151
FXUS62 KGSP 281843
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal high temperatures stick around through next week. Dry
and cold high pressure remains in control through Saturday before a
cold front brings precipitation chances Sunday. Drier conditions
develop briefly Monday before a low pressure system from the Gulf
brings better precipitation chances Monday night and Tuesday. Dry
high pressure returns Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Friday...

Key Message 1: Light winds diminish this evening as high pressure
builds in.

Key Message 2: Coldest night of the season expected tonight.

Key Message 3: Continued cold and dry Saturday with temperatures
well below normal.


A sprawling 1034 mb surface high centered over western Illinois
continues to extend southeastward across the Mid and Lower
Mississippi Valley at midday. Farther east, a lee trough is analyzed
along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Our region remains
on the eastern flank of the high, situated between the ridge
axis to the west and the lee trough to the east. This setup has
maintained breezy west to north winds through early afternoon. Winds
will steadily weaken toward sunset as the surface trough shifts
downstream and the high builds eastward, producing a relaxing
pressure gradient across the Carolinas and northeast Georgia.

Tonight, the center of the high passes just north of the area,
supporting favorable radiational cooling conditions. High clouds
will stream overhead late, but they should have minimal impact on
temperatures. Ensemble temperature guidance is in good agreement,
with only a three degree spread between the NBM twenty fifth and
seventy fifth percentiles for forecast lows. A cold airmass and
ideal cooling conditions will set the stage for the coldest night
of the season thus far.

Lows are expected to fall into the teens across the mountains and
the lower to mid twenties across the Foothills and Piedmont. The
table below compares each sites previously observed coldest
temperature (1st column) to the deterministic forecast low
temperature tonight (2nd column), and the NBM ensemble probabilities
that tonight will be colder than the seasons current coldest
night (3rd column).

Asheville, NC:  23F (11/11) | 22F | 100 percent
Charlotte, NC:  29F (11/11) | 27F | 100 percent
Hickory, NC:    26F (11/11) | 23F | 90 percent
Greenville, SC: 25F (11/11) | 25F | 75 percent
Anderson, SC:   26F (11/11) | 27F | 60 percent

High pressure shifts east on Saturday and moves toward the Mid
Atlantic coast, but it will continue to control our weather. A
weak southerly return flow develops by afternoon as warmer air
begins to approach from the southwest. However, the warm
advection arrives slowly, so highs on Saturday should be similar
to today, mainly mid to upper 40s outside the mountains with
30s at higher elevations. Ensemble temperature spread remains
small, with a two to three degree difference between the twenty
fifth and seventy fifth percentiles.

For dewpoints, the forecast blends the NBM twenty fifth percentile
with time-lagged HRRR guidance, which is currently handling moisture
fields well. A deep mixed layer should promote downward mixing of
drier air again this afternoon and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 11 am EST Friday:

Key message: Brief period of wintry precip remains possible in
portions of the mountains and possibly NW NC Piedmont late Saturday
night into Sunday morning ahead of a weak cold front.

SW flow remains progged to ramp up Saturday evening, along and
downstream of approaching weak baroclinic zone. 45 kt LLJ will
translate atop the cwfa after 06Z Sunday promoting stout winds
at higher elevations. Light pcpn should be initially forced by the
aforementioned LLJ, and the resultant diabatic cooling toward
critical wet bulb temperatures will give rise to the chances for
pockets of freezing rain to develop mainly in the mountains by early
Sunday morning.  Given the transient nature of the parent sfc hipres
and overall light nature of the pcpn, by the time precip becomes
more likely during the day Sunday, temps in most areas should be
able to warm above freezing.  With the frontolytic nature of the
cold front, numerous showers Sunday morning will give way to
diminishing chances in the afternoon.

Sfc ridging looks to reassert itself on Monday with a CAD regime
seeming more likely to develop by the end of the day.  We will be
watching for the likelihood of western gulf cyclogenesis on Monday
and the quick return of SW flow and moisture into the Southern
Appalachians. Thicker cloudiness remains fcst to overspread the
cwfa, and in concert with chilly NE sfc flow, maximum temperatures
will be 8-10 Deg F below the December 1st normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1130 am EST Friday:

Key message 1: Precipitation redeveloping by Monday night. There
remains the threat of a period of wintry weather for the NC
mountains/foothills and NW NC Piedmont.  Rain tapers off Tuesday
afternoon, perhaps ending as a period of snow in the high mountains.

Ongoing high likelihood that the region will receive a round of
briefly heavy precipitation at some point late Monday night and/or
Tuesday as deepening Miller type A low affects the Southern
Appalachians. Based on the 28/12Z NBM, The NC mountains northeast of
the French Broad Valley, and parts of the NC Piedmont along and
north of I-40 remain the locations where the better chances exist
for a period of of wintry mix, with the highest p-type probability
being fzra.

Dry-slot looks to punch through before 00z Wednesday bringing a fast
end to widespread pcpn although cooling temps within the TN border
counties will support a transition to snow showers there on the back
side of the system.

Key message 2: Dry high pressure should return by late Tuesday
night, with daytime temps trending milder Wed and Thu.  Perhaps next
round of rain will be on Friday.

Sunshine returns on Wednesday as high pressure builds atop the
region with moderating return flow developing Thursday.  Gulf
moisture tap may return pcpn to the region on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are
expected through the period. Northwest winds, varying between north
and west, have begun to weaken early this afternoon. A few gusts
of 14 to 18 kt remain possible for the first few hours of the
18Z TAF cycle, but mixing will diminish quickly between 20Z and
22Z. Sustained winds will ease to around 5 kt or less by sunset,
with light and variable winds expected overnight.

Skies will remain SKC through late afternoon, followed by increasing
cirrus from the west this evening. High clouds will gradually
thicken overnight and into Saturday morning. A few patches of
altocumulus may develop late, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for mention until after daybreak Saturday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night despite
increasing cloud cover. Rain chances return on Sunday with potential
sub VFR restrictions. A brief period of drier weather is expected
Monday before another round of rain and restrictions arrives
Tuesday. Dry and mainly VFR conditions should return Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JRK