676
FXUS62 KGSP 101808
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic Airmass remains over the area through Tuesday, bringing
cold temperatures and gusty winds to the entire forecast area, as
well as the first significant northwest flow snow event along the
North Carolina/Tennessee border through tonight. Temperatures
rebound Wednesday and beyond with much warmer and drier conditions
expected the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 pm Monday: The latest water vapor imagery depicts upper
low centered over the Ohio Valley, with associated deep trough
extending south into the central Gulf. Regional radar imagery and
webcams indicate widespread light snow showers and flurries, with
scattered moderate snow showers extending from central Kentucky
into western North Carolina. So far, the favored NW exposed/upslope
areas along the TN/NC border have received up to 3 or 4 inches of
snow...although the high peaks/unpopulated locations have likely
seen quite a bit more than that.

Ingredients for accumulating snow showers will be best aligned (and
very impressive) as the trough axis sweeps across the area from late
this afternoon through early evening. With the moist layer across
the TN Valley into the western slopes of the mountains deepening
under re-surging cold advection, temperatures in the moist layer
will cool to around -25C...suggestive of very high snow:liquid
ratios of around 25:1. Meanwhile, conditions across the mountains
will become increasingly unstable, with steep lapse rates from the
surface to almost 600 mb depicted in forecast soundings. These
factors are indicative of increasing intensity and coverage of
snow showers, with snowfall rates of at least 1"/hour becoming
likely in the most favored northwest-facing slopes along the TN
border. Additional snowfall totals (from 18Z on) of 3-6 inches are
expected above 3500` in the current Winter Wx Advisory area, with
additional amounts of 5-10" forecast across the high elevations
of the Smokies, where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect.

Perhaps the main concern going forward will be to what extent snow
showers will escape the containment of the current Warning/Advisory
areas...as increasing coverage and intensity of showers means
at least scattered snow showers will spill south and east toward
the Blue Ridge escarpment. 1-3" of accumulation may become common
across portions of northern Buncombe as well as the high elevations
of Jackson, Macon, and Rabun Counties, with spotty/scattered
instances of 1-3" south and east of there...depending upon where
snow showers track. These accumulations aren`t enough to warrant
an expansion of any Advisories, but Advisory-level snowfall can
be expected on localized basis in the mountains counties outside
of the WSW. Flurries and light snow showers are also expected to
develop outside the mtns this evening, with some spotty dustings
possible across the northern foothills and northeast Piedmont of NC.

Otherwise, winds will remain gusty...and will actually increase
across the mountains this evening in the wake of the trough
axis. Gusts of 40-50 mph can be expected across the high
elevations and the NW flow downslope areas off the eastern Blue
Ridge escarpment, but coverage/persistence of Wind Advisory-level
gusts are expected to be insufficient to warrant any headlines. Wind
chill values in the single digits are expected in most locations
above 3000 feet or so tonight, with sub-zero values expected
above 5000 feet or so. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the
Piedmont/foothills tonight...where a hard freeze is expected with
min temps mainly in the mid-20s. Snow showers are expected to taper
off to no worse than flurries in the NW flow areas by sunrise Tue,
giving way to a dry and cool afternoon with diminishing winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1233 PM EST Monday: Weak cyclonic flow aloft remains
in place through a good chunk of the short-term period. A weak
shortwave traversing within the mean flow over the Great Lakes and
northeastern CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday will send a very
weak, diffuse frontal boundary through the area. This will turn
our winds to a more west-northwesterly direction and actually
help to modify the airmass quicker with a developing downslope
component. Afternoon highs for Wednesday should rebound quite
nicely compared to Monday and Tuesday, with values only slightly
below-normal (instead of 15-20 degrees below normal). Airmass
modification continues into Thursday as temperatures continue to
warm, with gradual height rises aloft and surface high in control
over the southeastern CONUS. In turn, RH values will lower
and could start to elevate fire weather concerns. Otherwise,
afternoon highs on Thursday will be near-normal and expect ~30
degree diurnal cycles between the afternoon highs and overnight
lows during the middle part of the week with mostly clear skies
and decent radiational cooling during the nighttime periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Monday: Building upper ridge over the central
CONUS slowly migrates to the area late in the workweek through
the weekend as surface high remains over the southeastern
CONUS. As a result, temperatures will continue to warm and even
return into the 70s by this weekend in locations outside of the
mountains. Deterministic models show the next frontal system
approaching the area by D7, but the overall confidence is low for
now, especially with the differences in timing and location of
the front. Otherwise, enjoy a nice stretch of warmer and drier
weather during most of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern this period will be
gusty winds and the potential for -SHSN this afternoon/evening,
primarily at KAVL. The potential is high enough to include Prob30s
for -SHSN/MVFR conditions at KAVL through 22Z, followed by a
tempo for such through 01Z. Cannot rule out a brief period of
flurries at KHKY and KCLT this evening, but this is unlikely and
not worthy of a TAF mention at this time. (Even if it happens, the
probability of reduced visby is low). Otherwise, this is mainly a
wind forecast, with VFR expected through the period. Generally W/NW
winds are expected through much of the period (more consistently
NW at KAVL). Gusts of 25-30 kts are expected through at least this
evening at KAVL, with gusts of 20-25 kts expected elsewhere this
afternoon. Gusts are forecast to relent outside of KAVL tonight,
but may pick up at 15-20 kts by late Tue morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected with gusty winds lingering through
midweek, mainly during the daylight hours. Winds weaken late in
the week, when the potential for early morning mountain valley
fog/low stratus will also increase.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-504-506-508-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-
     048>050-052-058.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ051.
SC...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ008>014-019-104>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL