Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
346 FXUS61 KGYX 011805 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 205 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through the rest of the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. A series of shortwave troughs move through next week, bringing generally cool and at times unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure continues to build into New England through the overnight hours. Scattered rain and snow showers across the higher terrain gradually decrease in coverage through the overnight hours as the high builds in. Winds also steadily ease through the overnight hours, dropping off most quickly through the evening. With the colder airmass in place, lows drop into the 20s in most spots tonight, with lows around freezing along the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow looks to bring similar temperatures to today, but with less wind and more sunshine, allowing it to feel warmer than today. The high pressure center crosses south of New England during the daytime, with the ridge axis moving through the area. Sunday night looks slightly cooler than tonight as more radiational cooling is expected. Lows drop into the 20s again across the interior, and to near 30 along the coast. Otherwise the night looks quiet as the high pressure center drifts east of New England. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message: An active and progressive pattern will bring multiple chances of showers through the long term period. Amounts should generally be light. Forecast Details: We start off the long term in southwest flow aloft as a northern stream trough approaches from the west. Monday will be dry during the day with normal to slightly above normal highs for this time of year, mainly in the lower 50s to the lower 60s. That being said, we will see increasing clouds through the day which may keep temperatures in check a little bit. The trough axis approaches Monday evening along with cold front, increasing precipitation chances (50 to 80 percent) through the night. While precipitation will be widespread, the best chances will generally be across the north. However, even here, NBM probabilities only max out in the 20 to 40 percent range for greater than a half inch of liquid precipitation. Some snow will likely mix in over the mountains but any accumulation will be light. Precipitation chances will diminish Tuesday morning as the trough moves out quickly to the east but a few showers may linger through the day, especially across the mountains. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, in the mid 30s to the upper 40s in the mountains, and in the 50s over the foothills down to the coast. Westerly winds will also be quite breezy behind the front through the afternoon when we could see some sustained values in the 20 to 25 mph range and gusts to 35 mph. Wednesday continues to look mostly dry during the day as low amplitude ridging moves through the region quickly. Highs will be similar to Tuesday but maybe just a touch warmer. The next trough/front then approaches Wednesday night leading to more precipitation chances. There is currently good agreement in the guidance that a shortwave will move through the region, but the exact track of the low and heavier precipitation remains fairly uncertain. Either way, total amounts also look fairly light with this system with only low to medium probabilities for greater than a half inch of liquid. Most of the precipitation will move out by Thursday morning, but lingering showers will remain possible through the day on Thursday. Finally, another trough approaches later in the day on Friday into Saturday but details regarding scope and timing remain very uncertain this far out. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...MVFR ceilings likely continue in HIE through Sunday morning. VFR conditions prevail elsewhere through tomorrow night. Westerly wind gusts of around 25-30kt steadily diminish this evening. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected through the day Monday. A disturbance will then cross the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing scattered showers and likely at least MVFR ceilings. We should see a return to VFR conditions Tuesday with an increase in wind gusts to around 30 knots. Wednesday looks to remain VFR at least through the day with lighter gusts. Another disturbance may approach Wedensday night with similarly lower ceilings and showers. && .MARINE... Short Term...Westerly gales continue across the waters into this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Conditions fall to SCA levels by late evening, and continue through daybreak tomorrow. Seas continue to lower through the day on Sunday and Sunday night. Long Term...Conditions should remain below SCA criteria through the day on Monday. A disturbance then approaches Monday night, leading to increasing wind gusts and building seas through Tuesday night. There may be a break in SCA conditions Wednesday through Wednesday night, but another disturbance crosses, bringing SCA winds and seas back for Thursday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Hargrove