trough will dig through the Great Lakes to the East Coast, which will bring an associated cold front thru the region on Sunday. The front will have little moisture to work with mainly isolated rain showers along the TN border when the front passes. Meanwhile, the warming trend continues with above normal temps expected over the weekend. Highs back into the 70s east of the mountains and possibly the major mountain valleys. Temps cool down slightly behind the front Monday and Tuesday, but remain a few degrees above normal. The 00z deterministic models remains in disagreement on their handling of an upper low over CA that ejects into the Great Basin. The GFS continues to be more aggressive with phasing the trough into the eastern CONUS longwave trough and bringing a cold front thru the forecast area on Tuesday. The 12z ECMWF and 00z Canadian show more eastern CONUS ridging and have the ejected shortwave ride further north of the area. In all these cases, the QPF response looks rather weak, and the latest NBM has trended lower on PoPs for Tuesday. Given the pattern becoming more progressive, we should see some rain chances return next week. It just might be later in the week than previously thought. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 12Z TAF period. LLWS will linger at KAND and KAVL until ~14Z-15Z. Winds will be NW at KAVL through the period. Wind east of the mountains will be SW/W through late tonight before gradually turning more WNW/NW early Thursday morning. Low-end intermittent wind gusts will linger through late this afternoon before subsiding early this evening. Lighter wind speeds are expected for the rest of the TAF period. KAVL should see LLWS return again this evening into tonight. Mostly clear skies will linger through late this evening before upper cirrus returns late tonight into early Thursday morning. KAVL and KHKY will see SCT to BKN cloud cover by the end of the TAF period. Outlook: VFR conditions generally expected through the remainder of the week. Lighter winds return Thursday, increasing the chance for mountain/river valley fog/low stratus each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...AR