Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
709 FXUS62 KGSP 142333 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 633 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the area for the next several days as temperatures warm through the weekend. A series of weak fronts moving over the area during the first half of next week will bring periodic shower chances. Showers will be confined mainly to the mountains Saturday night into Sunday with somewhat greater coverage into the foothills possible on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of Noon EST Friday: High pressure slides east of the area this afternoon bringing a light S to SW wind. With plenty of sunshine and increasing thickness values, highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Good mixing will allow dew points to mix out during the afternoon. With the warm temps, some locations will see RH values around 25%. The light winds should limit the potential for increased fire danger. Winds remain slightly elevated overnight as a cold front approaches from the west with weak moisture advection. These factors should keep lows from bottoming out despite clear skies. Lows should end up near to slightly above normal. The pressure gradient increases Saturday as the front continues to move toward the area. A lee trough develops as well. With an increasing NW mid level flow and moisture advection, expect widespread orographic cirrus to develop. Any lower clouds should be limited to the mountains, mainly during the afternoon. Not enough for any precip though during this period. Low end gusty winds are also expected by afternoon. Despite rising temps with a warming air mass, the dew points will be on the rise as well. This should keep RH values above critical levels. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1104 AM Friday: By tomorrow night, an amplified positive tilt upper trough is forecast to be draped from central Canada into the Great Lakes region while a closed upper low meanders over southern California into the Desert Southwest. The northern stream upper trough is progged to slide east through the period and will push a surface cold front into the area from the north on Sunday. Shallow moisture pooling ahead of the boundary in concert with orographic ascent should foster at least isolated to scattered showers across the mountains, especially along the Tennessee border. Cold advection into the mountains will help keep temperatures in check, but it will be a different story farther east. Outside of the mountains, the frontal boundary will arrive later in the day and compressional warming along with downslope flow and sufficient sunshine should allow for rather warm afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. A few readings in the upper 70s will also be possible. Heading into Monday, cooler air arrives behind the frontal passage with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Dewpoints will also efficiently mix out during the afternoon within a rather dry airmass with relative humidity values falling below 25%. Weak winds, however, will generally preclude greater fire weather concern. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1122 AM Friday: Continuing early next week on Tuesday, the upper pattern remains relatively unchanged as an upper trough lifts across New England while another closed upper low drops across California. In between these two features, the lead upper low over the Desert Southwest will have ejected across the Rockies and into the Central Plains. The wave is forecast to gradually deamplify as it attempts to phase with the broader New England trough while it slides across the Southern Appalachians. This may bring another round of showers to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly across the mountains, although some showers may also be possible across the foothills along and north of I-40. Predictability wanes mid to late next week as the subsequent closed and cutoff upper low spinning over the Desert Southwest attempts to finally eject towards the Great Plains. Shortwave ridging builds across the region ahead of this feature, however. Timing and evolution of the upper low ejection remains elusive at this time range and guidance often struggles with such patterns. Eventually, some rain chances appear probable to return late week into next weekend, but the timing of such remains to be seen. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Mostly SKC with only a few high clouds seen. Light mainly SW winds continue tonight although with periods of calm/VRB likely; KAVL is an exception where winds flip to NW for a time early morning to midday. Stronger SW winds develop midday with gusts of 18-22 kt likely in the afternoon. Mountain-wave cirrus also expected to create ceilings at/above FL250 during the afternoon. With sfc flow remaining SW but stronger W to WNW flow developing above inversion after 00z Sun, LLWS criteria look to be met, and mention was added for KCLT as a result of the longer period. Outlook: Rain showers and associated restrictions are possible in the mountains, and gusty winds all locations, late Saturday night and Sunday with weak cold front. Dry and VFR conditions return Monday. A low pressure system may bring rain showers and associated restrictions Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TW NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...TW LONG TERM...TW AVIATION...JCW