Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
707 FXUS62 KGSP 040525 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1225 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures continue through across the region through the end of the week. A passing cold front could bring rain showers to the area over the weekend. A second, stronger front on Sunday, ushers in much colder temperatures for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1203 AM EST Tuesday: Looks like some classic Autumn weather for the region over the next 24 hours as we enjoy clear sky and light wind courtesy of sfc high pressure moving across the Carolinas while the upper pattern remains nearly-zonal and quiet. Temps will remain close to normal. If there is any controversy, it might be the afternoon RH. Profiles suggest that dewpoint will probably mix out to a greater degree than guidance would suggest, which could bring the min RH down close to 30 pct in some locations over the western Piedmont. Fortunately, wind will be light. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1205 AM EST Tuesday: Picking up on Wednesday, the weather overall remains quiet and unimpressive. Zonal flow aloft remains in place across the southern CONUS. An area of high pressure gets shoved southward as a weak surface low forms across the NE, but remains too far north to have any impact on the CWA. Guidance does increase winds as the tight pressure gradient sweeps through the area, especially to the north. Winds should diminish into Wednesday night and pick up again across the mountains Thursday night. None of these winds look to be impactful and well below any Wind Advisory criteria. However, model soundings depict strong subsidence aloft that could mix down RH values east of the mountains into the 30-40 percent range. A small concern for fire weather as winds are expected to be a bit gusty, 15-20 mph. As southerly flow returns, moisture also ticks up a tad. Temperatures steadily rise above normal through the end of the short term. Overnight temps also warm as the added moisture keeps freezing temps away for now. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1210 AM EST Tuesday: By the weekend, a pattern change commences. By Friday, model guidance indicates a strong upper low forming over central Canada and amplifies southward through the weekend. In response, a trough starts to dip down into the eastern half of the CONUS. Guidance develops a surface low over the Great Lakes and drags a frontal boundary across the southeast with some QPF response possible Friday night. Latest data increases the PoP chances. The higher rain chances look to be in the mountains (50- 80%) with a chance (30-50%) elsewhere. Though PoPs have increased, the QPF response as of now is nearly the same. The furthest NC mountains have about a 20% chance of seeing rainfall amounts greater than 0.5", which means there isn`t much of a signal for this front to bring much precipitation. Once this front passes, models turn to another front. This frontal boundary looks to be a much stronger cP airmass spilling into the CONUS from Canada, bringing colder temps and drier air at the end of the weekend. Long range models show a possibility for some sort of precip as there is a chance for some lingering moisture along the TN/NC border, but it`s way too early to pinpoint any details. Temperatures appear to be warmer and a tick above normal through Sunday night, ahead of the colder airmass. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period, with a small chance of low stratus or fog in the mtn valleys. The sfc high responsible for this quiet weather is expected to drift to the east over the next 24 hours, which should allow for an even greater chance that light wind would come around to S or SW by mid/late afternoon. Wind should go light again with sunset. As for clouds, perhaps only some thin cirrus. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through at least Thursday night. Mountain valley fog/low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...PM