216
FXUS62 KGSP 071624
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1124 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance arrives late tonight and brings the
potential for light precipitation through Monday. Expect a dry and
chilly Tuesday. Near normal temperatures return Wednesday ahead of a
cold front which arrives late in the week.  Expect chances of
precipitation ahead of the cold front then much cooler temperatures
by the end of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message 1: Dry and warmer (but still below normal) today despite
cloud cover sticking around.

Let both the Freezing Fog Advisory and Dense Fog Advisory expire as
visibilities have mostly lifted above one-quarter mile as of 11 AM.
Some patchy dense fog continues across the eastern SC Upstate and
southern NC Piedmont this morning but this should lift within the
next hour. Otherwise, surface high pressure remains overhead through
late this evening while an upper trough approaches out of the west.
The surface ridge will keep dry conditions around through late this
evening. Although cloud cover sticks around east of the mountains
and gradually increase across the mountains today, highs will be
warmer compared to yesterday, but will still end up a few to several
degrees below normal for most locations. Highs will reach into the
upper 40s to mid 50s across the mountain valleys and east of the
mountains. Highs across the higher elevations will reach into the
lower to mid 40s.

Key Message 2: A weak surface wave develops to our southwest late
this evening before tracking across the forecast area tonight into
daybreak Monday and bringing light snow accumulations to portions of
the North Carolina mountains. A cold rain is expected elsewhere.

The upper trough will push across the forecast area as the sfc high
weakens in response to a weak surface wave tracking across the
forecast area overnight into daybreak Monday. This will allow
precipitation chances to return from west to east towards the end of
the period. Temperatures will remain above freezing across the
mountain valleys and for areas east of the mountains so a cold rain
can be expected across these locations. However, temperatures will
fall near or below freezing across elevations above 3,500 feet
overnight so light snow can be expected. Snow accumulations will be
light overnight into early Monday morning, only ranging from a few
tenths of an inch. However, locations in the Smokies along the NC/TN
border could see up to half and inch of snowfall by daybreak Monday.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Avery County as well as
elevations above 3,500 ft in Yancey and Mitchell Counties starting
at 1 AM Monday to account for the onset of snow and will run through
1 AM Tuesday to account for the offset of snow (see the short term
for more details regarding the remainder of the event). With cloud
cover lingering through daybreak Monday, lows will end up a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Light snow tapers off Monday night into Tuesday morning.

2) Breezy winds on Wednesday, especially over the mountains.

As of 1205 PM EST Sunday: Monday night, the departing shortwave and
lingering snowfall should taper off throughout the night. Though the
bulk of snowfall is expected, cannot rule out a few bursts of flakes
still occurring east of the mountains, especially in the NC
Piedmont. The colder air keeps snow probabilities in this area
around 10-20% through Tuesday morning. Once the winter mix tapers
off,  Guidance also continues to signal increased wind speeds the
high pressure keeps the weather quiet through the remainder of the
period. Meanwhile,  a strong area of low pressure churns over Canada
and dips southward, creating a tighter pressure gradient closer to
the CWA. Currently, there is about a 30-40% chance of wind gusts
greater than 35 mph at the higher elevations of the mountains. This
will likely change depending on how far south the low dips. If it
drops further south, the winds are likely to increase. At this time,
winds remain well below any Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures on
Tuesday remain below normal before rebounding to near normal on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Low confidence in precip associated with a cold front that moves
through late in the week.

2) A potential colder period next weekend with temperatures running
around 15 degrees below normal.

As of 1215 PM EST Sunday: Picking up on Wednesday night, an area of
low pressure churns across the Great Lakes region, bringing a tight
pressure gradient southward toward the region. Guidance has trended
even drier in terms of precip, so a spotty PoP of 15-20% through
Thursday morning over the mountains. Any gusty winds also look to
diminish by Thursday. The next system lines up for the end of the
week and into the weekend as a strengthening trough sets up over the
eastern CONUS and brings NW flow aloft. This is a typical deep
winter pattern occurring much earlier in the season, which can
signal for a potential NW snow event over the mountains. However, a
lot can and will change from now through the potential event.
Guidance has been trending drier as the strong cP airmass breaks
containment from the north and plunges into the central and eastern
CONUS. The potential cold front is likely to increase precipitation
chances, but will depend on how much moisture is retained once the
cold, dry air arrives. So far, guidance is trending more toward a
drier front with reduced precip chances. It remains too far out on
the horizon to gather much of the details. As for temperatures,
expect daily highs to be near normal until the frontal boundary
comes through, dipping temps well below normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Any lingering fog/low stratus should
gradually lift late this morning into early this afternoon, but
confidence remains fairly low that most sites will return to
VFR before mid to late afternoon today. Some areas may not sct
out completely before MVFR to IFR cigs, and to a lesser extent,
MVFR visby return again later this evening. Rain chances
increase towards the end of the taf period early Monday with
PROB30s for RA at all taf sites beginning around 08 to 10z.
Expect prevailing RA to begin at KAVL by roughly 08z Monday,
with KCLT following suit by roughly 14z. Otherwise, winds should
remain light to calm thru most of the period, with some sites
favoring a S to SE direc- tion this afternoon.

Outlook: A low pressure system will bring precip and restrictions
late Sunday night into Monday. Dry high pressure is expected to
spread back over the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday
     for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT