083
FXUS62 KGSP 241044
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
544 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry but mild high pressure remains over the area today. A moist cold
front crosses the area Tuesday into Wednesday, producing widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. Much colder temperatures arrive
behind it and continue into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1111 PM Sunday: A highly perturbed split flow patterns
continues to dominate the synoptic pattern across the country with a
northern stream wave train draped from the Pacific Northwest to New
England while a southern stream closed upper low is lifting across
the Great Plains. At the surface, a sprawling 1030mb high will move
across the Appalachians through the early morning hours and
eventually offshore Monday afternoon and evening. The majority of
the near term period will remain benign with very efficient
radiational cooling through the morning. Near seasonable
temperatures finally return with afternoon highs in the low to upper
60s across much of the area. By this afternoon and tonight, cloud
cover will increase in advance of the southern stream wave which
will have evolved into an open shortwave trough as it passes through
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Low-level mass response to a deepening
cyclone over the upper Midwest will draw a warm sector into the
southeast states as height falls overspread the area. This, in
conjunction with a healthy low-level jet, will be the impetus for
the initiation of deep convection over the Lower Mississippi Valley
this afternoon into tonight. The 00z suite of CAMs is in good
agreement that a band of convection will push across Alabama into
north Georgia tonight with the leading edge of showers/stratiform
precipitation encroaching on the mountains by daybreak Tuesday
morning. In addition, a few isolated warm advection showers aided by
isentropic ascent will be possible across the Upstate and southern
Blue Ridge escarpment. The forecast thus reflects an increase in
rain chances at the end of the period with the majority of the
precipitation expected to move in after sunrise Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 AM EST Monday: Guidance has trended away from the severe
storm potential that it had trended toward last night. They have not
trended away from precip chances however. The overall forecast
scenario remains similar. A short wave crosses the area in deep
southwesterly flow Tuesday. This brings deep moisture and good
forcing into the area. A warm front approaches from the south as a
cold front approaches from the west. A weak CAD develops as the
precip moves in through the day. Precip chances continue overnight
as the cold front moves into the area pushed by a short wave
rotating around an upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Tonight`s ops
and ensemble guidance show little to no chance of surface or muCAPE
greater than 500 J/kg. In fact, they show little sbCAPE at all with
muCAPE 300 J/kg or less. The forcing and weak instability will be
enough for some thunderstorms, especially Tue nite, but really
decreases the severe storm chance, even with bulk shear in the 50 kt
range. Overall QPF amounts have come down as well. Should be in the
beneficial rainfall range with only a very low flood threat given
the dry antecedent conditions.

The guidance has also speed up the cold front with precip tapering
off quickly Wednesday morning as the front moves east of the area.
This also keeps any developing instability, and secondary severe
storm threat, to our east. Dry and windy conditions develop Wed and
Wed nite.

Highs Tuesday will be highly influenced by the weak wedge which
makes the forecast tricky. Still, temps look to be above normal even
in the heart of the wedge, but could be well above normal outside of
it. Lows Tuesday nite will be around 20 degrees above normal. Highs
Wed actually warm to 10 to 15 degrees above normal, typical of the
day after a CAD before the cold air begins moving in behind the cold
front. Cold air comes rushing in Wed nite with lows near to 5
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Monday: Cold and dry high pressure slowly builds
into the area through Saturday. Highs fall to 5 to 10 degrees below
normal by Friday and Saturday with lows falling to around 10 degrees
below normal. Windy to breezy conditions will continue through
Friday before wind diminishes as the center of high pressure moves
in. A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday. The Canadian is
the only ops model with precip developing by late Sunday. The
ensemble means do show light precip moving in. For now, have kept the
national blend showing low end chance precip developing by
afternoon. Lows Sunday morning warm to a few degrees below normal
with highs near to 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
majority of the TAF period at all terminals. Surface high pressure
slides across the region today keeping benign weather in place with
light winds. Wind direction will shift through the day starting out
of the north this morning and then shifting to out of the east and
then southeast. Cloud cover will also increase, but cloud bases will
remain high-based through much of the period with no restrictions.
The exception will be early Tuesday morning as a deck of low stratus
builds into the area as moisture increases ahead of an approaching
storm system. This will bring MVFR ceilings into KAND and after 12z
at KCLT.

Outlook: Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible early
Tuesday. Expect numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
with associated restrictions Tuesday into Wednesday as a moist cold
front moves thru the area. Drier and predominantly VFR conditions
should return by late Wednesday and linger through late week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW