814
FXUS62 KGSP 301402
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
902 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal high temperatures stick around this week. A cold front
brings light precipitation today before drier conditions develop
briefly Monday. A low pressure system from the Gulf brings better
precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday. Dry high pressure
returns Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 904 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Precipitation continues through the morning ahead of an advancing
cold front that sweeps across the area this afternoon.

2) Temps still hovering around 32F across some parts of the nrn
mountains.

3) Winter Weather Advisory extended until 10 am.

Sfc obs at 14Z indicate several pockets of air around 30-32F from
Burnsville to Spruce Pine and along the Escarpment. Think it best to
extend the Advisory for another hour to give those locations time
to warm up, which should be on track as warm advection continues
across the region. Patches of light precip will continue to move
across the area ahead of the cold front, so in theory some light
icing remains possible.

By late morning, warming temperatures will halt freezing rain,
such that an all-rain forecast is warranted everywhere by 10 AM.
By this time, a weak z500 shortwave will be located just west
of the NC-TN state line, with the attendant cold front located
somewhere in the mid/east Tennessee Valley.  Following a lull in
precip intensity during late morning/early afternoon, scattered
light rainfall will push out into the low terrain as the front
crosses the region through late this afternoon, with drying taking
place from west to east through the day.  By late this evening,
the entire forecast area should be dry, apart from some isolated
NW flow showers...though between limited moisture to begin with,
and fairly weak NW winds, there`s barely any signal for that in
the latest hi-res guidance.  CAA behind the front will be weak and
short-lived overnight, with a steady but not-so-strong NW wind and
temperatures dropping back into the mid-20s at higher elevations
and parts of the I-40 corridor, and low- to mid-30s across the
Upstate and Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of midnight Sunday morning:

Key message: Confidence increasing for accumulating wintry precip in
the northern mountains and eastern Escarpment areas, and in very high
elevations of the southwest mountains, Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

Still expecting dry high pressure to migrate east of the Appalachians
Monday and center over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast by late
evening. Stalled front to our south will be reactivated as shortwave
crosses the Mississippi Valley late Monday, leading to onset of
precip from south to north across the area overnight. The longer
range CAMs suggest very light precip could begin as soon as 00z Tue
in our far southwest mountains and Savannah Valley, with moistening
occurring quickly from the top down over the sfc high; precip is
likely to have begun over the western two-thirds of the CWA by
midnight Tuesday.

Cloud cover moving in Monday afternoon should inhibit nocturnal
cooling, but of course precip will induce diabatic cooling and some
snow/sleet could be seen at onset where temps are sufficiently close
to freezing, which should be most of the mountains. High ridges of
the Smokies/Balsams and nearby ranges SW of the French Broad however
do look likely to cool below freezing with the diabatic cooling, and
with the development of the warm nose aloft via WAA ahead of the
approaching system, those areas will transition to freezing rain for
a time. However, the valleys and most populated areas in the SW
mountains look to remain above freezing overnight and wintry
accumulation there is likely to be zero. Rain totals of 1 to 1.5"
with isolated spots of 2" or more are forecast for most of the
Piedmont with the higher amounts in the usual areas south of the
Escarpment near the southern border of NC.

There remains strong consensus for the northern mountains and
foothills (NE of the French Broad) to lock in subfreezing
temperatures for most or all of the night as in-situ CAD develops.
Temps will hover near or just below freezing below the Escarpment
such that accumulating ice/sleet/snow may occur in a few areas as far
south as NE Henderson County (Bearwallow, Bat Cave, etc.) Raw models
do depict many of these areas warming before daybreak and thus the
event may prove short-lived, especially those areas farther south.
Higher elevations look particularly likely to see sfc temps warm
above freezing although profiles would still support snow and perhaps
some sleet in addition to rain. We were especially careful with temp
trends to try to hone in amounts, with the net result being ice/snow
totals that are solidly supportive of a Winter Wx Advisory, although
we need to wait a little closer to onset to incorporate more hi-res
guidance. WWA decision probably will be made Sunday night, but won`t
rule out issuance on day shift today.

