433
FXUS62 KGSP 071151
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances return to the area Friday night and continue off
and on through early Sunday.  A strong cold front moves through on
Sunday, ushering in very cold weather Sunday night through Tuesday,
along with a chance for light snow showers in the mountains.
Temperatures slowly warm through through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EST Friday: Stratocu deck has formed pretty much as
expected and should linger across the escarpment and most of the
Piedmont thru midday. The sky cover grids were updated to reflect
the latest trends. No other major changes made with this update.

Otherwise, an upper-level shortwave trough will track from the
Central Plains to the Ohio Valley today, then reach the Central
Appalachians tonight. At the sfc, high pressure centered over the
Mid-Atlantic coastal waters will slide further offshore, while a
cold front pushes east into the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. A warm
front draped across the Tennessee Valley to the Georgia Coast will
begin to lift north this morning. Southerly flow atop this frontal
zone will produce a stratocu deck that is expected to expand across
most of the forecast area this morning. The clouds should scatter
out this aftn, just in time for thickening cirrus from the west. The
expected increase in cloud cover compared to yesterday should keep
max temps a category or so cooler, but still slightly above normal.

A band of convection is expected to develop out of ahead of the
approaching cold front to our west. With showers and possibly
some embedded tstms entering the NC mountains this evening. Bulk
shear of 50-60+ kt could support a linear mode with some gusty wind
potential. However, guidance shows basically no sbCAPE, with only
a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across the forecast area. There may
be enough forcing and CAPE to support showers surviving across the
terrain into the Piedmont overnight. The NBM still shows only slight
chc to low-end chc across the southeastern parts of the forecast
area. In any case, QPF looks limited and severe threat should
be low, given lack of instability. Lows will be held well above
normal under mostly cloudy skies and mixing ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1054 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Extremely limited potential for a severe storm or two on
Saturday afternoon.  Somewhat higher, but still limited, potential
for isolated severe storms on Sunday afternoon.

2) NW flow showers on Sunday will transition to NW flow snow across
the NC-TN border zones on Sunday night.

By Saturday morning, expect a subtle shortwave to be in place
over the western Tennessee Valley, and sliding quickly eastward
through the day.  Synoptic forcing looks less-than-impressive;
nonetheless, model soundings feature 200-400 J/kg sbCAPE colocated
with 25-35kts of deep shear.  However, most operational guidance
features remnants of a subsidence inversion at around the 700mb
level, which could make for an inhospitable convective environment
and effectively trounce deep convection, especially in the absence
of stronger instability, deeper moisture, or better forcing.
Thunder certainly cannot be ruled out, but the severe risk continues
to appear quite limited.

Saturday night, whatever showers/thunder wind up developing should
begin to die off and WAA should weaken significantly.  Though the
upper shortwave will migrate east of our CWA, there doesn`t appear
to be much of a surface reflection in the operational guidance;
if there is a true FROPA it`ll be weak, but it looks more like
whatever surface boundary exists will smear out just to our west.
This`ll maintain at least weak WAA across most of the area through
the overnight, preventing much temperature drop into Sunday morning.

Beginning before daybreak Sunday, lapse rates should begin to
gently increase in response to another, somewhat stronger shortwave
crossing the upper Ohio Valley and subtly decreasing heights across
especially the northern half of the CWA.  This`ll drive the surface
front still lingering to our west across the area, resulting in
the onset of strong CAA across the NC mountains by late morning.
This still looks like it could foster development of a shallow
unstable layer over the NC Piedmont...with some 500 J/kg sbCAPE or
more briefly appearing along the I-77 corridor...amid still-elevated
bulk shear beneath the shortwave.  So...nonzero threat of isolated
strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.  Meanwhile, NW flow
precipitation will already be underway across the mountains.
It should begin as rain, but owing to quickly-dropping temps within
the CAA layer, a transition to some snow Sunday night is expected,
mainly along the NC-TN border and at higher elevations in the
Smokies and Balsams.  At this time, accumulations look like they
should be limited...but it does indeed look like accumulating snow
is possible at higher elevations through Monday morning.  Gusty
winds are also expected within the CAA regime...but the latest
forecast suggests that only the higher elevations of the mountains
are likely to see Wind Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1138 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A very cold air mass settles in on Monday, resulting in a hard
freeze Monday night for most of the area.

2) Quiet conditions persist for the remainder of the period.

Robust trough axis spanning most of the Eastern Seaboard will
push across the Carolinas on Monday, allowing heights to rebound.
Some wraparound moisture (or even, in a few ensemble members,
an actual closed circulation) may continue through the day
Monday...such that some continuing precipitation, mainly show,
will persist on Monday across the mountains, before tapering off
Monday night as drier air works in behind the system.

Still high confidence on a hard freeze Monday night/Tuesday morning
- with even the warmer LREF members dropping most or all of the
forecast area below freezing.  Would still expect a Freeze Watch to
be issued over the weekend barring a major change to the forecast.
Gusty winds will continue into Tuesday...before the air mass settles
and begins to modify.  Mostly clear conditions expected through
the remainder of the extended, with temperatures slowly moderating
and returning to near-normal by the end of the D7 forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A band of stratocu can be seen on satellite
imagery roughly along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and east into
the foothills. These clouds have been slowly expanding east into
the Piedmont. Guidance still shows the Piedmont filling in with
mainly MVFR cigs after daybreak, so have MVFR developing at all
sites east of the mountains thru the morning hours. These clouds
should start lifting and scattering out around 17z to VFR cu and
BKN cirrus for the aftn. S to SW wind picks up through the day,
with low-end gusts possible during the afternoon, especially at
KAVL. A band of convection is expected to enter the NC mountains
ahead of an approaching cold front this evening. This activity
will likely weaken and break up into scattered showers overnight
as it crosses the mountains with a passing front. However, the
latest guidance shows at least high enough chances for PROB30 at
all sites. Precip should taper off/push east of the area by 12z Sat.

Outlook: Rain chances and associated restrictions continues thru
the weekend, as another cold front approaches from the west. Low
clouds and precipitation may linger Monday across the mountains. Dry
conditions return Tuesday. Gusty winds develop Sunday ahead of
the second front and linger thru Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK