011
FXUS62 KGSP 261835
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure arrives for Thanksgiving and the weekend from
central Canada. Another cold front arrives Sunday with a secondary
low pressure system on Tuesday. This may result in lingering
precipitation chances through the first half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday: A digging upper trough will gradually
propagate eastward from the Upper Great Lakes into western Quebec as
broad cyclonic flow aloft settles over the eastern CONUS through the
near term. The attendant cold front is currently encroaching the
NC/TN border, which will make a full fropa across the CWFA later
this evening. Strong CAA behind the front will create a sharp
pressure gradient across the mountains and lead to advisory level
gusts, so the current Wind Advisory through noon Thursday is well
placed as gusts of 45-55 mph is possible at elevations above 3500`
in the northern mountains. Weak downsloping and compressional
heating ahead of the front will allow afternoon highs to reach 6-12
degrees above normal and help to delay the onset of CAA behind the
front, especially outside of the mountains. CAA settles in across
the CWFA overnight with lows a category or so below normal with
gusty winds. Gusty winds will linger throughout the day Thursday as
deep boundary layer mixing will tap into the higher gusts at the top
of the layer and mix down a few stronger gusts at the surface,
especially during the afternoon. Some high clouds may develop during
the day as an area of scattered DPVA moves overhead across the area.
However, low-levels will be bone dry and dewpoints are expected to
crash, especially with deep mixing despite somewhat saturated mid-
levels. RH values should drop to or below 30%, but recent precip
should preclude any Fire Danger Statements at this time, but that
may change between now and overnight tonight. Afternoon highs will
run 4-8 degrees below normal for Thursday with anomalously low
thicknesses in place and continued CAA within a post-frontal regime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday:

Key Message: Cold and dry conditions continue through the short term

A cold and very dry air mass will remain in place through Friday
and Saturday. Forecast temperatures will generally run ten to
fifteen degrees below normal through the period. The drop will
feel especially sharp given the eight day stretch of above normal
temperatures that preceded this pattern.

NBM ensemble spread remains small for daytime highs, with only a
two to three degree difference between the twenty fifth and seventy
fifth percentiles for both Friday and Saturday. This supports high
confidence in below normal but relatively uniform temperatures
during the day.

Overnight lows are slightly more uncertain due to questions
regarding how efficiently winds decouple, especially across the
Foothills where NBM spread for MinT ranges from three to five
degrees Thursday night. Even if winds remain elevated enough
to limit radiational cooling somewhat, confidence is high that
temperatures will fall below freezing across nearly the entire
forecast area. NBM probabilities of MinT below 28 degrees range from
seventy to one hundred percent across all areas except the urban
core of Charlotte and portions of the Upper Savannah River Basin.

High pressure centered overhead Friday night will bring ideal
radiational cooling conditions under clear skies and calm
winds. This will likely be the coldest night of the upcoming week,
with lows falling into the teens across the mountains and the
lower to mid twenties across the Foothills and Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Wednesday:

Key Message 1: Unsettled weather returns late this weekend into
early next week

High pressure will retreat quickly off the East Coast Saturday
night. Upstream, an upper trough moving out of the Pacific
Northwest will phase with a digging Alberta clipper as it reaches
the Intermountain West Friday night. This combined system will then
phase with a second shortwave digging out of central Canada. The
resulting evolution favors a Great Lakes cutter scenario with the
surface low tracking well to our north and west this weekend.

Although the deeper synoptic lift will pass north of the region,
moisture advection from the Gulf will support a chance of light
overrunning precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday ahead
of the cold front. Forecast trends have shifted toward lower PoPs
and QPF with this initial round. A brief wintry mix at the onset
cannot be completely ruled out across the higher elevations of the
NC mountains and portions of the northern Foothills north of I 40,
where cold air damming and wet bulb cooling may hold temperatures
near freezing. However, NBM probabilities for snow or freezing
rain remain less than ten percent, and any wintry component would
be brief and confined to the terrain if it occurs at all.


Key Message 2: Increasing rain chances Monday and Tuesday with
potential for lingering cold air

There remains uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
on Monday, as solutions vary between a clean frontal passage and
a stalled boundary lingering over the region. The NBM maintains
low chance PoPs Monday, with precipitation expected to fall as rain.

Confidence is increasing in a secondary wave of low pressure
developing along the Gulf Coast and tracking northeast along the
boundary Monday night into Tuesday. This wave would bring a more
widespread and heavier round of rainfall to the region. With high
pressure positioned to the northeast during this period, the setup
may reinforce a cold air damming wedge across western NC. If the
wedge persists or strengthens, elevated concern would arise for
freezing rain potential in climatologically favored locations such
as the northern mountains and northern Foothills. Current ensemble
probabilities remain low, but the pattern warrants monitoring.

In the wake of the departing wave, wrap around northwest flow snow
may develop across the highest elevations late Tuesday or later,
depending on the speed of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period as the low stratus deck from earlier has fully scattered
and lifted across the terminals. Low-end gusts from the southwest
are expected through this afternoon, ahead of an encroaching cold
front. Winds will toggle to a northwesterly component behind the
front as it pushes through the area throughout the evening. Gusty
winds will accompany the front and gradual subside by the overnight
period, with the exception of KAVL which will keep a gusty 20-30
kt wind through tomorrow. A few upper-level clouds will swing
across the region during the daytime period Thursday, but dry
and VFR conditions will prevail with some low-end gusts possible
Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: Drier and predominantly VFR conditions should linger
through most of the week. A storm system will approach the area
by the latter half of the weekend and will bring the next chance
for flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...CAC