Temps look likely to have warmed above freezing by 12z Tue, by which
time PoPs are forecast to be in decline east of the mountains.
Development of CAA Tuesday afternoon should turn precip over to snow
on the higher peaks near the TN border, where light accumulation is
not out of the question late afternoon into evening. Chances fall
below slight-chance by midnight.  Several degrees colder Tue night
versus the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 AM Sun:

Key message 1: Dry weather and moderating temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

Quasi-zonal upper pattern returns briefly Tue night and early Wed
with high pressure migrating across the Southeast. The high is
comparatively weak to the previous two highs. Winds will be light
Wednesday but skies trend clear, and temps rebound slightly. Mid to
upper level flow turns slightly cyclonic Wed afternoon; a weak, dry
cold front looks to arrive by Thu morning. That should introduce some
high altitude cloud cover across the area and upslope clouds and
perhaps a few flurries along the TN border at that time. East of the
mountains, downslope flow will help bring temps almost back to normal
for Thursday afternoon.

Key message 2: Another wintry precip event may unfold for part of the
area at some point between Thursday night and Friday night.
Confidence remains low.

A 1030mb+ continental high will migrate out of the Midwest and set up
over the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night, as the weak front settles
near or south of the I-20 corridor. A shortwave will move thru the
central CONUS Thursday night into early Friday and induce
cyclogenesis along the front--sound familiar? Models remain in
disagreement as to when and where the cyclogenesis and frontal
activation occurs. The operational GFS develops precip across the TN
Valley and Carolinas before daybreak Friday, whereas the 30/00z Euro
depicts a deeper and accordingly slower shortwave, delaying onset of
precip until Friday afternoon. The GDPS is in the middle but has
stayed closer to the Euro. Ensemble members also bear some spread.

Regardless of the timing, it would appear likely in-situ CAD would
develop again and portions of the mountains/foothills stand a chance
for more wintry weather accumulation. The GFS solution does show
mostly snow Friday morning, even outside the mountains; the other
solutions depict freezing rain mainly in the mountains--again mainly
Friday night. A mixed precip mention did fall out of the forecast
process over parts of the area Friday morning, but in light of the
forecast range and nearer-term weather impacts, PoPs were kept to
slight-chance for most of that activity.  A smaller area of higher
FZRA chances are forecast Friday night, mainly in the mountains and
north of I-40, which appears reasonable.  The forecast for Thursday
looks more likely to change, although overall it certainly can be
said the forecast is low-confidence from Thu night through early
Saturday. Friday could prove very cold if precip does develop, with
temps not making it past the lower 40s over most of the area, and
perhaps remaining below freezing in portions of the mountains.

The GFS actually forecasts yet another system developing in the lower
MS Valley on Saturday, and with the Euro also showing continuing
precip from the Miller-A, moderate PoPs remain thru the end of the
period, albeit with warmer temps Saturday with the CAD potentially
eroding.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR virtually everywhere this morning,
with isolated IFR in the Little Tennessee Valley more or less as
expected.  Scattered rainfall still draped across the NC mountains
and parts of the Foothills.  Some FZRA is likely occurring in parts
of the Blue Ridge...but NO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES.  Rather, rain will remain all-liquid and hit
somewhat of a lull by mid-morning, before shifting eastward and
picking up some steam again going into the afternoon.  For the
Upstate terminals, a few hours of prevailing -RA are carried
in the early afternoon, with gradually decreasing confidence on
additional rain throughout the day.  At KCLT, went with VCSH/PROB30
for the majority of the day.  MVFR ceilings are expected to persist
for most/all of this period.  Gradual drying and improvement is
expected by mid- to late-afternoon, with a return to VFR at all
terminals Sunday evening.  Winds will remain light overnight,
picking up out of the WSW during the day, then briefly becoming
WNW by late afternoon/evening, more or less concurrent with the
end of precip and restrictions.  VFR conditions and light NE winds
will continue into the first part of the day Monday.

Outlook: VFR conditions should persist through Monday.  Another
round of rain and associated restrictions is expected Tuesday,
before dry and mainly VFR conditions return Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...MPR/PM
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...MPR