970
FXUS61 KGYX 150539
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1239 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Our next system will slice across Ontario and Quebec late
today and tonight bringing widespread precipitation, but for a
relatively brief period. To the north of the track some snow
accumulation is likely, along the track some wintry mix
including light freezing rain, and south of the track will stay
mostly rain. Once precipitation moves out it will get gusty as
westerly winds pick up. There will also be another round of
mountain snow showers into at least Monday. High pressure moves
in for the second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A fair weather day is expected today as weak high pressure moves
across New England. Mostly sunny skies will give way to
increasing clouds during the afternoon as a fast-ving low
pressure system approaches from the west. Highs should make it
to around 40 degrees at lower elevations with 30s in the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fast moving short wave trough approaches from the WNW this
evening as a warm air advection pattern commences. As SFC low
pressure approaches from the Great Lakes, a secondary low
pressure system will form near the Maine coast overnight. The
result will be widespread precipitation tonight, with various
precipitation types expected.

Various deterministics and ensembles have trended a little bit
colder over the last few runs which may portend to a slightly
longer period of wintry precipitation inland from the coast
(roughly KLEW to KAUG for example) before a change to rain
occurs prior to ending late tonight or early sunday morning is
expected. The mountains will experience mainly snow and/or mixed
precipitation. One thing the guidance does agree on is that
this will be a fast moving system, with precipitation quickly
moving from SW to NE tonight which should largely be out of the
area Sunday morning.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for portions of the NH
mountains where and snow or sleet should turn to a period of
freezing rain tonight and cause for slippery travel in spots.
Elsewhere, snow and sleet amounts should remain below advisory
criteria. Across southern NH the main precipitation type is
expected to be plain rain although some wet snowflakes and sleet
may mix in initially this evening.

There may be some drizzle in the dry slot Sunday morning but
otherwise the measurable precipitation should be done by around
12z. However, the upper level low moves over the region in the
afternoon which should keep clouds around with snow showers in
the mountains and foothills. Westerly winds will become gusty
during the afternoon all zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Evening Update...

No notable changes to the long term forecast as much of next
week looks seasonably cool. Monday looks breezy as low pressure
stalls across the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure gradually
builds in for the middle of the week.

Full Discussion...

Key Message: Near to below normal temps thru the extended.
Generally below normal precip chances outside of the mtns until
late in the week.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated. Some more
widespread wintry weather possible late next week.

Forecast Details: By Sun night we will be back in the post-
frontal northwest flow. Forecast sounding show steep low level
lapse rates with temps near the warm end of the dendritic growth
zone. This combined with ample low level moisture should result
in plenty of snow shower activity thru midweek. Inversion
heights are forecast somewhat below the summits for the high
peaks...and forecast Froude numbers are pretty close to 1. While
it is early yet that is some suggestion that snow showers will
stick closer to the terrain and unblocked flow with flurries to
the coast is not likely at this time.

Otherwise the week will start chilly and gradually moderate
thru the remainder. The next widespread precip chance arrives
late in the work week. Current ensemble forecasts indicate a
well positioned high pressure to help hold cold air over the
interior...though there remains plenty of spread in timing and
location. The set up is there for another round of wintry
weather...especially across the northern half of the forecast
area. Currently the NBM does not have any appreciable
probabilities of snow...but knowing that it struggles with cold
air damming scenarios I have ensured that snow is in the
forecast vs freezing rain/rain only.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR expected through this afternoon except for
HIE, where MVFR CIGs are expected through early this morning.
Restrictions are likely to lower this evening as rain and some
wintry weather moves in to the area. IFR conditions are expected
most terminals tonight. Restrictions stay down through the day
on Sunday as the low continues to move across northern New
England.

Long Term...Once winds turn westerly especially north of
westerly Sun night conditions south of the mtns will quickly
improve to VFR. MVFR CIGs are likely to linger north of the
mtns...including HIE...into Mon if not Tue. It will also be
gusty Sun night into Mon. Surface gusts in excess of 25 kt are
likely for all terminals. VFR conditions expected until the end
of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure moves in tonight, shifting winds to
southwesterlies. Winds and seas strengthen on Sunday, with Gale
force winds likely by the end of the day on the outer waters.
A gale watch remains in effect for the ocean waters.

Long Term...Behind the upper trof west winds will remain gusty
overnight Sun. The core of the strongest winds look to stay
along and south of the forecast area Sun night at least...so
this is where gale force gusts are most likely to occur. I have
issued a gale watch for the waters south of Cape Elizabeth thru
Mon. Winds will remain gusty in the cold advection and become
more uniform across all waters Mon. However the NBM wind gusts
seem a tad high based on forecast soundings...so I did not have
the confidence for a watch across all waters for Mon. Beyond Mon
winds and seas will gradually diminish thru the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for MEZ007-008-009-012.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NHZ001>007.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster/Palmer
LONG TERM...Clair/Legro